Defense, Run Game Can Carry Fresno State to Pac-12 Title Game

On defense, the Bulldogs return six starters but lost most of their top tacklers. Fresno’s defense finished No. 10 in the FBS in total defense, allowing only 285.7 yards per game. Returning are defensive leaders NB Simeon Harris and LB K’vion Thunderbird. Thunderbird suffered a season-ending injury in the seventh game. Entz has depth on the defense, which should keep the yards per game total close to last year’s number. Below are the predictions for the games for Fresno State in 2026.

Week 1, at USC

Lincoln Riley has a proven track record of producing high-powered offenses, including multiple Heisman Trophy winners and video game-like numbers. However, Riley’s Trojans have yet to make the College Football Playoff. Riley brought in former TCU head coach Gary Patterson as defensive coordinator, which is a solid hire. On offense, USC QB Jayden Maiava was a Third-Team All-Big Ten selection after throwing for 3,711 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. The offensive line and running backs are very good. Fresno State’s front seven will have a tough time handling Riley’s high-powered offense.

Prediction: Loss

Week 2, Sacramento State

The Bulldogs have yet to lose a game to Sac State. However, the Hornets are making the jump to the FBS ranks this year as a member of the MAC. Alonzo Carter takes over as head coach and will have last year’s Fresno State backup, Carson Conklin, as QB1. Sac State didn’t make the jump to the FBS until after the transfer portal closed in January. Most of Carter’s transfers came after the Spring and are made up mostly of JUCO players who have played against little to no FBS competition. Expect Fresno State’s backups to get some serious reps.

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Prediction: Win

Week 3, at San Jose State

For the first time since 1968, these rivals are in different conferences. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo is in his third season with the Spartans and is looking to bounce back from a 3-9 2025 season. There is a three-man race to be QB1: Hawai’i transfer Luke Weaver, redshirt freshman Robert McDaniel and true freshman Daniel Rolovich. With only three total starters back, the Spartans will have a difficult time defeating the Bulldogs.

Prediction: Win

Week 4, Rice

The final non-conference game has the Bulldogs hosting Rice from the American Conference. The Owls run a shotgun spread offense, and former Miami (FL) QB Jacurri Brown will lead that offense. Second-year head coach Scott Abell returns only five starters from last year’s 5-8 squad. The defense was hit the hardest and Abell needs to rebuild that unit. The former WAC foes haven’t faced each other in the regular season since 2004. Fresno’s defense is more than capable of slowing down the Rice shotgun spread-option attack.

Prediction: Win

Week 5, at Washington State

The Cougars are on their third different coach in as many years, as Kirby Moore was hired to replace Jimmy Rogers, who left for Iowa State. Former UC-Davis QB Caden Pinnick transfers in to lead the offense. This will be another rebuilding year for Washington State, whose defense will have trouble shutting down the Bulldogs run game.

Prediction: Win

Week 6, Boise State

Of course, the Bulldogs’ first home game as members of the Pac-12 comes against former Mountain West rival Boise State. Widely viewed as the top Group of Six program, the Broncos return seven starters on an offense that produced 424 yards and 29.9 points per game. QB Maddux Madsen and RB Dylan Riley are back, but the top four receivers are gone. Fresno has won the last three meetings with the Broncos. The Bulldogs will take advantage of an unsettled WR room and make it four in a row.

Prediction: Win

Week 7, at San Diego State

While Fresno State has a winning streak against Boise State, it is riding a two-game losing streak against its other former Mountain West rival, the Aztecs. Head coach Sean Lewis is an offensive genius who gets back his top passer, top three rushers and top four receivers. Unfortunately, the defense lost a lot of production; only one of the top nine tacklers returns. If QB Jayden Denegal can stay healthy, SDSU will challenge for the Pac 12 Championship.

Prediction: Loss

Week 8, BYE

Week 9, Oregon State

It can be argued that there is no program more affected by the collapse of the former Pac-12 than the Beavers. Oregon State is 7-17 in the two years since the collapse and is now on its second coach in as many seasons. Head coach Jamarcus Shepard has a three-man race for QB1 between last year’s starter Maalik Murphy and transfers Braden Atkinson from Mercer and Brady Jones from Western Michigan. The Beavs return five starters on the defensive side of the ball, and the front seven is solid. Depth is an issue, so Oregon State’s defense will need to stay as healthy as possible. Despite last season’s lopsided yardage total (OSU 528, FSU 318), the Bulldogs have too many weapons on defense and will shut down Oregon State’s offense.

Prediction: Win

Week 10, at Utah State

The 2025 Aggies were a tale of two teams: potent on offense and loose on defense. Bronco Mendenhall’s offense averaged 409 yards and 31 points per game. However, the defense surrendered 440 yards and 29 points per game. Six of the top ten tacklers are back, including DE Carson Tujague, LB Bronson Olevao and S Brevin Hamblin. Offensively, the Aggies have lost a lot from last year. A drop in production on offense will need to be balanced out by better play on defense. The road team has won the last four games; make it five.

Prediction: Win

Week 11, at Texas State

After 13 years in the Sun Belt Conference, Texas State makes the jump to the new Pac-12. Head coach GJ Kinne is 23-16 in three seasons in San Marcos, TX. Kinne’s forte is offense, particularly the passing game. Redshirt sophomore QB Brad Jackson completed an amazing 71.3% of his passes for 3,224 yards with 21 TDs and 7 INTs. Three of the top four receivers return and the offense should be better after a year under Jackson’s belt. Kinne’s Achilles’ Heel has been the defense but he brought in Will Windham as defensive coordinator. The defense should be better but not good enough to slow down Fresno State.

Prediction: Win

Week 12, Colorado State

Jim Mora, Jr. surprised many by leaving the UConn program he built over the last four years to accept the job at Colorado State. The Rams are coming off a 2-10 season, while UConn is coming off back-to-back 9-4 seasons. Mora revamped the roster, but there are a lot of holes to fill. The longtime head coach has pulled off a few miracles in the past, and while Fresno State has lost three straight games on Senior Day, that streak will come to an end.

Prediction: Win

Week 13, Pac-12 Flex Game

The Pac-12 only has 8 members, which means 7 conference games if played against each member. Instead of having its members play 5 non-conference games, the Pac-12 has added a flex game to be announced at least 6 days before the game date.

Fresno State 2026 Outlook

Due to the flex game on the schedule, it is impossible to fully predict the Bulldogs’ wins and losses. Entz’s team returns a lot of production, which is rare for a Group of Six team to do after as successful of a season as Fresno State had in 2025.

While most may choose Boise State as the top team in the Pac-12, Fresno State has a legitimate chance to play for the conference championship. The Bulldogs return enough talent on defense to remain one of the better units in the FBS, and the offense has enough weapons to overcome some uncertainty at quarterback. If Entz can get consistent play from Martin or Mandal, Fresno State should be in the mix for the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Overall Record (minus the flex game): 9-2

Conference Record (minus the flex game): 6-1