Good morning,
There was no silver lining.
The Padres began one of the most important series of their season with a dud.
You can read in my game story (here) about their 8-0 loss to the Diamondbacks last night.
Some of the quotes in that story leave no room for interpretation. It was bad.
Here is a quote from manager Craig Stammen that was not in the game story and that sums up the nothingness of the night for the Padres:
“Just not much action offensively,” he said. “The pitcher handled us well tonight. We didn’t have much fight for him. And then, we got down early with Walker (Buehler) giving up the big four-spot in the third inning. So just a tough day all around. Not good starting pitching, not very good hitting. Good bullpen. Alek Jacob and Ron Marinaccio pitched great for us tonight, helped save our pen for tomorrow.”
OK, so there was a silver lining. Kind of a sad little smidge of silver lining but perhaps not totally unimportant given that the Padres do have six games remaining before the All-Star break and every loss makes the next game exponentially more important.
As longtime readers know, this newsletter is a place for context and perspective. Every effort is made to be reserved and refrain from absolutes, especially in July.
But this season is over if last night’s effort is all the Padres can muster.
As appalling as it was, it was one game.
However, it came five days after the Padres lost by 20 runs and four days after they surrendered a six-run lead and lost by five. It was the MLB-leading 10th time they have been shut out this season and the second time in three days.
In a crowded field of contenders, last night may have been the Padres’ worst loss of the season.
The tiebreaker could be how crucial this week is.
The Padres came home after winning the final game (and only the final game) of a seven-game road trip talking about how they had been doing good things. They said they knew their fortunes would turn if they kept playing how they had for most of their weekend in Los Angeles.
They also knew the importance of the four-game series against the Diamondbacks. The All-Star break begins after Sunday’s games. The Aug. 3 trade deadline is approaching, and what happens before that will determine whether the Padres buy and try to become better for 2026 or sell and try to become better for the future.
Manny Machado was frustrated with questions from the start last night. So by the time we got to discussing the importance of this next week or so and what it might mean for the trade deadline, he wasn’t having it.
“We can’t control that,” Machado said. “We’ve got to win ballgames. It doesn’t matter. We’ve just got to win ballgames with the guys that we have in here. Doesn’t matter who the hell we got or who we don’t have. It’s gonna take us in here.”
It’s going to take more than what they had to offer last night.
A duck is a duck
Machado took exception to the contention there were more uncompetitive at-bats last night than the Padres usually have.
“Have you ever stepped in a batter’s box to know what an uncompetitive at-bat is?” he said. “We’re competing our ass off every single day. We got beat.”
We will pause there. First off, Machado’s combination of cool, calm, talent and baseball savvy makes him one of the best to ever put on a uniform.
He knows I believe that. He also knows, based on numerous conversations over the past eight years, that I respect what major league hitters do as one of the most difficult vocations on earth and that I am supremely aware I could never do it.
But you don’t have to have be a Michelin-starred chef to know when your steak is overcooked.
No one would assert the Padres had only poor at-bats last night. Or that every “bad” at-bat was uncompetitive.
They had eight singles. Among the outs they made at the end of a quality at-bat was Ty France popping out on the ninth pitch he saw in the second inning. He might have missed one hittable pitch. That was a solid AB.
But watching a fastball up in the zone, then wisely laying off a sinker on the outer third before rolling over on a sinker in the heart of the zone? Grounding out on a pitch practically at eye level? Fouling off a sinker in the heart of the zone, swinging through a sweeper above the zone and then having to swing at a fastball on the outer edge and grounding into a force out? A 41% chase rate as a team? One plate appearance with a runner in scoring position?
A good at-bat doesn’t always end in a base hit, and an out is not always the result of a bad at-bat.
Of course there were quality at-bats last night.
“Just didn’t string enough together,” Jake Cronenworth said. “There’s a few good ones here and there, but never enough in the same inning.”
This too
Another thing we should respect is that virtually every pitcher good enough to start in the major leagues is good enough to pitch like an ace on occasion.
Brandon Pfaadt has made 88 big-league starts. He was clutch in the 2023 postseason. The Diamondbacks signed him to a five-year, $45 million contract last year, when he was 26 years old.
He has been an excellent pitcher for stretches.
None of those stretches has come this season. He was booted from the starting rotation and spent time in Triple-A. He entered last night’s game with a 5.40 ERA over 43⅓ innings. He had allowed at least one run in 12 of his 14 appearances and had never gone more than three innings in a game without allowing a run.
Last night, in his fifth start of the season, he threw five scoreless innings.
Machado was impressed.
“Who was that guy on the mound today?” he asked, rhetorically. “You don’t think he’s been competing? You don’t think he’s felt pretty bad all year, going to Triple-A, coming back up. … He has a contract, right? He’s a pretty big dude. He did a lot for that organization in the postseason run. He did a lot to get paid. The m—f—r is pretty good. He had good stuff today.”
Again, this is not about one game.
The Padres have faced their share of the league’s top pitchers. An argument could be made, depending on the metric used, they have faced as many elite arms as any team.
But they also were shut out by the Cardinals’ Dustin May, who has a 5.06 ERA in his other 16 starts.
Last night was the 29th time since May 6 that the Padres have faced a starting pitcher who entered the game against them with an ERA over 4.00. (In most cases, significantly above 4.00). Those pitchers have a collective 3.65 ERA and have thrown a total of 13 quality starts against the Padres.
Meanwhile …
Buehler had a second consecutive poor start.
After giving up nine runs in four innings last Wednesday at windswept Wrigley Field, he allowed the Diamondbacks seven runs in five innings.
“Can’t blame the weather conditions like we could in Chicago,” Stammen said. “He’s just leaving balls over the plate, and guys are doing damage on it. There were a few seeing-eye singles tonight, a couple missed plays in the first inning, but the big hit was the three-run home run that (Max) Kepler hit. He just avoided that in all the previous starts in the month of June.”
Buehler had a 1.71 ERA in five starts (26⅓ innings) in June.
Buehler was just missing his locations early in last night’s game. And he threw away a would-be out that became a run in the first inning when he sailed a throw to second base. The Diamondbacks had a few fantastic at-bats against him, doing what they needed to find holes in the infield alignment. He put Kepler’s 417-foot home run on a tee with a belt-high fastball on the inner third.
“Not a ton,” Buehler said when asked what was different between now and June. “… I felt good. I felt like my stuff was fine. I just made some bad pitches in bad spots and didn’t get ahead enough. I think at this point in my career, the little details matter a lot more than maybe they did back in the day.
“You go on like a good little run, and then give up 16 in two games. It’s difficult, especially when I think at this stage of my career I’m supposed to be a guy that can kind of help us get some momentum — or at least give ourselves a chance. And to give up those kinds of numbers early in games, not a whole lot you can do from there.”
Tidbits
Right-hander Jhony Brito joined the Padres yesterday and will be officially recalled from Triple-A today. He is expected to follow starter Germán Márquez in tonight’s game. You can read in Jeff Sanders’ notebook (here) about Brito’s return, Jeremiah Estrada’s rehab progress and Xander Bogaerts’ day off.
Jacob’s reward for his three innings is almost certainly another trip back to El Paso to make room for Brito on the active roster.
Jackson Merrill continued a season of feast or famine by going 2-for-4 last night. It was his 19th multi-hit game, which ranks third on the Padres. He also has gone hitless in 39 games and is batting .217 on the season.
Cronenworth was 2-for-4 and is batting .308 (8-for-26) since returning from the concussion injured list.
Gavin Sheets extended his season-best hitting streak to seven games. He has one hit in each of the seven games.
All right, that’s it for me.
Talk to you tomorrow.