The Padres’ odds of turning this season around are getting longer by the day.
After dropping the first two games in Kansas City, their postseason odds at Fangraphs has dropped from 12% to 8% heading into Sunday’s series finale.
First pitch is a 11:10 a.m. on Padres.TV.
Three regulars are hitless to start the unofficial second half: Manny Machado (0-for-7, 2 BBs), Jackson Merrill (0-for-9) and Gavin Sheets (0-for-8).
Facing a lefty, Sheets is out of the lineup on Sunday as is second baseman Jake Cronenworth.
Sunday at The K. pic.twitter.com/C0QCoqm0Xt
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 19, 2026
Meantime, the Padres will stick with Merrill (.612 OPS) in the two-hole and give switch-hitter Luis Rengifo (.529 OPS) his first start as a Padres.
Rengifo will bat seventh, between designated hitter Miguel Andujar (.732 OPS) and left fielder Jase Bowen (.302 OPS).
The Padres (48-50) are two games under .500, 3½ games out of a wild-card spot and have five teams to overtake to get back into playoff position.
Here is how the Royals (40-59), who had lost five in a row before winning the first two games of this series, will line up as they look for a sweep:
Sunday starters. pic.twitter.com/Vpn3U9eD6q
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) July 19, 2026
Sunday’s pitching matchup
Padres RHP Germán Márquez (4-2, 5.18 ERA)
He has a 3.75 ERA in three appearances (12 IP) since returning from forearm nerve inflammation, the last two being starts (9 IP, 3 ER). Marquez has a 2.75 ERA in four appearances on the road and a 7.36 ERA in five starts at Petco Park. He has a 6.19 ERA in three starts against the Royals, the last in 2025 (4 IP, 6 ER).
Here is how Marquez has fared against current Royals:
Royals LHP Noah Cameron (5-7, 4.89 ERA)
The second-year starter’s ERA is nearly two runs higher than last year (2.99), when he finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Cameron has a 7.20 ERA over his last six starts. He lost his start last year against the Padres in Kansas City (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER).
Here is how Cameron has fared against current Padres:
