The Los Angeles mayoral election, once considered a coronation rather than a contest, has become the race to watch – thanks to former TV star-turned-Republican candidate Spencer Pratt.
Pratt, if nothing else, understands the value of performance and storytelling. And he’s used that to turn what should have been a sleepy mayoral race into a truly competitive one that has captivated much of the country.
Indeed, a new poll from Emerson College shows that incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has just an 8-point lead over Pratt (30% to 22%), with progressive Democrat Nithya Raman (19%) in third.
Critically, Pratt more than doubled his support since March, when the same poll had him at 10%.
Interestingly, Pratt’s rise – Bass and Raman saw 10-point increases – between March and May come as the share of undecided voters has collapsed from 51% in March to just 16% in the most recent survey.
To be sure, the significant decline in undecided voters – somewhat expected as the race nears – coincides with two developments that have been tailwinds for Pratt.
First, his ads have gone viral and have proven remarkably effective at shining a light on Bass’ time in office, particularly vis-à-vis the Palisades fire recovery and ongoing quality of life issues plaguing the city.
One ad contrasts the pristine homes of Bass and Raman with Pratt’s – which burned down during last year’s tragic wildfires – criticizing them for failed leadership and “not living in the mess they created.”
In a city still struggling with recovery efforts, Pratt’s message speaks volumes.
Another ad, wholly created by artificial intelligence, shows Bass walking through homeless encampments, drug-filled parks, and fiery streets, slamming her for doing little to nothing about the very issues she first campaigned on.
“If you liked the last four years, you’re going to love the next four,” A.I.-generated Bass says.
Plainly, while Pratt’s status as a Republican in a city that has not elected a Republican mayor in almost 30 years makes him an underdog, he is undoubtedly speaking to Angelenos’ very real frustrations.
Likewise, while Pratt’s ads have generated a considerable amount of attention, his in-person appearances have bolstered his standing as a legitimate candidate to advance from the non-partisan primary.
To that end, Pratt’s improved chances have not gone unnoticed, by political insiders, donors, nor his opponents.
In early April, political betting site Kalshi gave him just a 10% chance of winning the election – he’s now sitting at 25%.
Similarly, the odds of a Bass v. Pratt general election have gone from 6% on April 30th to 77% now.
Notably, while Pratt’s rise appears relatively recent, he has been building momentum for months. Since January, he has secured donations from LA royalty like Lakers owner Jeanie Buss, as well as billionaire investor Dan Loeb.
Further, Hollywood has taken note, lending Pratt’s campaign star power in a city famous for it. Grammy winner David Foster and producer Jeff Jenkins have become fundraisers and donors, ensuring Pratt has the cash to stay in the race.
Politically, Pratt’s impact has been felt as well. After he made waves during the first debate – where he blasted Bass and often made Raman appear unprepared and overwhelmed – his two Democratic opponents backed out of the second and final debate.
In that same vein, Bass has increasingly signaled that she understands her main competition is coming from the center-right, not the left as many had assumed when Raman entered the race.
As one Bass spokesperson reportedly told the NY Post, “Raman started this race with high expectations, but she continues to fall short – with the debate a stark example of her not being up to the job.”
The spokesman continued, “Repeated votes to allow [homeless] encampments near schools and to shrink LAPD is not what Los Angeles needs.”
And while the Bass campaign’s statement appears straightforward, it also underscores Pratt’s growing momentum, given that Pratt has continuously hammered Bass over the same issues – homelessness and policing.
Put another way, for Bass, an incumbent who retains the critical support of powerful labor unions to move to the center is a clear acknowledgment that she understands Pratt’s appeal.
At the same time, by drawing attention to quality of life issues that many Angelenos feel Bass has been unable to address, Pratt is clearly speaking to a large contingent of voters.
Per the Luskin Center’s Quality of Life Index, LA residents’ satisfaction is at historic lows.
While fire recovery efforts are the largest factor (56% dissatisfied), the report notes that eight of the nine categories comprising the index saw declines, with six reaching historic lows.
Ultimately, Angelenos’ rising dissatisfaction has become a considerable vulnerability for Mayor Bass, who finds herself in a surprisingly tight race that she likely did not expect.
With an approval rating 25-points underwater (31% approve vs. 56% disapprove), Bass is especially vulnerable to an upstart like Pratt, who is running an extremely media savvy campaign built on an “average guy” persona and speaking to kitchen table issues that animate voters.
Taken together, it increasingly appears that Spencer Pratt has turned the Los Angeles mayoral race on its head. A political outsider and Republican in a heavily Democratic city is now a favorite to make the general election, where anything could happen.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.