Republican Steve Hilton advanced this week to California’s November governor’s race, but the first public look at his matchup with Democrat Xavier Becerra shows the former political commentator starting the general election at a steep disadvantage.
The poll by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, conducted May 19-24 before voting was completed in the June 2 primary election and the matchup became clear, found 52% of the state’s registered voters support Becerra, while Hilton was the choice of 31% and 17% were undecided. Becerra led Hilton among both men and women, all age groups and races, and in every region of the state except the North Coast and the Sierra.
Berkeley IGS noted that Becerra’s 20-point lead over Hilton reflects the fact that “Democratic registrants outnumber GOP voters in this state by 20 percentage points, giving Democratic candidates a huge advantage in general elections.”
“Xavier Becerra’s lead makes it increasingly likely that California will elect its first Latino Governor in November,” said IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora. “In a state with a long-standing Latino plurality whose electoral and financial power is only recently becoming more widely recognized, the potential election of Becerra reflects in part decades of Latino organizing that has built coalitions across communities, not just mobilized one constituency.”
Becerra would not be the first Latino to serve as California governor. Romualdo Pacheco, a Republican born in Santa Barbara and of Mexican ancestry, was elected lieutenant governor and served as governor for about 10 months in 1875 after Gov. Newton Booth left office for the U.S. Senate. But Becerra would be the first Latino elected directly to the office.
The poll surveyed 8,578 registered California voters, 5,472 of whom were considered likely primary voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.
President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton, which helped boost him over fellow Republican Chad Bianco in the primary, may weigh on the Republican in November, the poll suggested. While the president remains popular among the state’s Republicans, the poll found only 29% of California registered voters overall approve of Trump’s job performance and 69% disapprove.
The Berkeley poll found that both Becerra and Hilton are popular with registered voters of their own parties, with more than four in five showing support. But among voters who register with no party preference or other parties, Becerra led Hilton 43% to 28%, with 29% undecided.
The results suggest Hilton will have to broaden his coalition and compete for voters who’ve historically tended to vote Democratic. Hilton was in Los Angeles on Thursday with Gloria Romero, a Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor who advanced this week to the November election, where she will face Democrat Fiona Ma. The pair were at a Hispanic-community event focused on affordability and other issues, according to his campaign.
In a statement Tuesday, after The Associated Press projected Hilton, a former political commentator, had edged out billionaire progressive Democrat Tom Steyer to advance to the November election against Becerra, Hilton said it is “an incredible honor to be chosen by Californians to lead the movement for change in the greatest state in the greatest nation on earth.”
“I can’t wait to get started on the most high-energy campaign this state has ever seen,” Hilton said of his bid to become the first Republican elected statewide since 2006 when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was reelected.
Hilton campaign spokesman Hector Barajas said in a statement about Thursday’s poll that “Xavier Becerra is the last person who should be asking for a promotion.”
“The more voters learn about his record, the more they’ll see that Becerra isn’t the answer to California’s problems,” Barajas said. “He’s one of the reasons we have them.”
Becerra, who served as health secretary in the Biden administration and as a California attorney general, congressional representative and state lawmaker, said in a social media post Tuesday, “the challenges facing California won’t wait, and neither will we. Let’s carry this momentum all the way to November.”
The poll also found the same percentage of likely primary voters held unfavorable views of Becerra as did of Hilton, 38%. But 44% held favorable views of Becerra compared with 31% who held favorable views of Hilton.
Steyer, a former hedge fund founder who left his company to pursue environmental activism and politics, was viewed favorably by 39% of voters but unfavorably by 43%, the poll found.
Becerra signaled in a social media post Thursday the president’s unpopularity will be a point he’ll stress in the November campaign, suggesting his opponent will “hand Sacramento to Donald Trump.” On Wednesday, Becerra shared a Hilton post thanking Trump for his support in the primary campaign, and said: “All you need to know.”