Good morning from Kansas City, Mo.,

This sure seemed like the loss that said it all.

Last night was the kind of defeat that punches a team in the gut and then leans in and whispers, “This ain’t your year, boys.”

The Padres came back from two deficits, including one when down to their final out in the top of the ninth inning. Their closer struck out three batters with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth to keep the game tied. They scored three runs in the 10th inning.

They lost.

You can read about it all in my game story (here) from last night’s 7-6 loss to the Royals.

The Padres’ clubhouse was more hushed than it had been after any game in 2026. And there have been some bad losses.

“Where we are in the season,” Jake Cronenworth said of the somber mood. “And this 10-game road trip to start the second half, it’s obviously not how we wanted to start.”

But what else could they do but talk about looking forward?

“We gotta flush this as fast as possible,” Cronenworth said.

They play again this afternoon. And every loss at this point makes the next game more important.

Today’s game falls short of the “must-win” threshold. But, come on, the Padres have to win this series against a team that entered yesterday tied for the worst record in the major leagues.

Otherwise, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller might not need to stay on this road trip. He could just head home Sunday and get the sale ready.

My game story focused on how the process is no longer important. Results are what the Padres need.

However, Preller is assessing whether the Padres have the ability to make a playoff push.

So it was not insignificant when considering how the loss came about that an injury-depleted, highly relied-upon bullpen lost two leads. (One of those was thanks to an error.)

And it should also be noted that two players the Padres need to be really good the rest of the season began the second half by going hitless in nine at-bats. Jackson Merrill was 0-for-5 and twice made outs with runners in scoring position. Manny Machado was 0-for-4 with a walk.

There is no trade deadline voodoo by Preller that could make a difference if Machado and Merrill are not going to step up.

And one of the worst parts of last night’s result is what it meant did not happen.

The Padres did not gain a game in the National League wild-card race.

The Marlins lost in extra innings in a game completed just before the Padres’ lead leaked away. They could have gotten to within 2½ games of the No.6 seed.

Instead, the Padres stayed the same number of games back and lost ground.

The Cardinals moved into a tie with the Marlins for the final wild-card spot, and the Nationals leapfrogged the Padres in the standings. That means the Padres now have to get past five teams if they are going to make the playoffs.

What they had

The Padres’ choices to pitch in the 10th inning were Jhony Brito, Kyle Hart, Ron Marinaccio, Yuki Matsui or Matt Waldron.

Bradgley Rodriguez, Adrian Morejón and Mason Miller had already pitched.

Yes, Miller threw just 16 pitches in the ninth. But those were some high-stress pitches, and his two slowest fastballs among the final six he threw were 101.6 mph and 101.9 mph. He hit 103 twice.

Matsui was a closer in Japan and is having the best of his three MLB seasons. But the Padres went with the other remaining left-hander in Hart.

“It was kind of a toss-up with a lot of the guys down there,” Stammen said. “We feel good about all of them. We chose Kyle. We felt like the matchups were in his favor, left-on-left on a few of them. I don’t want to say we were right, because they got hits. But they didn’t hit the ball hard off him. It was just a lot of weak contact that found holes. That’s how it goes sometimes.”

There were a couple broken-bat singles, a bunt single and a seeing-eye single that won it. None was harder than 73 mph off the bat.

The choice of a pitcher is always viewed as the wrong one when it doesn’t work out. But this is where it is prudent to understand the Padres are the ones with the data — knowing past matchups, how certain pitches play against swing types of opposing hitters, etc.

Musgrove, Pivetta update

Starters Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta both threw an “up-down” at the Padres complex in Peoria, Ariz., yesterday. That is, they threw 15-20 pitches before sitting down for a time and then threw 15-20 more to simulate pitching two innings.

“They came out of it healthy and rock and rolling, so they’re taking the next steps,” Stammen said. “… Very important step. I think the next step is probably getting closer to facing live hitters.”

That could happen next week, which would continue to make it at least possible they are back in August.

Musgrove has not pitched since his October 2024 Tommy John surgery. The ligament repair is intact, but he has experienced issues due to a lack of cartilage in his elbow.

Pivetta departed during his fourth start of the season with what the Padres have termed a flexor strain in his elbow.

Pivetta is facing a deadline of sorts on Aug. 22. If he is not back by that date, which is 130 days from when he went on the injured list, it would trigger a clause in his contract that allows the Padres to void the final two years ($32 million) of his deal.

Swap talk

Ty France’s game-tying home run in the ninth inning was his 12th homer of the season. He is averaging a home run every 17.42 at-bats, 39th in the major leagues among those with at least 200 at-bats. He is batting .318 (21-for-66) with a 1.044 OPS over his past 20 games and is batting .268 with a .830 OPS in 233 plate appearances on the season.

Miguel Andujar doubled three times for the second time in four games and is batting .268 with a .744 OPS in 244 plate appearances this season. With 20 doubles, two triples and five home runs, he is averaging an extra-base every 8.56 at-bats.

What all that means is those two players might be emerging as attractive trade options.

What it means before then is that there is an argument Andujar and France should be batting second and third instead of Merrill and Bogaerts.

Stammen has said he is batting Bogaerts third because he believes in him and the Padres need him to hit. He was 1-for-4 with a sacrifice fly last night and is batting .224 with a .645 OPS.

Merrill is batting .216 with a .619 OPS.

Merrill’s OPS is 144th out of 150 qualifying players. Bogaerts’ ranks 134th.

Fermin returns

Freddy Fermin has not wanted to leave a single game, let alone take time off.

That doesn’t mean he is not grateful the Padres have shown caution with him, as he has taken at least 10 foul tips off his mask and another ball off the side of his head this season.

“I understand what they’re doing,” Fermin said yesterday afternoon, just before being activated off the injured list. “I like to play baseball. I get emotional sometimes. But I thank the Padres for taking care of me, and hopefully I don’t get more foul balls and get hit like that. … It’s a lot.”

Fermin got a couple new masks yesterday from representatives of the equipment manufacturer, Force3, who also fitted his catching helmet with extra padding.

Fermin spent a week on the concussion IL in June. He was placed on the regular 10-day IL on July 3 with a head bruise.

“Even though he didn’t get diagnosed with a concussion, we wanted 10 more days of him not getting hit in the head,” Stammen said of the decision to put him on the IL this month. “… So if he gets another one, which is somewhat inevitable, hopefully it doesn’t knock him out or give him another concussion.”

Luis Campusano started behind the plate yesterday against the Royals, and Stammen has indicated Campusano will be the primary catcher as long as he continues to hit.

Campusano went 0-for-2 with a walk last night and is batting .292 with a .949 OPS in 85 plate appearances (27 games). Fermin is batting .152 with a .520 OPS in 162 plate appearances (59 games).

Rodolfo Durán, who was optioned to Triple-A yesterday, was hitting .146 with a .527 OPS in 91 plate appearances (36 games).

If you missed …

Maybe you took the All-Star break off from reading about the Padres.

So here are some stories you may have missed:

I wrote Thursday (here) about the various scenarios the Padres are running as they prepare for the trade deadline.

Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred offered assurance on Tuesday that the Padres’ transfer of ownership will go through. I wrote about that (here).

Jeff Sanders wrote (here) about the Padres’ 2027 schedule, which will include three games in Las Vegas — if the season is played.

Sanders did a story (here) re-ranking the Padres’ top-10 prospects following last weekend’s draft.

You can read more about the journey Sung-Mun Song took to the big leagues in Annie Heilbrunn’s Q&A with the infielder (here).

Tidbits

The double hit by Carter Jensen in last night’s ninth inning was the first extra-base hit in 255 plate appearances against Miller. It ended Miller’s streak of not allowing an extra-base hit at 58 games, an MLB Expansion Era (1961) record.
Royals starter Seth Lugo, who entered the game with a 4.56 ERA, allowed two runs (one earned) in six innings. It was the MLB-high 45th quality start against the Padres this season. It was Lugo’s 11th quality start in ‘26.
Since May 6, a pitcher has entered a start against the Padres with an ERA of 4.50 or higher (sometimes much higher) in 25 games. Those pitchers have a 3.81 ERA against the Padres in that span.
Andujar’s 20 doubles lead the team and are his most since he hit 47 in his rookie season in 2018.
Gavin Sheets went 0-for-4, ending his on-base streak at 13 games.
The Padres are 4-2 in extra-inning games and 13-13 in one-run games.
Last night was the Padres’ fifth consecutive game decided by no more than two runs. They are 2-3 in those games.

All right, that’s it for me. Early game today (1:10 p.m. PT).

Talk to you then.