It would seem only logical that surging fuel prices would change the calculus for travel this Memorial Day weekend. Surely, one would think, spikes in air fare or $6-a-gallon gas will encourage people to stay home.
But, apparently, logic is in short supply for anyone hell-bent to get to Disneyland. Or Monterey. Or Tahoe. This may in fact be another record year, according to numbers from Doug Yakel, spokesperson for San Francisco International Airport. He anticipates more than 620,000 air travelers at the facility from Friday through Monday, a 2.5% increase over last Memorial Day.
Across the bay, nearly 100,000 passengers will take off or land at Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport, marking a slight dip from 113,000 in 2025. Airport staff remain upbeat, assuring their hub will remain busy over the next four days. Flight schedules in Oakland suggest that some travelers may be skipping short flights in favor of driving. For a family of four, the math is simple: a car trip costs the same whether one person or four are inside, whereas flying requires four separate tickets.
Transportation officials expect to see these trends play out on roads and freeways. Across the country, some 45 million Americans will stray at least 50 miles from home between Thursday and Monday, the American Automobile Association projects. This estimate is on par with last year, and forecasters say that, once again, the vast majority of people — about 39 million — will drive.
“Demand for gasoline is remarkably inelastic,” said John Goodwin, a spokesperson at the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. “Those who are dead set on traveling this holiday weekend are going to do so regardless of the price of gas. Any decline in overall traffic is going to be marginal.”
So people heading out of the Bay Area on Thursday or Friday afternoon can brace for slowdowns at the normal interregional hotspots. Routes to Southern California will likely choke up at Pacheco Pass or various points on Highway 101, as well as the Altamont Pass as drivers crawl toward Interstate 5.
By contrast, congestion may ease up on Interstate 80, owing to new express lanes through Solano County. Day-trippers to the Sierra Nevada or Napa for the BottleRock music festival can pay a toll to bypass the worst chokepoints in Fairfield and Vacaville, where tourists hit local traffic near the outlet stores.
If all of these predictions bear out, they will underscore a perennial truth of Memorial Day weekend: Whatever else changes, the traffic does not. A war in the Middle East has convulsed oil markets, but we’re still ready for the unofficial start of summer and determined to get to those familiar destinations. Thousands of people will grit their teeth and spend an extra $20 or $30 at the pump.
Perhaps vacationers will cut costs elsewhere, Goodwin speculated. Maybe they won’t supersize their meals at a roadside restaurant. Or maybe they will stay at budget inns. Some might count their credit card points and try to score discounts on flights or hotels; others will pillage the complimentary breakfast buffet.
“We might economize parts of the trip,” Goodwin mused. “But we’re still making the trip.”