Fresno State had a plan a few years back to get power conference teams to come to the San Joaquin Valley, and it was working. In all phases. The Bulldogs landed games and also won at a high clip, getting the Red Wave to reengage at a level it hadn’t hit in more than a decade and generate the ticket revenue to make it all work.

But that plan started to unravel due to conference realignment and other changes across college football, and the Bulldogs could lose another one of those power conference home games due to factors out of their control.

Stanford, slated to open the 2028 season at Fresno State in the first game of a home and home series, is overscheduled due to changes in the Atlantic Coast Conference. It is one of three power conference games still on the Bulldogs’ future schedules — they also have Kansas in 2030 and UCLA in 2032.

“We have to work with those schools to make sure that they intend on filling those games, and it would be more lucrative to us because we get a bump from the Pac-12 if we’re able to host an autonomy conference team,” athletics director Garrett Klassy said.

But Klassy acknowledged that scheduling these days is always going to be a moving target.

The Bulldogs, obviously, want that game against Stanford. The most recent power conference opponent they have played at home is Oregon State in 2022, before the Pac-12 was decimated by conference realignment and the Bulldogs and Beavers became conference rivals.

The last time Fresno State and Stanford played a football game was in 1928.

It also could be difficult for Fresno State to find a comparable replacement for a prime spot on the schedule.

The ACC this season is phasing in a nine-game league schedule with most of its members and, because it has 17 schools, in 2027 and beyond 16 teams will play nine conference games and one will play eight.

Stanford in 2028 will play nine, and at this point it still has four non-conference games scheduled. In a 12-game regular season, that is one too many. It could play at Fresno State and move or drop a scheduled home game against FCS Portland State or San Jose State, pay a penalty to buy its way out of the game at Fresno State, or get the Bulldogs to agree to push it back to a later year and find another Week One opponent.

The fourth non-conference game for Stanford in 2028 is at Notre Dame, and ACC teams starting this season are required to play 10 power conference opponents, or the Fighting Irish.

Stanford officials declined to comment, through an athletics department spokesman.

According to the game contract, Stanford would have to pay Fresno State $1.5 million to get out of the game in 2028. The return at Stanford is scheduled to be played in 2029.

The Cardinal already has made some adjustments, this season and next. Stanford and San Jose State were scheduled to play this season, but that game was pushed back to 2031 due to the ACC going to the nine-game conference schedule. In moving the game, they added a future matchup to be played in 2036.

Stanford also cancelled a non-conference game at Texas Christian in 2027 to accommodate the addition of the ninth conference game in the ACC.

Fresno State has Kansas on its home schedule in 2030 as part of a 2 for 1 series, and it was able to add the home game against UCLA in 2032 when agreeing to move a 2024 game at the Rose Bowl to November from September.

Kansas has an opening on its 2030 schedule that likely will be filled with a home game — it has at this point a home game against Virginia and the game at Fresno State.

The only game on the Bruins’ schedule in 2032 is at Fresno State. UCLA has played road games at a number of Group of Six conference schools over the past decade including San Diego State, Hawaii, UNLV and Memphis.

But if it chooses to cancel the trip up State Route 99, it would have to pay Fresno State $500,000 if more than 12 months prior to the date of the game or $800,000 if within 12 months of the game.

Fresno State already lost a home and home series against Washington State that was scheduled before the collapse of the Pac-12. It also lost a home and home series against Brigham Young. BYU wasn’t yet in the Big 12 when that series was scheduled, but it was a marquee non-conference matchup for the Bulldogs.

And, last year, Texas Tech paid a $1 million penalty to get out of a trip to the San Joaquin Valley that was part of a 2 for 1 series and on the books for 2029.

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