California has overwhelmingly approved Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to gerrymander congressional seats in favor of Democrats for the next several election cycles. His most powerful allies in Silicon Valley are tempering their zeal.
Though Proposition 50 does little to local political boundaries, a whopping 71% of Santa Clara County voters went in favor of the redistricting plan according to the latest polling results on Wednesday at noon. Across the state, early returns showed the measure leading with almost 65% of the vote.
The measure puts five GOP lawmaker seats in danger of flipping blue across California, while also fortifying five Democratic seats from turning red. But Democrats still have to actually win those seats. The private law firm of Assistant U.S. Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon has already filed a lawsuit challenging Proposition 50 as unconstitutional.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is already working to cast Proposition 50 as illegitimate. On Tuesday morning, he threatened a “criminal” review of California’s mail ballot system — raising concerns that Republicans may stall the seating of new Democrats elected as a result of the redrawn map. Republicans have already delayed the seating of Democratic Congresswoman-elect Adelita Grijalva from Arizona for 41 days.
“This is on brand for Donald Trump so we would expect him to do this much more — and the ‘much more’ is what we should be concerned about,” Congressman Sam Liccardo told San José Spotlight. “We will be all the more vigilant in our collective effort to protect the electoral process in 2026 and 2028.”
Liccardo aspires to see enough Democrats in the House — preventing further seating delays — by the time any new congressional byproducts of Proposition 50 need to be sworn in.
“I think like many in our country right now, I feel a swirl of emotions. I’m proud that California stood up together — but I’m mindful that we’re still in the middle of an authoritarian takeover of our democracy and we’ve got many battles ahead,” Liccardo said.
Mindy Romero, a political sociologist and founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy, said there will be damage regardless of who wins Proposition 50’s most critically redrawn seats.
“Yesterday (Trump) said the election was illegitimate. And there’s concern the legal challenges alone could give the Trump administration the excuse to not seat some Democratic electeds to Congress,” Romero told San José Spotlight. “Quite likely this is a dry run for claims that will be made in 2026. We don’t know what’s going to happen next year but it’s clear, no matter where you fall on the political spectrum, that Trump is going to challenge the legitimacy of Democratic states and their elections.”
Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren also balanced her glee with uncertainty around the 2026 midterm outcomes.
“There are five seats — but they’re not won yet so we need to have candidates and we need to have campaigns,” Lofgren told San José Spotlight. “Some of the seats are easier to win than others, but a couple of them are going to be very competitive and we need to work hard to make sure that they end up in Democratic hands.”
California started a national movement in 2008 when voters took redistricting out of the hands of state lawmakers and into the hands of an independent, citizen-led redistricting commission. But Proposition 50 suspends that commission until the next census in 2030. Proposition 50 proponents have promised it’s only temporary.
“What will really happen to the California Citizens Redistricting Commission?” Dave Johnson, chair of the Santa Clara County Republican Party, told San José Spotlight. “We already voted for this 12 or 13 years ago….. Now it’s ‘on hold.’ If you believe that, I have a bridge I’d like to sell you.”
Experts question whether California may set redistricting on a new course nationwide.
“You could say, after we get past the midterms, people get really sick of gerrymandering — we went down the dark side but now actually want to promote independent redistricting further across the country,” Romero told San José Spotlight. “It could be a catalyst that ends up seeing more support for independent redistricting.”
The other possibility:
“We have started an all out gerrymandering war that isn’t just going to be about the midterms,” Romero said. “In California — we’re also talking about the 2028 presidential cycle. Then there’s midterms after that. At the end of the day, an exception to the rules just opens the door to create another exception.”
Mid-decade redistricting isn’t unprecedented, but it is rare, Romero said.
“Are we going to see more of that?” she said. “Are we going to see more gerrymandering that extends even beyond the battle for control of Congress? Once you start to erode a democratic norm, it’s very hard to bring it back.”
Liccardo said he’s not as worried about a slippery slope.
“If this were done without the will of the voters, I would be more concerned,” he said.
Contact Brandon Pho at [email protected] or @brandonphooo on X.