Are the San Jose Sharks going to be in salary cap hell in a couple years?
It’ll be a good thing if they are.
That means upcoming extension candidates like Michael Misa, Igor Chernyshov, Sam Dickinson, and Yaroslav Askarov have all emerged as stars.
But the Sharks’ future cap has been a concern for fans since Mike Grier acquired Darnell Nurse, Jacob Trouba, Mason Marchment, and Michael Kesselring this off-season.
In Nurse, Trouba, and Marchment, the Sharks have acquired over $100 million in contracts for three 30-something veterans.
“We’ve done our work on the numbers,” the San Jose Sharks GM said in early July. “We made the deals we made, and we’re happy with it.”
So what will the Sharks’ cap in 2028-29 look like?
In three seasons, Logan Couture’s contract will be done. Also, Dmitry Orlov, Tyler Toffoli, and Barclay Goodrow are among the significant cap hits that should be off the books.
That’s about $24 million freed up on what’s projected to rise to a $123 million salary cap in 2028-29.
But also by this time, Misa, Chernyshov, and Dickinson’s extensions will kick in, and the Sharks will have a better idea of what they have in Askarov.
Here’s what I predict up front, including projections for current extension-eligible Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, and RFA Collin Graf. I’ve also included contract comps for all seven Sharks youngsters.
Forwards
FORWARDS (projected in all caps)2028-29 AAV (in millions)
MACKLIN CELEBRINI18.5
MICHAEL MISA12
WILL SMITH10
IGOR CHERNYSHOV9.5
Mason Marchment6.75
COLLIN GRAF6
Alex Wennberg6
Kiefer Sherwood5.75
Zack Ostapchuk2.35
Ivar Stenberg1.075
Forward #11?
Forward #12?
Forward #13?
TOTAL77.925
Superstar Celebrini gets a blank check, as Hart Levine of Puckpedia predicted on the San Jose Hockey Now Podcast last week.
I have Celebrini for $18.5 million AAV for five years, a discount, but still higher than current league AAV leader, Leo Carlsson’s $18 million AAV.
Will the Sharks get ahead of the curve on Smith? I say they do, inking him this off-season to a five-year, $50 million pact, instead of risking him having a breakout campaign next year, and becoming even more expensive.
I’m comparing Smith to Ivan Demidov’s eight-year, $73.2 million extension, signed in early July, before Carlsson’s offer sheet. Demidov got a $9.15 million AAV, 8.06 percent of the cap in the first year of the extension. I’m going a little higher on Smith, acknowledging the effect of Carlsson on prospective offer sheet candidates around the NHL.
That $10 million AAV is 8.8 percent of 2027-28’s $113.5 million salary cap.
If the Sharks invest in RFA Graf, I’m guessing a five-year, $30 million contract. That’s a $6 million AAV, 5.8 percent of 2026-27’s $104 million salary cap, buying out one UFA year.
Two-way winger Joel Farabee signed a six-year, $30 million contract in the summer of 2021, buying out two UFA years. That $5 million AAV was 6.06 of the cap back then.
The Sharks can also choose to go shorter term and lower AAV for Smith and Graf, too, which will give them more cap space in 2028-29. If they’re not sure about both or either, that could be wise.
I believe Michael Misa will be a top two-way second-line center sooner than later, so I have the Sharks inking him to a six-year, $72 million contract when they can.
That $12 million AAV is 9.8 percent of 2028-29’s cap.
Logan Cooley’s eight-year, $80 million agreement, signed in Oct. 2025, is the comp. That $10 million AAV was 9.62 percent of 2026-27’s cap.
Chernyshov should be a future 30-goal scorer: That’s another five-year deal, this time for $47.5 million.
That $9.5 million AAV is 7.7 percent of the 2028-29 cap.
Matthew Knies’s six-year, $46.5 million deal, signed in summer 2025, is the comp. That $7.75 million AAV was 8.1 percent of the cap.
Defensemen
DEFENSEMEN (projected in all caps)2028-29 AAV (in millions)
Darnell Nurse9.25
SAM DICKINSON8.5
Jacob Trouba8.25
Michael Kesselring4.5
Defenseman #5?
Defenseman #6?
Defenseman #7?
TOTAL30.5
Dickinson should continue to show his promise next year, but considering how difficult it is to learn to be a solid defenseman in the NHL, the Sharks may still be paying for potential on his next contract.
That could mean five years and 42.5 million for Dickinson?
That $8.5 million AAV is 6.9 percent of 2028-29’s cap, based on Simon Nemec’s just-signed five-year, $36.25 million contract. Nemec’s $7.25 million AAV is 6.97 percent of next year’s cap.
Goaltending
GOALTENDING (projected in all caps)2028-29 AAV (in millions)
YAROSLAV ASKAROV7.5
Goaltender #2?
TOTAL7.5
If the Sharks make the playoffs next year, chances are, Askarov will be a big part of it.
Assuming Askarov does that, that could net him a six-year, $45 million commitment.
That $7.5 million AAV is 6.6 percent of 2027-28’s cap, based on Lukas Dostal’s five-year, $32.5 million contract, signed last summer. Dostal’s $6.5 million AAV is 6.8 percent of last year’s cap.
Summary
FORWARDS (projected in all caps)2028-29 AAV (in millions)
MACKLIN CELEBRINI18.5
MICHAEL MISA12
WILL SMITH10
IGOR CHERNYSHOV9.5
Mason Marchment6.75
COLLIN GRAF6
Alex Wennberg6
Kiefer Sherwood5.75
Zack Ostapchuk2.35
Ivar Stenberg1.075
Forward #11?
Forward #12?
Forward #13?
TOTAL77.925
DEFENSEMEN (projected in all caps)2028-29 AAV (in millions)
Darnell Nurse9.25
SAM DICKINSON8.5
Jacob Trouba8.25
Michael Kesselring4.5
Defenseman #5?
Defenseman #6?
Defenseman #7?
TOTAL30.5
GOALTENDING (projected in all caps)2028-29 AAV (in millions)
YAROSLAV ASKAROV7.5
Goaltender #2?
TOTAL7.5
OVERALL2028-29 AAV (in millions)
115.925
That leaves roughly $7 million of cap space for seven players, three forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie. That doesn’t look good for the San Jose Sharks in 2028-29, but once again, it’s a good problem to have.
And once again, the Sharks can go shorter term and lower AAV on any of these deals for more immediate cap space, though they could pay for this frugality later.
It’s also naive to assume that Marchment, Wennberg, Sherwood, Nurse, Kesselring, and Trouba will all still be on the books for 2028-29. San Jose might move them, though it could cost them an asset on top of it. That’s not ideal, but acceptable if this is the veteran core that helps get you into the playoffs immediately.
For what it’s worth, Marchment, Wennberg, Sherwood, Trouba, and Kesselring don’t have No-Movement Clauses for 2028-29. The first four have partial No-Trade Lists, while Kesselring has no protections.
On the flipside, 2029 UFA Kesselring could also be in line for a significant raise.
Of course, it’s also naïve to assume that all of Misa, Chernyshov, Dickinson, and Askarov will all be stars. And you never know, maybe one emerges as a superstar, which will cost the San Jose Sharks even more.
Either way, the Sharks’ salary cap will be something to watch in the coming years. Fans are right to worry, but 2028-29 is a long way away, and lots can happen between now and then.