Tom Steyer during his election night watch party at the Regency Ballroom in San Francisco on Tuesday, June 02, 2026. Steyer is a Democratic candidate for governor.
Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle
Are you a Tom Steyer fan who’s looking at his third-place position this morning and feeling down?
We’re here to tell you: The former hedge fund manager turned liberal activist still has a path to advance. Just maybe a very narrow one.
As of 12:30 am Wednesday, former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican, led the tally with nearly 27.6% of the vote. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, wa close behind him at just over 25.5% and Steyer was in third at 19.6%. Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco had 11%; every other candidate had less than 5% each. Only the top two candidates, regardless of party, will move on to the general election in November.
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The logic of a Steyer comeback is simple, if a little punishing: Only about half the state vote has been counted. The rest will take more than a week to tally. But if Steyer performs significantly better in what’s left, that could push him past either former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra or former Fox News host Steve Hilton into the top two.
That assumption isn’t totally far-fetched. Two major things would need to happen for Steyer to break through.
The remaining vote needs to be a lot more Democratic
For one thing, last night’s results could reflect a “red mirage.” The vote already tallied is likely more Republican-leaning than the final totals will be, simply because plenty of Democrats voted late. One analysis by the New York Times suggests late ballots are particularly Democratic.
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That’s down to a number of reasons. For one thing, some Democrats always vote late: Young people as well as less-engaged voters tend to start paying attention just before election day. But there’s another dynamic at play this time: Some highly-engaged Democrats were waiting until the last minute on purpose, hoping for the race to take shape so that they wouldn’t waste their vote.
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More of that vote needs to break for Steyer
Even if lots of young voters and late deciders are Democratic, that probably isn’t enough to put Steyer over the edge. So far, Democratic candidates have netted about 60% of the vote counted. They’d need to get more than 80% of what’s left for Steyer to pass Hilton and come second just on Democratic turnout alone, assuming Steyer got a similar share of the Democratic vote to what he has received so far.
Instead, Steyer needs to hope that the outstanding Democrats prefer him by much larger margins. That’s not so crazy: Both of the groups we mentioned above — habitually late voters and strategic last-minute voters — could swing more towards Steyer rather than Becerra, in theory.
Younger voters are often more progressive than older ones, and Steyer has run to the left of his top Democratic competitors. Also, late-breaking voters may have converged on Steyer simply to minimize the chance that Hilton would advance.
What a successful scenario might look like
The realistic scenario for a Steyer breakthrough requires both of the following:
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Again, 25% of the vote counted so far went to Becerra, 39% to the Republicans, 20% to Steyer and 16% for the rest.
If, instead, say, 22% went to Becerra, just 31% collectively to the Republicans, and 10% to other Democrats, that would put Steyer winning 35% of the remaining vote — and potentially even placing a hair ahead of either Becerra or Hilton.
That would require a late rally of epic proportions — but stranger things have happened.