Last week at San Diego, the unthinkable happened: Shane van Gisbergen didn’t win after being caught up in an accident, and he was plenty mad. However, it left the field wide open, and Corey Heim, in only his 13th Cup Series start, got an unlikely win at the first run on a challenging street course at Naval Base Coronado. This week at Sonoma, SVG is still firmly atop the odds boards and has extra motivation.

As for the points race, Denny Hamlin held his own last week and secured a top-15 finish; Tyler Reddick’s lead is now down to 8 points. Reddick is expected to best Hamlin at Sonoma, but the latter keeps hanging on. The 2026 In-Season Challenge also begins — a 32-driver bracket tournament where the driver who finishes higher in a head-to-head battle advances.

As always, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi answer our most pressing questions and make predictions about the upcoming race.

The Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway is Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT, PRN and HBO Max.

Race winner odds for the Toyota/ Save Mart 350

In your San Diego takeaways article, you reported Shane van Gisbergen said, “I’m filthy” when asked whether he was upset about his involvement in a collision (for which Austin Hill took the blame) that took him out of the race. How motivated do you think he’ll be this week?

Jeff: First of all, I had no idea that in Kiwi and Aussie slang, “filthy” meant “incredibly pissed.” Obviously, I was enlightened when SVG used it, so I appreciate the education. Anyway, he’ll be motivated as always to win on a road course and should once again be the massive favorite, but San Diego showed us why just because you’re the fastest driver or have the fastest car doesn’t always mean you’ll win. SVG can typically outrun bad luck, but not always.

Jordan: There is no lack of motivation for SVG, who badly needs to rebound in a big way if he’s going to have any chance of salvaging his hopes of making the Chase. He needs a monster points haul on Sunday because anything less than that and he’s unlikely to qualify, as he’s just not (yet) consistently strong enough to finish well on ovals. So, with this being the last road-course race of the season, Sonoma is the last opportunity SVG will have to earn maximum points.

The 2026 In-Season Challenge begins this weekend. How does its commencement on a difficult road course change how a driver approaches the race and the risk-reward ratio?

Jeff: Drivers are aware of who they’re matched up against, but I wouldn’t expect any fireworks on the track unless it’s the final lap or two. I could see someone in a battle for 18th place deciding to ship their In-Season Challenge competitor to advance to Round 2. Other than that, drivers have to run their race and let the rest take care of itself.

Jordan: Poor Ryan Preece. Imagine looking at the bracket and realizing you’re matched up against SVG on a road course. Yeah, good luck with that. Thanks for playing; please pick up your consolation gift in the back on your way out.

Looking at the head-to-head matchups, which upset(s) are you calling and why?

Jeff: My biggest first-round upsets are No. 24 Zane Smith over No. 9 Carson Hocevar, No. 23 Ross Chastain over No. 10 Christopher Bell, No. 21 AJ Allmendinger over No. 12 Chase Briscoe and No. 20 Michael McDowell over No. 13 Bubba Wallace. Most of those are upsets are in seeding only; I’m guessing the odds in some books would agree with many of those picks. It would be different if this were starting next week at Chicagoland, but a road course is a different skill set.

Jordan: My Round 1 upsets are all the same, except for Allmendinger versus Briscoe. I picked Briscoe because he’s really strong on road courses, whereas Allmendinger, as great as he is on road courses, tends to be somewhat inconsistent. Then, looking at the bracket overall, Zane Smith is someone who is very capable of going on a deep run. He’s a prototypical bracket-buster.

Young drivers, such as Carson Hocevar, have had success this season, but how steep is the learning curve for a rookie trying to master Sonoma and what’s most challenging?

Jeff: Hocevar said he enjoyed the street course last week because he had to keep it between the walls. On natural road courses like Sonoma, he has struggled to be as competitive. There’s a big difference between drivers who grew up road racing (SVG, Connor Zilisch) and guys who have had to learn it. Some absolutely can, but Hocevar isn’t there yet. It’s just such a precision-focused way of racing, and Hocevar loves to improvise.

Jordan: Drivers nowadays possess a more diverse skill set than their predecessors, with many spending their formative years in road course-specific series. Still, there are some who lack that background, and they find themselves at a disadvantage on a track like Sonoma. Another facet of these races is that they require a great deal of patience, something not a lot of young drivers have. These factors combined are why it is often veterans who find themselves in the mix for the win as opposed to a rookie — though there are some notable exceptions.

Tyler Reddick has only an 8-point lead over Denny Hamlin in the overall Cup Series points standings after the Anduril 250. How impressed were you with Hamlin’s top-15 finish last week? Who do you think will come out on top of the final standings and who misses the Chase?

Jeff: Hamlin getting a top-15 on a road course is exactly what he should do, but he was still going to lose a ton of points to Reddick until the No. 45 car slowed with a flat tire at the end of the San Diego race (Reddick was set to finish second before that). This week is another place where Reddick should gain maybe 20 points on Hamlin, but he’ll have to decide whether he wants to go for stage points or “flip the stages” on strategy and go for the win. That’s always a tough dilemma for good road racers who are also in need of points.

Jordan: San Diego was a missed opportunity for Reddick to pad his lead; it’s one race that could prove to be a turning point in the battle to win the regular-season championship. And while he should have the advantage over Hamlin, as last week showed, this means nothing once the race starts. What Reddick needs is a clean, uneventful race where he scores a bunch of stage points and leaves with a top-five finish.

With several drivers having had success at Sonoma, who do you like to win outside of SVG and drivers already discussed?

Jeff: Certainly, it’s worth looking at Zilisch, Ty Gibbs and Michael McDowell. Reddick could be a threat, of course. But it’s pretty much either going to be SVG or something bad happening to SVG (or his car) that determines the outcome of this race. Your best bet is to figure out if you’re riding with SVG or the field and then go from there.

Jordan: As noted above, Chase Briscoe deserves more consideration when picking a potential winner outside of SVG. Last year, Briscoe qualified second and finished second in this race, and there is no reason to think he can’t replicate this on Sunday.