Denny Hamlin’s winning streak — Nashville, Michigan, Pocono — has likely (“most certainly” might be the better phrase) come to an end, and now it’s Shane Van Gisbergen’s turn to take center stage. While Hamlin has been “him” lately, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to San Diego’s Coronado Street Course for the first time, and street courses are not where Hamlin shines or even glimmers. It’s SVG Nation this week, and all bets are on him. Seriously, he’s at -210 in the odds, followed by Connor Zilisch at +615.
As always, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi answer our most pressing questions and make predictions about the upcoming race.
The Anduril 250 at Coronado Street Course is Sunday at 4 p.m. ET on Prime Video and HBO Max.
Race winner odds for the Anduril 250
Hamlin is on a roll, winning the last three — count ’em, three! — straight, closing in on Tyler Reddick in the Cup standings, but street and road courses are not Hamlin’s forte. What are Hamlin’s chances for some success at San Diego, and, with this spectacular season, do you think he can reach the 60-60 club in his career?
Jeff: Hamlin’s chances this week are about as good as the Chargers moving back to San Diego. He is simply not a road course guy, and a street course is even tougher. He has said a top-15 finish would be a success, and that’s no exaggeration. Since Reddick should run in the top five and will be in contention to win the race if something happens to van Gisbergen, that could be a problem. Hamlin needs to try to limit the damage for the next two weeks (with another road course at Sonoma coming next). That said, he’ll win more races this season and get more poles — it’s not out of the question he could approach 70 career victories this season.
Jordan: The hot streak Hamlin has been on is, in all likelihood, coming to an end at San Diego. Road courses are not his strength — he’s won just once in his career on a road course — making this week and next week at Sonoma all about limiting how many points he bleeds to Reddick. Looking at the big picture, 70 wins feels obtainable for Hamlin by the time he retires after the 2027 season.
How will the street and road courses left on the Cup Series schedule impact the standings?
Jeff: This is a crucial two weeks for the standings, as road course specialists need to collect a large chunk of points while bubble drivers who aren’t as good at these circuits need to finish the race and grab whatever results they can. And the focus should primarily rest on SVG, who is 14th in the standings but only 10 points inside the cutoff line. He could very well expand his cushion to 50 or 60 points in the next two weeks, and he almost has to in order to have a realistic chance to make the Chase. If even one of these next two races ends in a crash or mechanical failure, it could doom SVG’s entire season. So regardless of whether he wins, he’ll be a major storyline in these two California races.
Jordan: Beyond SVG and his quest to make the Chase, these two road course races will also have an impact on the battle between Reddick and Hamlin for the regular-season championship. As noted above, Hamlin isn’t the best on road courses, whereas Reddick is. This provides the 23XI Racing driver a great opportunity to pad his points’ lead over Hamlin, which has shrunk considerably in recent weeks.
This is the first time a race has occurred at the Naval Base Coronado course. Can you talk about the intricacies of the course and how teams will need to prepare?
Jeff: Drivers are saying this could be the most challenging course in NASCAR history (really!) with highly technical turns, a variety of surface changes (old asphalt, new asphalt and even airfield tarmac) and all on what is NASCAR’s longest track (3.4 miles). There are some very tight areas which could cause pile-ups and create a chaotic race, and this will be a day of survival in many ways. Some drivers said it took them as much as an hour to learn the track on the simulator, and even so, they aren’t sure how accurate it is. After all, no one has ever seen this course before! It’s a bit of a guessing game until the drivers get on the track Friday, and they’ll only have 50 minutes of practice. So this could be a wild weekend with a lot of unknowns, but the backdrop (aircraft carrier, water, San Diego skyline, hangars) will be spectacular.
Jordan: I’m glad you asked because on Friday, we spoke to drivers in-depth about their preparations for this race and how they expect the track to race. In short, though, several sections feature high-speed, flowing corners and other turns that are much slower and comparable to those in the Chicago Street Course. It’s a configuration that should lend itself to passing opportunities, while also likely some frantic and chaotic racing with a good amount of cautions.
Because of Trackhouse’s Project 91 program, Kevin Magnussen will make his NASCAR debut in San Diego. How does Magnussen’s Formula One experience weigh into his ability to challenge in the Anduril 250, and where do you see him finishing?
Jeff: Well this is certainly a good place to make a debut, as F1 drivers have plenty of experience on complicated, tight street circuits. The question is how quickly Magnussen will be able to get up to speed in a stock car. The course itself shouldn’t pose anywhere near as much of a challenge for him, but he has no familiarity with the car compared to others in the field. That said, it’s worth noting SVG won in his NASCAR debut a few years ago at the Chicago Street Course. I don’t think Magnussen will win, but a top-10 finish would be highly respectable and impressive.
Jordan: The biggest X-factor for Magnussen is whether he can avoid being caught up in what is expected to be a caution-filled race. Obviously, this is easier said than done, but if he can manage it, his leaving with a top-15 finish would be a satisfactory result in his NASCAR debut.
Who do you think has what it takes to win at San Diego? Can anyone take down van Gisbergen?
Jeff: The only person who can take down SVG is SVG — or some fluke circumstance. There’s always a chance his car could break or he could get caught up in some weird crash. Other than that, the race should be in his control, and he should absolutely destroy the field. It’s very rare to see a driver with minus-money odds, but SVG is justifiably a heavy favorite. A track like this is really his world, and everyone else is just living in it.
Jordan: Presuming the track doesn’t open up and swallow him whole, or his car doesn’t suffer a mechanical failure, SVG will win. The real question is by how much.
Which long shot do you think can win this week?
Jeff: Almost everyone in the field is a long shot based on SVG’s odds. By the time you get down to the fifth-best odds, Michael McDowell, you’re at +1535. So the question is really which driver could capitalize if SVG has a problem. Here are my power rankings — disclaimer: I’m writing this before seeing practice or qualifying — for Sunday’s race: Ty Gibbs (+1335), McDowell (+1535), Reddick (+835), Zilisch (+615), AJ Allmendinger (+2735) and Magnussen (+3665). Then I’d consider Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Chris Buescher and William Byron in some order to round out my top 10. If it’s someone other than those drivers, I’ll be surprised.
Jordan: Anyone other than SVG should be considered a long shot. So outside of him, Gibbs, Reddick and McDowell should be considered next best in class.