The Orange County Registrar of Voters is still counting votes. But after two decades of decline from their former dominance, Tuesday’s election displayed a marked upswing for local Republicans.

All numbers here are preliminary.

“Our voter turnout was really great,” OC Republican Party Chairman Will O’Neill told me. “I’m so proud of the effort to convince Republicans to get out and vote in this cycle.”

He said it helped that this time there was a competitive election for governor, with Republican Steve Hilton leading the pack at 27.6% of the vote. That contrasted with 2022, when Democrat Gavin Newsom cruised to re-election. 

O’Neill said even the surprise insurgent campaign of Spencer Pratt for Los Angeles mayor gave OC Republicans hope. Pratt currently stands in second place at 30% to Democratic Mayor Karen Bass’s 35%.

Elections are a game of numbers. OC voter registration runs 695,270 Democratic, 644,577 Republican and 447,429 No Party Preference, the rest third parties. In this election, according to O’Neill’s early tally, 33,343 more Republicans than Democrats voted. He said, “I fully expect that, when all data is compiled, Republicans will have outvoted our 2022 numbers by sizable margins, too.”

Democrats nationally have taken up “affordability” as their slogan due to prices rising this year, much of that due to soaring fuel prices from the Iran War. The high prices also are Republicans’ main issue in Orange County. 

“Online extremists will blame whomever they don’t agree with,” O’Neill said. “But I suspect most people understand that California already was the most expensive state in America. They understand the Strait of Hormuz potentially is fixable. But California gas prices keep going up by statute and will do so again in July.”

The gas tax passed in 2017 by the Democratic Legislature currently stands at 61.2 cents per gallon. On July 1, the state will adjust that upward based on the rise in the California Consumer Price Index.

O’Neill was elected party chairman in January 2025. When talking about running for the post with predecessor Fred Whitaker, O’Neill said, “I really emphasized that I am 20 years younger than he is.” Whitaker said, “Look, we have to do better at the social media side, the digitizing side, and the data side.”

O’Neill said the party this year is emphasizing “data analytics” and “we’ll just keep getting better at it.”

So far that’s paying off.

He said every OC GOP-endorsed candidate is in the top two and moving on to the general election. These included, in races with three or more candidates: Denis Bilodeau for the state Board of Equalization; for Assembly, Gracey Van Der Mark for District 72 and Paulo Morales for the District 67; and for the U.S. House, Jenny Rae Le Roux for District 47 and David Pan for District 46.

Another victory was Tim Shaw for OC supervisor from the 4th District. With 34%, he beat Democrat Connor Traut’s 31%. The two will face off in November. I wrote two columns about Shaw being challenged by Fullerton Mayor Fred Jung, a Democrat turned No Party Preference who is championing higher taxes in his city.  Jung was oddly endorsed by the Republican Lincoln Club. He got just 19%.

According to FPPC Form 460 filings, as of May 16, Jung spent $293,480.64. Traut spent $223,358.18. And Shaw spent $67,968.87. 

In my March 12 column, I wondered why the Lincoln Club backed a former Democrat over the Republican Shaw. President Brandon Day told me, “Fred has a money advantage over his other opponents, and we think Fred is a business leader.”

It turned out Shaw’s frugality and efficient spending won out. Jung supporters wasted their dollars.

All-in-all, the primary was a good sign for Orange County Republicans.

I have to end with a warning things will be different for the Nov. 3 election. The economy is sinking from the war. Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens, uncertainty will increase insurance costs for shipping, keeping prices higher than before President Trump attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

Republicans rightly will blame Newsom and the Democratic Legislature for their misfeasance and malfeasance. But Democrats are nationalizing the election as a referendum on an unpopular president. We’ll see what happens.

John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board