What’s next in the still-undecided California governor’s race? Insiders weigh in

(Inside California Politics) — With a new poll showing a new top candidate in the California governor’s race, Inside California Politics host Nikki Laurenzo spoke this week with two political insiders about the state of the campaign.

In that survey, conducted by Emerson College Polling in partnership with Inside California Politics, Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra took a narrow lead in the race.

Both analysts — Republican strategist Rob Stutzman and Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta — weighed in on whether Becerra’s viral KTLA interview could hurt the now-top-polling candidate.

“If you had seen a transcript of that with no names attached, you could easily conclude that was Donald Trump talking to a reporter,” Stutzman said of Becerra’s pre-interview question of whether it was for a “profile piece” and not a “gotcha piece.”

Stutzman addressed the role Dana Williamson’s plea deal will play in the race. He noted that Williamson’s attorney laid the conspiracy at the feet of Sean McCluskie, not Becerra.

“It certainly helps him a great deal, but it’s not going to stop his opponents from attacking,” Stutzman said.

Even though Tom Steyer’s support has shot up from 4% in December to 17% — and a virtual tie for second — in May, Acosta says the Democratic billionaire may have “hit a ceiling.”

“I think voters are like, ‘We’ve heard everything we can about Steyer. What’s left?” Acosta said.

Katie Porter has faced criticism for a recent ad that elevated a negative viral moment showing the then-congresswoman berating a staffer. Stutzman, however, said the choice to run the ad shows Porter’s campaign had no other choice in a tough position.

“What that means is the campaign discovered, ‘We can’t get past this, so we have to talk about it,’” Stutzman said. “She’s literally on debate stages and in ads saying, ‘Let’s talk about my temperament,’ when no one else is saying, ‘Hey, let’s talk about your temperament.’ But the voters have made judgements about her temperament.”

Is Porter held to a different standard than her male rivals, as several recent columns have suggested? Acosta says he’s heard from Democratic women voters who say they did not like Porter’s treatment of her staffer.

“We all work for tough bosses, but that’s one of those [moments] where it probably crossed the line for a lot of people,” he said.

Democratic voters are afraid of making a mistake, Acosta said, so they’re holding onto their ballots until the last moment. The slow pace of returning ballots shows that although just 12% of voters are undecided, and many say they could still change their minds.

“We’re seeing it statewide; turnout is not going through the roof,” Acosta said.

As for the two Republicans in the race, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, Stutzman says they “really don’t like each other” but seem to have a truce in televised debates as they know the best shot at victory for the party is the increasingly unlikely scenario where both finish in the top two.

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