Why are Republicans more excited to turn out than they have in the past? And why are Democrats holding onto their ballots? Political experts weigh in.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Voter turnout remains low just over one week out from California’s June primary election.
According to election data expert Paul Mitchell’s ballot return tracker, about 7% of ballots have been returned, as of Monday afternoon. That’s about 2 million ballots returned, out of the over 23 million sent out to all registered voters in the state.
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With races ranging from the top-of-the-ticket contest to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom to congressional, legislative and local offices, election officials and political observers are closely watching turnout patterns across the state.
While lower turnout in a primary for a nonpresidential election has been the norm, experts say they’re noticing interesting voter behavior this time around, especially as it relates to California’s top-two primary system. Under this so-called “jungle primary,” the top two vote getters of a race, regardless of political party, advance to the runoff general election.
“In these early days, it’s always the case of it’s better to be here and not be needed than to not be here and be needed,” Eben Burgoon, a Sacramento County election inspector told ABC10 Monday morning.
We met Burgoon at the California Museum early voting location on Memorial Day morning. It was a slow day — other than election workers, no voters were present.
Burgoon has volunteered at Sacramento County polling locations since the pandemic. He said turnout so far has been slow but “diverse.”
“I think primaries are one of the most important moments to get your voice into the ballot box because there’s a multitude of candidates, but it means people are a little slower about making up their minds,” Burgoon said.
That trend is exactly what statewide data shows when it comes to voter participation just over one week out from primary election day.
“We do see higher relative Republican turnout,” Mitchell said, noting turnout for the party is double what it was at this point during the 2022 Gubernatorial Primary.
For Republicans, candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco have energized voters who feel competitive in a statewide race.
“So that gives voters, Republican voters, something to vote for,” USC Center for Inclusive Democracy director Dr. Mindy Romero said.
Matt Shupe, spokesperson for the California Republican Party, said this governor’s race is a breath of fresh air for his party, noting Republicans have historically questioned whether voting matters in California.
“Republicans in this state have this sort of doom and gloom sense of why bother to vote, it’s a deep blue state,” Shupe said.
He also pointed to increased early voting and voting by mail, which the party has encouraged. This messaging by the state party, a sharp contrast to the narrative communicated at the federal level, in which President Donald Trump has discouraged and even recently tried to restrict mail-in voting.
California, ever since the pandemic, mails a vote-by-mail ballot to all registered voters. Shupe acknowledged his party has accepted the direction of the state, adding it’s no longer election day in California but rather “election month.”
“Republicans need to vote Republican and mail in their ballot today. It’s very simple. We need to get everybody’s vote in now,” Shupe said.
For Democrats, experts said the crowded field of gubernatorial candidates has made voting decisions more complicated.
“We see this real drop in Democratic turnout particularly among some older, really high propensity voters,” Mitchell said.
“I think we do have this added factor where a lot of voters who are holding onto their ballots have a preferred candidate, and they actually might not vote for their preferred candidate and instead vote for a candidate that’s more viable because they’re concerned about this impact of the top two (and having their party be locked out of the general runoff election entirely),” Mitchell said.
He added, “This mechanics of our election system, the way our primary works, is impacting how voters are viewing their vote.”
Specifically, Mitchell said, that is called “strategic voting.”
It’s nothing new, though very evident in this election, the data expert pointed out. He compared the state of voters’ minds to that of the 2020 presidential primary, saying some voters still seem to be waiting for some sort of signal before they make their final decision.
“This is kind of a parallel to the 2020 presidential primary for Democratic voters because they’re looking for the signal of OK everybody, who are we going to get behind? And this idea of Democratic voters all holding hands and jumping in together at the end,” Mitchell said, explaining that Democrats in the end rallied behind then-candidate Joe Biden, amid a field of other established Democrats, including Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren.
With a few more polls set to be released ahead of primary day, Mitchell said, voters will likely drift towards the leading Democratic candidate in those surveys.
Dr. Romero agreed, saying strategic voting is nothing new, especially in California with the unique top two system, and that though it may be frustrating, it is part of democracy.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks downplayed concerns about Democrats delaying their votes, acknowledging while those initial worries were there, “Democrats and Republicans are beginning to move towards certain candidates.
Romero encouraged voters who are still undecided to participate in the election, and quickly, especially if they’re planning to vote by mail.
“And get to a point where you feel as comfortable as possible with that vote,” Romero said.
California’s primary election is Tuesday, June 2. Election officials are encouraging voters casting ballots by mail to return them as soon as possible to help ensure they are counted. Ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and can arrive up to a week later.
The most recent polling of the gubernatorial race — backed and funded by the state Democratic party — shows Republican Steve Hilton in the lead, followed closely by Democrat Xavier Becerra. In third place is Democrat Tom Steyer.
What separates the leading democratic candidates in the California governor’s race
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