Odds for Next California Governor: Trade on Election Markets

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The California governor’s race is finally approaching its home stretch after months of turmoil to determine who will replace the term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom
The Golden State is a Democratic bulwark, but as the June 2 primary approaches, current polling suggests that the November general election will feature Democrat Xavier Becerra facing Republican Steve Hilton
Prediction markets offer options to pick the eventual winner, the next governor of California

The winding road to be the next California governor is finally reaching its penultimate destination as the primary to whittle the choices down to two is set to take place on June 2.

As it stands, the final three realistic contenders are Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, and Republican Steve Hilton.

If any candidate benefited from former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s catastrophic flameout, it was Becerra. When Swalwell was the clear frontrunner, Becerra’s poll numbers were barely registering. After Swalwell’s spontaneous combustion, Becerra became a conciliatory choice for those who couldn’t stomach or didn’t trust the other Democrat candidates, Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.

At the very least, Becerra is a known entity and has the least baggage among his fellow Dems in the race. Steyer remains within striking distance, at least according to the polls.

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Hilton is providing logical solutions that mirror those of past GOP governors who managed to win in California, notably former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. He doesn’t care about people’s personal business, instead focusing on reducing taxes, lowering energy costs, addressing the housing issue, finding solutions to the homeless problem, and supporting the crackdown on illegal immigration.

Several months ago, there was fear that the number of Democrats in the race could split the votes sufficiently for two Republicans to accrue enough support to be the two candidates left standing for November. However, that has seemingly resolved itself with Hilton emerging as the GOP’s preference and the next-leading Republican, the mercurial Chad Bianco, declining precipitously in the polls.

The Democrats did not tactically reduce their list of candidates. They did it the way Democrats usually do: they self-destructed.

Prediction markets have been like a roller coaster since Swalwell left the race. Those who want to jump in can do so and potentially profit if they make the correct pick.

Odds for California Governor’s Race

Market volume is above $37 million and rising.

Becerra is the overwhelming favorite on the markets at 70%. Steyer is next at around 20%. Hilton is running third at just over 9%.

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Amazingly, Bianco is at over 2%, and Porter is a shade over zero. She’s slightly ahead of Mahan.

People who want to weigh in can use the Kalshi promo code to get a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $10 in trades have been completed.

For those unsure about the winner, there are other markets available, including voter turnout, vote percentages, and the matchup on Election Day.

The market rules require that the selected candidate be elected California governor based on the 2026 election. For example, those who pick Becerra will see the market resolve to Yes if he wins. The California Secretary of State will verify the outcome.

See a detailed breakdown of election betting odds for the California Governor’s race below.

Xavier Becerra

Becerra is a familiar face in California as its former Attorney General. The 68-year-old is a lawyer who represented California in the U.S. House of Representatives and was President Joseph R. Biden’s Secretary of Health and Human Services. He’s at 23% in the latest statewide poll.

He is focusing on housing, helping working-class residents with rising costs, providing affordable health care, dealing with the growing threat of artificial intelligence, and combating climate change. The combination of Becerra’s recognizability and being a “safe” choice has helped him, as other candidates have self-immolated. He comes across as a classic Democrat, not wading into the failing Democratic Socialist platforms of Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman.

At the moment, barring a scandal, he should be seen as the clear favorite to be elected governor.

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Tom Steyer

Steyer will be 69 next month. He has everything a Democratic candidate for elected office could possibly want.

He’s a billionaire, so he doesn’t need to worry about groveling for donations; he has a long history of supporting progressive causes going back to the 1980s, when he supported Walter Mondale for president; he wants to lower costs for everyday Californians; he wants to tax the wealthy for improved public services; and he is against ICE aggression.

But voters do not like him. He tried to run for president in 2020, but that went nowhere. He’s spent close to $200 million on this race…and he’s still behind Becerra.

It’s certainly possible that a sufficient number of Democrats turn out in the primary and give Steyer just enough votes to put him on the ballot in November and prevent a Becerra vs Hilton one-on-one in which anything could happen. Still, given how he’s failed to gain traction (he’s at 15% in the most recent poll) in any of his political runs, it’s hard to see him changing that narrative this time around.

Steve Hilton

Hilton, 56, is second in the latest poll at 20%.

There are two ways to look at his candidacy:

It’s borderline miraculous that he made it this far and is still viable as a Republican in California; based on that, perhaps he can somehow win
There’s almost no chance he will win in November if he gets that far

President Trump has endorsed him. Normally that would be seen as a negative. But at this point in California, with so many people having had enough of the state’s lurch to the extreme left, the homeless problem, the endless bureaucracy, the complete lack of leadership, and rampant crime, maybe…maybe…maybe the electorate will say enough’s enough with the likes of Becerra, who’s been in a position of power in the state for years and done little to change its downward trajectory, and they’ll give Hilton a shot.

Those who want to try and secure a big profit can roll the dice on Hilton, but they should do so knowing that Becerra is the overwhelming favorite who will almost assuredly win in November.

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