After progressive candidates who ran against the Democratic Party’s establishment-backed incumbents won big in U.S. House primaries in New York Tuesday, political observers and voters in Los Angeles are wondering whether the city’s mayoral election will have a similar outcome in November.

Mayor Karen Bass, who is seeking a second term, herself is being challenged by Democratic Socialist Nithya Raman. While Bass finished first, receiving 15% more votes compared to Raman, she also became the first mayoral incumbent in decades who failed to win the primary outright.

The trend of progressives or Democratic socialists winning primaries and general elections has been seen in blue states and liberal cities, such as New York City and Seattle, according to political science professor Dr. Fernando Guerra of the Loyola Marymount University.

“What’s been very interesting is that some of these Democratic socialists are not only winning, but they are defeating incumbents,” said Guerra, who is also NBC Los Angeles’ political contributor.

The low number of votes Bass garnered during the primary election should make Bass’ campaign very nervous about what could come in November as Americans — as well as Angelenos — are frustrated with the ever rising costs of living.

“To me, it’s very clear: voters in blue states and also in red states are concerned about the establishment,” Guerra said. “They are not happy with the quality of life; they are frustrated and don’t trust government anymore.”

Melanie Mason, POLITICO’s California bureau chief, said the primary election results from New York signal that voters want “new energy, new ideas” after being disappointed with the establishment’s leadership.

“Of course, Nithya Raman has been on the City Council since 2020, so she isn’t totally new. But she isn’t the incumbent mayor,” Mason said. “I think it remains to be seen how much she leans into the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America), but I think it’s absolutely predictable that she’s going to lean into the anti-establishment, I’m-the-change-agent, I’m-the-new-face kind of messaging”

What’s different about Raman compared to what happened in New York is that the councilwoman has broken with Democratic Socialists before. Progressive councilmembers on the LA City Council, including Eunisses Hernandez and Ysabel Jurado, endorsed Mayor Bass for reelection, not Raman. Raman’s recent denouncement of the “defund the police” policies also provoke the ire of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

Bass’ camp may be aware of the recent trend: the campaign announced that it has a new campaign manager. Julie Chavez Rodriguez, who ran campaigns for Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden, will take charge as Senior Strategist Doug Herman exited.

“I think it’s reflective of the fact that this is not the general election matchup that Karen Bass wanted,” Mason said. “Now that she’s running against a fellow Democrat I think it’s put a lot of pressure on her campaign to figure out how to differentiate herself.”

Chávez Rodríguez is a political strategist and organizer who has dedicated her career to advancing the rights of working people, and building leadership and power with and among communities of color, according to Bass’
campaign.

Most recently, she ran Unidos for Karen Bass 2026, an independent expenditure campaign focused on turning out Latino voters during the June primary.

She is also the granddaughter of César Chávez, who co-founded the United Farm Workers union.