Good morning from Chicago,
The Padres passed the midpoint of the season this weekend.
They are 43-39, a half-game out of the final National League wild-card position.
“We’re in a great spot, right?” Manny Machado said yesterday afternoon. “… Still second half of the season coming up, and we’re playing some good baseball.”
There is justification for Machado believing that.
The Padres just finished a winning homestand and have won 11 of their past 20 games. Doing that the rest of the way will get them to 87 wins, probably enough to earn a wild-card spot.
They have confidence bolstered by their history of recent seasons in which they finished strong. There are signs that the offense might follow that track this year.
The Padres began performing better in various ways around this time — or a little later — in 2024 and ‘25.
But the recollection of a recent season that might provide a more accurate forecast.
That season was 2021.
The Padres were 49-33 and 6½ games up in the wild-card race at this point that year.
They finished 79-83 and 11 games out of a playoff spot.
Their collapse was largely due to their starting rotation falling apart.
It was a lot like what is happening now.
Now, take heart, there are differences.
Here is how the starting pitching crisis of ‘26 is different:
The guy in charge of the roster has more time to fix it. The guy in charge of the pitching is more innovative. The other guy in charge was a part of the patchwork fix the first time.
But don’t be fooled. This is not melodrama. This is a deeply concerning situation.
“It’s my biggest worry, because I lived it,” manager Craig Stammen said. “I know what that was like.”
The rest of that quote is in my game story (here) from yesterday’s 4-2 loss to the Dodgers, which describes Michael King allowing four runs in 4⅓ innings in the latest failure by a Padres starter to adequately fulfill his duties.
“I’ve been a part of a bullpen that has to eat a lot of innings,” King said. “And it’s definitely a grind down there, so it’s on me to go longer than 4⅓.”
That is the big issue.
Yes, the Padres starting pitchers are allowing too many runs and putting the offense in a hole too often. Yesterday was the 15th time in 31 games a member of the Padres rotation departed a game with the team trailing. They have departed with a game tied another eight times in that span.
But the reality is some of that is on an offense that was largely comatose during that span.
Here is the real problem:
(All of the numbers in the above chart include the seven times the Padres have used an opener, meaning the opener was the official “starter.” But in five of those games, the starting pitcher who followed the opener failed to go five innings. So the numbers wouldn’t get much better if we factored in those bulk relievers as starters.)
The scary part is what this will inevitably do to the bullpen if it goes on much longer.
Stammen has talked in the past about how the bullpen survived being asked to cover the second-most innings in MLB in ‘21 but simply was not at its best at the end.
The Padres did not use openers that season. They did throw 14 bullpen games, including 10 after July 31. Jake Arrieta was signed in August, and Vince Velasquez was signed in September. They made four starts apiece that essentially became bullpen games.
That Padres bullpen was not as top heavy but was every bit as deep as this version.
And its strength was not impermeable.
Padres relievers had a collective 2.88 ERA in the first 118 games of the 2021 season and a 5.39 ERA in the final 44 games.
Stammen, who appeared in a half-dozen of those post-July bullpen games (not counting starts by Arrieta and Velasquez) in ‘21, is the guy making the final decision on how this all looks in 2026.
But the man pulling the levers and assessing the readiness and aptitude of the pitchers deployed is pitching coach Ruben Niebla. He is far more forward thinking and used to improvisation than Larry Rothschild, the pitching coach who became a scapegoat in ‘21 but was also pretty old school.
Additionally, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has a longer runway to execute deals to subsidize his rotation this year than he did in ‘21. His track record says he will in the next five weeks leading up to the trade deadline do all that is in his power to make this right.
But none of those three men are throwing any pitches.
The worrisome thing about King struggling again is that he and Walker Buehler have been the Padres’ only dependable starters.
And truth is, King has only been semi-dependable. He has been their best starter at times, going seven scoreless on Monday against the Braves same as he had May 18 against the Dodgers. But Sunday was the second time in eight games he went 4⅓ innings and allowed at least three runs and the third time in eight starts he didn’t complete five innings.
Griffin Canning will start today against the Cubs after allowing five runs in five innings while working as a bulk reliever the past two games and posting a 7.17 ERA in eight starts before that.
That JP Sears provides a glimmer of hope on Tuesday speaks as much to the lack of confidence that can be had in Canning and Randy Vásquez as it does to Sears having allowed just two runs in 5⅔ innings in his season debut on Wednesday against the Braves.
Buehler will make his first start of July on Wednesday after posting a 1.71 ERA in five June starts. Given the situation, one of the measures the Padres might need to take going forward is allowing Buehler to go deeper in games no matter the score if he is pitching well in the sixth inning.
It does appear Germán Márquez is on his way back soon to be used in some capacity, and Jhony Brito will be given a shot at some point.
Hey, Stammen said he is open to suggestions.
He did indicate frustration with King having walked four batters and hit Andy Pages twice Sunday. That is probably a building sentiment, as Padres starters have a 9.4% walk rate this season, seventh highest in MLB.
“Yeah, they gotta pitch better, and they gotta throw strikes,” Stammen said. “That’s number one is you make the other team put the ball in play and play the percentages. That’s number one. Number two is we just got to get a little bit better overall being able to manage getting through the game. And then I think the other part is we can also try to be a little creative with it too — with the openers and all that stuff is still on the table. Bullpen games and things like that. Everything’s on the table to try to make it better. You think of it, we’ll probably try it.”
Might’ve had it
It appeared King could have avoided a costly walk in his three-run fifth inning.
Freddie Freeman did a magnificent job to turn an 0-2 count into a nine-pitch walk with the bases loaded, but King’s changeup that was called ball four appeared to nick the lower left corner of the strike zone.
Freddie draws a bases-loaded nine-pitch walk for the lead. No challenge. pic.twitter.com/9KCD0IrNnY
— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) June 28, 2026
The problem was that even though the pitch was probably a strike it was nowhere near where King was aiming and where catcher Rodolfo Durán had set up.
King, who had won his first challenge of the season earlier in the game, getting a ball call overturned against Kyle Tucker, took the blame for not challenging the ball call that ended the Freeman walk.
“I’m mad at myself,” King said. “Durán and I talked about it after. … We’re set up away, missed in. It’s hard for a catcher to realize. From my vantage point, I feel like I can see it better, and it went through my head to challenge it. But I wasn’t fully committed to it like I was the sweeper to Tucker. And then I thought about it well later — to be like 3-2 bases loaded, even if I’m wrong, the team is probably not mad at me for challenging that one. So, yeah, that’s gonna eat at me for a little bit.”
Durán acknowledged the difficulty of seeing the pitch location clearly after having to move his glove across the plate. But he knew the situation called for a challenge on such a close call.
“That’s on me,” Durán said. “I need to do a better job with it. I thought it was lower, but it wasn’t. I lost a little bit of the vision. But I need to do a better job at it. … That’s a big spot to do it. I need to trust my eye and do a better job.”
While Padres batters have challenged the second-fewest calls and exercised the second-fewest challenges on calls that Statcast considered “reasonable challenge opportunities,” Padres catchers have been relatively good at the calls they choose to challenge and not challenge.
They rank in the top half of the league in reasonable challenge opportunities exercised, are 16th in number of challenges and rank sixth with a 63% success rate on their challenges.
Merrill badness
The curious case of Jackson Merrill ranks among the most confounding and potentially constricting issues for the Padres.
Merrill returned to San Diego last week having seemingly busted out of a seasonlong funk. He was striking out less and appeared far more certain at the plate. He really did seem like at least a semblance of his old self.
But after hitting .300 with an .834 OPS and striking out nine times in his previous 10 games, Merrill hit .167 (4-for-24) with a double and 10 strikeouts during the six-game homestand.
About Machado
He has a long way to go to salvage this season, but Machado has re-established himself as the Padres’ most dangerous hitter.
He hit a home run, which tied the game 1-1 in the fourth inning, and doubled yesterday to give him 13 extra-base hits among his 17 hits since June 9. He has four games with multiple extra-base hits in that span.
While his .188 batting average remains 153rd out of 153 qualifying batters, his 15 home runs lead the Padres and are on par with where has been at this point in the majority of the previous 12 seasons he has played at least 80 games.
Yuki gets ahead
Yuki Matsui was talking the other day about the big improvement for him this season being that he is throwing first-pitch strikes at a much higher rate.
“No specific pitches or the shapes that’s drastically better or anything,” he said Friday through interpreter Ike Ogata. “It’s more of the counts that I can get ahead in. … I’m gonna continue to work on staying ahead in counts and keep executing pitches.”
Matsui pitched against Sunday and was ahead 0-1 to all six batters he faced.
He relieved King with runners at the corners and got the final two outs of the fifth inning and then worked a scoreless sixth, striking out Shohei Ohtani for his final out.
Check out the end of this video of all of Matsui’s outs yesterday. One of the most delightful things at Padres games is Matsui’s enthusiasm. Usually at the end of an inning, Niebla has time to mark down on a card some notes from the final at-bat before he greets the pitcher coming off the field. Not so with Matsui, who has already reached the dugout before Niebla can jot down anything.
🔒 #松井裕樹 のナイスリリーフ！
5回のピンチに登板して追加点を許さず
6回も回跨ぎで続投して無失点🔥#大谷翔平 からは三振を奪いました！
👉防御率は1.53となっています！#日本人選手情報 pic.twitter.com/4trXnaSjH4
— MLB Japan (@MLBJapan) June 29, 2026
Matsui has allowed one run and stranded five of the six runners he has inherited in his past 9⅔ innings (seven games).
His first-pitch strike percentage this season is 71%, up from 57% last season and 59% in 2024. His 1.53 ERA is less than half what he finished with in either of his first two MLB seasons.
By the way, here is a fun story from Annie Heilbrunn about Yuki’s interpreter and one of his other roles with the Padres.
Tidbits
Even for those who have been around San Diego a long time, the scene at Petco Park was stunning this weekend as Dodgers fans all but took over Petco Park. Jeff Sanders wrote a story about it (here) after speaking toPadres players, who noticed and seemed to understand.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ended up getting a single later in the game, but he at first extended his on-base streak to 21 games in a painful way when he was hit on the left hand by a 95 mph fastball in the fifth inning. Tatis finished the game 1-for-4. He is batting .318/.365/.477 during his streak, which is the second-longest active on-base streak in the major leagues.
Tatis’ single was ripped on the ground through the right side of the infield at 112 mph. It was the 57th ball he has put in play this season with an exit velocity of at least 105 mph. That is third most in the major leagues. Of those, 20 have come in the past 21 games.
Wandy Peralta worked the eighth and ninth innings yesterday to set a new career-high scoreless innings streak. He has not allowed a run in his past 16⅓ innings. The streak spans 13 games dating to June 1. The 34-year-old left-hander has a 1.69 ERA through 36 appearances (42⅔ innings) this season.
Samad Taylor struck out four times yesterday, twice more than in any of his previous 40 career starts. He was hitless for a third consecutive game and did not reach base for just the second time in his 18 starts this season.
Sung-Mun Song has reached base in seven of his past 14 plate appearances. He was 0-for-2 with two walks yesterday.
Xander Bogaerts was 2-for-4 yesterday and is 9-for-32 (.281) and is reaching base at a .439 clip over his past 10 games. Bogaerts’ 19 multi-hit games are second most on the team behind Tatis’ 23.
All right, that’s it for me.
Talk to you tomorrow.