Does Steyer still have a chance? Here’s what would need to happen

Observers seem to have already decided: The governor primary is over.

That’s true in one sense. It’s already clear that former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, will finish in the top two and move to the general election. The Associated Press declared on Friday that Becerra will advance.

The question is whether Becerra will be joined on the November ballot by former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican. But while those putting their money on betting markets are saying yes, the AP has not yet called the No. 2 finisher.

So does big-spending former hedge fund manager and progressive activist Tom Steyer still have a chance? 

By 4 p.m. or so Tuesday we’ll know better (and you can track results here). But there’s a reason the AP hasn’t yet called the race. Everything and more would have to go right for Steyer in subsequent drops — and it could. Here’s how.

On election night, Hilton led Becerra narrowly, with Steyer in a fairly distant third. At that time, we projected that Steyer would need about 35% of the outstanding vote to get into the top two, whether that meant outpacing Becerra or Hilton by significant margins.

In subsequent vote drops, Becerra’s share of the newly counted vote has only risen, and he has consistently remained the top vote-getter. But Steyer’s share has risen faster, and in votes tallied Monday, Steyer’s share of the new vote was considerably larger than Hilton’s, suggesting that late deciders were not only very Democratic, but were indeed disproportionately choosing Steyer over other candidates.

If that trend accelerates further, there is a narrow scenario in which Steyer edges out Hilton in the final tally. For that to happen, he would probably need a third of the 1.3 million or so votes remaining — and in that scenario, that probably means getting considerably more of the outstanding votes than Becerra.

The odds of that are lengthened by the kinds of places that have yet to report votes. Some of these places, like left-leaning Humboldt, Mendocino, Sonoma and Yolo counties, may pad Steyer’s margins. But others, like populous Fresno and Riverside counties, aren’t home to big proportions of upscale progressives — the kinds of areas that have given Steyer his biggest margins so far.

Steyer’s winning scenario is far-fetched, but it’s not totally impossible.