Candidates in California’s gubernatorial race, from left, Matt Mahan, Xavier Becerra, Chad Bianco, Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter look on during a debate Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in San Francisco.
Jason Henry/Associated Press
Just a few days before the deadline to submit their ballots, plenty of Californians remain stuck on whom to vote for, perhaps because they aren’t pleased with their eight major-party options.
Some are undoubtedly waiting to find out: Who’s the least-offensive candidate (to me) the polls actually say has a chance?
If that’s you, now is the time to pay heed. Three of the best pollsters of California (the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, the Public Policy Institute of California and Emerson College Polling) are releasing their final polls this week.
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PPIC’s is already out. The other two are expected over the next several days.
PPIC finds Becerra surging …
After the fall of former Rep. Eric Swalwell amid accusations of sexual assault, the race entered a volatile period: At first, activist and investor Tom Steyer appeared to be the most formidable candidate standing. Rep. Katie Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, both trailing, were looking for openings (including by snagging endorsements).
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But all of a sudden, an also-ran began to surge: former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. PPIC’s final poll has him three points ahead of Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton, and eight points ahead of Steyer.
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By contrast, Porter and Mahan remain stuck in the low double or high single digits.
That slight but significant edge has translated to a much more lopsided lead on another metric: betting odds on markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. On both platforms, ordinary people are putting their money where their mouth is, yielding a two-thirds probability that Becerra advances and wins the November race.
Betting markets aren’t perfect — Sacramento political strategist Paul Mitchell warns they reflect the priors of “crypto bros,” as well as people who are willing to lose money to move the odds — but they have lately proven prescient.
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… But the Berkeley poll is worth waiting for
If you’re not a Becerra fan and worried your candidate is toast, you might want to wait for one more data point: the Berkeley IGS poll, due in the next couple days.
For one thing, PPIC’s poll was fielded all the way back from May 14 to 18. In that time, some supporters of lower-polling candidates may have shifted allegiance strategically. In theory, if more Porter and Mahan fans break for Steyer than Becerra, that could put him over the top.
That’s exactly what the Steyer campaign claims is happening. “California primaries have a clear history of late movement,” the campaign wrote in a press release, “which PPIC has missed.” If so, Berkeley IGS should capture it: They were in the field more recently.
There’s also IGS’s sterling reputation.
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“The best poll is the Berkeley poll. It’s a triple-A plus plus plus poll,” said Mitchell, citing their sophisticated methods for reaching, segmenting and communicating with voters.
Why is Becerra doing so well?
Even if Berkeley finds a better result for Steyer (or any other candidate), it’s unlikely to find Becerra in a weak position.
How did Becerra come in from behind? PPIC lead pollster Mark Baldassare thinks it comes down to two questions his outfit asks voters: What is the most important problem in the U.S.? And what’s the most important in California?
“In the U.S., it’s threats to democracy. In California, it’s the cost of living,” said Baldassare.
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The theory goes that voters who prioritized the first issue — the Trump administration’s erosion of democratic norms — found an early champion in Swalwell, who staked his political identity on vocal opposition to Trump. After all, that pitch is tried and true.
“In the 2024 election, what was it about Adam Schiff?” said Baldassare. “Well, he took on Trump, and then he was elected senator.”
With Swalwell out of the picture, it may not have been clear to Trump-driven voters that they’d find what they wanted in Steyer, Porter, Mahan or the others, who either had baggage of their own or emphasized more local issues. Enter Becerra, who’s emphasized his battles with Trump as California’s attorney general.
Also, many voters may more easily see themselves in Becerra, who frequently touts his humble beginnings. Taken together, said Republican political strategist Mike Madrid, those qualities may have endeared him to voters in what a Chronicle analysis identified as Urban Working Class areas — who are mostly Hispanic.
What does this mean for your choice?
If you’re a Republican who wants a real choice in November, your choice appears clear. Hilton is likely the only candidate with a chance of making the general.
If you’re a Democrat, you know what to do if you’re a fan of Becerra or Steyer. You’re hoping that your support will push your candidate into the top two.
The choice is more awkward for fans of Mahan, Porter or another candidate. You may find yourself wanting to vote for the lesser of two evils — especially if you think Steyer, who looks behind, is preferable to Becerra, who looks ahead.
Mitchell previously urged Chronicle readers to vote with their heart. Baldassare didn’t have an opinion, but reflected that this election was most unusual: Especially after Prop 50, voters are highly motivated to oppose an administration most of them hate, but don’t know exactly what to do about it.
“In other circumstances, they might just say forget it, I’m going to take a pass,” said Baldassare. “But now they say, hey, this is an important election. I have to do something. I have to make the right decision.”
Finally, if you do vote last minute …
Don’t put your ballot in the mail. It might not be postmarked on time. Take it to a designated ballot box (not a mailbox), post office or a polling place.