Becerra Easily Leading California Governor’s Race Defined by Partisan Split, Poll Shows

Democrat Xavier Becerra holds an 18-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton among likely voters in the new poll from UC Berkeley, a stark contrast to June’s messy primary contest.

California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, right, speaks as Steve Hilton looks on during a 2026 California gubernatorial debate in Bridges Auditorium at Pomona College in Claremont on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The poll shows Hilton’s favorability rating underwater among independents, with 31% viewing him favorably and 59% unfavorably.  (Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading Republican businessman Steve Hilton by a double-digit margin in the race for California governor, according to a new poll from UC Berkeley. 

The Institute of Governmental Studies poll found about 55% of likely voters saying they’ll support Becerra, 37% backing Hilton and just 7% undecided.

Becerra’s 18-point lead marks a stark contrast to June’s messy and crowded primary contest, which included numerous serious Democratic candidates and remained unsettled until the very end.

Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, during a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco, California, on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. California will hold its primary election on June 2, where the top two finishers advance to the general election in November regardless of party affiliation.

“It’s shaping up to be a pretty traditional Democrat versus Republican general election matchup with strong partisan preferences kind of dominating everything,” poll director Mark DiCamillo said.

California’s electorate is largely Democratic — Republicans are outnumbered by Democrats nearly 2 to 1, and independent voters make up more than one-fifth of the electorate.

Partisan leanings appear to be driving voter opinions in the governor’s race, DiCamillo said: 88% of Democrats are backing Becerra, while 91% of Republicans are behind Hilton.

Chad Bianco, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, Xavier Becerra, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for California, and Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, arrive for a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on April 22, 2026.

“In order for Hilton to win, he really has to go after the Democratic constituencies,” DiCamillo said. “If you look at, for example, no party preference voters, sometimes you try to peel those off if you’re a challenger on the Republican side.”

But with a strong majority of independents viewing the Republican businessman negatively, “it’s a tall order,” he said.

“Hilton represents the Republicans. He’s the standard bearer. And the reason people are voting for him is because that’s what they’re voting for,” DiCamillo said. “Unfortunately for Republicans and for Hilton, there’s not enough of them.” 

The survey was conducted online in English and Spanish from Aug. 3 to Aug. 9 among 4,207 registered voters; a sample of 2,310 were considered likely voters in the November general election.