(Every roster is different, but there are traits on each one. All summer, Daniel Kelley will go roster-by-roster to identify the top fantasy football sleeper and bust on each roster and make a bold prediction for each team. This is Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions.)
Summary
Sleeper in SF backfield could yield late-round value: Kaelon Black may emerge as the top backup RB if McCaffrey misses time, offering near-free production.
Bust risks at tight end for 49ers fantasy rosters: George Kittle carries injury risk after Achilles tear; consider Jake Tonges as a late-round alternative.
Bold take: Mike Evans leads league in receiving TDs for 49ers: Evans could seize red-zone chances with a likely spread offense and aging targets elsewhere.
The 49ers had the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award last year, in Christian McCaffrey. They’ve also won it two other times in the current iteration of the award (Bryant Young in 1999 and Garrison Hearst in 2001). That’s tied with the Chargers, Bengals and Patriots for most times having a player win the award since the AP brought it back in 1998 (to be fair, the Bengals are represented twice by Joe Burrow alone).
Right now, among the top 10 in odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for Comeback Player of the Year Award in 2026 are three 49ers: George Kittle (+2000, sixth-best odds), Nick Bosa and Fred Warner (both +2500, eighth best); no other team has more than one player in the top 10 in odds.
I do not believe an electrical substation is to blame for San Francisco’s injury woes, either now or in the past. It’s been studied and it’s not a believable phenomenon. I do believe that, at least in the recent history, Kyle Shanahan’s tendency to ride his top players until their joints grind to dust is a good way to end up with injuries, and also … random things happen. That’s just a fact of life, and many of the things we see as a pattern is just the fact that in an infinite void, every eventuality can happen, and humans love to find patterns.
What is more interesting is that the 49ers got to a 12-5 record and a playoff win last year despite all those guys who are now Comeback Player of the Year candidates suffering the injuries that they now have to come back from. It tells me that if this team can ever finally have a healthy season … some exciting things can happen.
2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: San Francisco 49ers
Sleeper: Kaelon Black, RB (or your backup RB of choice)
I think Kaelon Black will be the top backup running back in San Francisco this season. Maybe you think it’s Jordan James or Isaac Guerendo. Heck, maybe it’s Sincere McCormick (it probably isn’t Sincere McCormick). The point is, we’ll see some production from a backup running back in San Francisco this year, and you can capitalize on it virtually for free.
Christian McCaffrey totaled 450 touches last year. He’s 30 now. I’m hardly the first one to point out that that’s a scary combination for a running back, and it wouldn’t surprise literally anyone if McCaffrey were to miss time. So the question is, if McCaffrey misses time, does this backfield become a one man job, or do we have a committee?
Well, in 2024, the 49ers played 13 games without McCaffrey. In those games, one player had at least 60% of the team’s backfield carries every time but once, when Jordan Mason got hurt in the second quarter and Isaac Guerendo took over. Take out that game that featured an injury of its own, and the lead ball carrier averaged 85.3% of the team’s RB carries in every McCaffrey-less game. That includes six games of at least 90% of the carries and three times at 100%. Basically, if McCaffrey goes down, one guy will get the work. And while the 49ers’ recent history of Day 2 RB picks is spotty at best, I fully expect the first crack at that work will go to Black.
Bust: George Kittle, TE
I would be happy to be wrong here. But this appears to be a lesson we still need to learn — don’t bet on guys returning too fast from leg injuries, particularly Achilles. We spent months hearing that Aaron Rodgers was demolishing the schedule, only for him to need almost a whole year and then it taking another year for him to look even decent. Kirk Cousins wasn’t great in 2024 in his return but looked better in his return last year. In the non-Achilles vein, Tony Pollard was an exciting fantasy draft pick in 2023 after his 2022 postseason injury, but he disappointed before looking better in 2024.
George Kittle not only tore his ACL last year, he did it about as late as he could have, getting hurt in the Wild Card Round. Everything that has come out since then has been positive, and Kittle is going as a starter in fantasy. I am more than happy to let someone else pay the price on him and watch as he hangs around on the injury report for the first month or so and either misses games or plays on a limited basis. Meanwhile, Jake Tonges is a very sneaky little end-of-draft pick in deeper leagues. He’ll be a producer over the first month or so.
Bold Prediction: Mike Evans Leads the League in TD Receptions
One way or another, the 49ers will have a good offense. It’s inevitable. But as I mentioned above, I’m worried about both George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey this year. That means guys like Mike Evans, Ricky Pearsall or the backups will have to step up. For yardage, the expect the ball to be spread around. But when it comes to the end zone, the 6-foot-5 Evans will be the target.
Even if he doesn’t have the yardage of a younger Evans, the old man is in line to be the 49ers’ answer to Davante Adams last year — let whoever gets the ball downfield to do that, but then when it’s close, throw it to the veteran who is especially good at that. And with Evans available at WR27 in ADP, he’s a definite bargain in fantasy drafts.