On Nov. 1, 1988, as he was about to leave office, at a campaign rally in Fullerton, President Ronald Reagan quipped, “Orange County is where the good Republicans go before they die.”

But since the 2022 election, Democrats have enjoyed a 3-2 majority on the Board of Supervisors. Diane Dixon, currently an assemblywoman from Newport Beach, aims to flip the board red again. She’s running against incumbent Democrat Katrina Foley for the 5th District. It covers most of the county’s southern coastal region and part of Irvine.

“We’re working hard every day, all over the district,” Dixon told me. “I think people are pleased I performed well in the June 2 primary. Foley was supposed to win outright,” meaning a majority of the votes would have precluded the Nov. 3 runoff. Instead, Foley received 46.98% to Dixon’s 46.81%, with 6.21% going to Lucy Vellema, an educator. 

Dixon says her top issue is affordability, including building more housing, which could help her with Democratic-leaning voters in the district.

It’s going to be a close race. I should know. Foley first was elected to the board in 2021, beating former Supervisor John Moorlach in a special election for the 2nd District. I had been his press secretary when he was a state senator, from 2017 to 2020. And I helped with and contributed to his Senate re-election and supervisor campaigns, which he lost, before launching back into journalism.

After redistricting, in 2022 Foley ran in the 5th District and beat former state Senator Pat Bates, 51.3% to 48.7%. She has strong support from the Democratic Party and the public-employee unions.

My main concern is finances. Foley joined the other four supervisors in February 2025 in stripping the county’s investment portfolio from elected Treasurer-Tax Collector Shari Freidenrich and giving it to County CEO Michelle Aguirre. In June 2026, Aguirre retired and the board replaced her with interim CEO K.C. Roestenberg.

In a March op-ed, Moorlach charged the board “has pirated the Treasurer’s office and is now plundering it.” In the June 2 election, 71% of voters resoundingly reelected Freidenrich.

“The office is our independently elected treasurer-tax collector and the portfolio should be restored to her and her successors,” Dixon said. “She was elected to safeguard the public funds, and we shouldn’t get emotional about this. I highly regard Shari.”

Freidenrich’s control of the portfolio was removed when she was accused of fostering a “toxic atmosphere” in her office. She denied the accusation, and details remain confidential. Dixon said, once on the board, “I’ll look into that.”

One of the key selling points for Foley and the other two Democrats on the board is they are more plugged into the Democratic supermajorities – more than two-thirds of seats – in both the Assembly and state Senate. That means they can get more benefits for the county. 

Dixon countered that, despite being a Republican, she has worked across the aisle. “The Democrats respect me and I get things done,” she said. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed “18 of my bills the past four years, with five more pending in the Senate.” 

As of May 18, the OC Registrar of Voters’ report to Secretary of State Shirley Weber clocked the 5th District 37.8% Republican, 32.8% Democrat, 22.2% No Party Preference and the rest third parties. 

Foley and Dixon last filed campaign disclosures for the period through June 30. Foley raised $270,382 and spent $538,429 so far this year, nearly two dollars out for every dollar in. For Dixon, it was similar, $297,608 raised and $419,451 spent. 

As the primary campaign ended, Orange County Republican Chairman Will O’Neill estimated to City News Service the unions backed Foley with $900,000, while the Republican Lincoln Club gave Dixon $300,000 and the county party another $200,000. The spending for Nov. 3 is just getting started and will rise into the millions on each side. 

Dixon’s main problem will be energizing Republicans at a time when President Donald Trump’s approval rating, according to the New York Times’ Aug. 4 aggregate, is 38%, with 59% disapproval. Even the ghost of the Gipper might not be able to help overcome that.

John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board