For all the emphasis California’s candidates for governor have placed on their sharply different backgrounds — Democrat Xavier Becerra, the experienced politician who’d be the state’s first Latino elected to the office, Republican Steve Hilton, the political outsider — the race is settling into something more familiar: a largely partisan contest driven by voters’ policy preferences.
A new poll out Thursday indicates voters are most keenly interested in the candidate’s ability to deliver on what it calls “traditional” Democratic or Republican policies — citing as examples expanding healthcare, protecting LGBTQ+ rights and opposing Trump policies for Democrats, and reducing taxes and regulations for the GOP.
The challenge for Hilton running in a heavily Democratic “blue” state where Republicans are outnumbered by Democrats in voter registration nearly 2-to-1, is how to appeal to more Democrats without losing Republican support, said Eric Schickler, co-director of the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll published Thursday.
“This is shaping up to be a fairly standard California general election, where Democrats enjoy a comfortable edge statewide,” Schickler said. “Hilton would need to make major inroads among traditionally Democratic leaning groups to make this a highly competitive race.”
The poll found 55% of likely voters supporting Becerra, 37% backing Hilton and 7% undecided, with the results sharply divided by party and ideology. It found 88% of likely Democratic voters support Becerra, and 91% of likely Republican voters support Hilton.
The results echo findings of other recent polls on the governor’s race showing Becerra with double-digit leads over Hilton.
“Today’s poll is further confirmation that California voters support Secretary Becerra’s focus on lowering the cost of living for California’s working families and standing up against the hateful and disastrous policies pushed by Trump and his endorsed candidate, Steve Hilton,” said Jonathan Underland, a Becerra campaign spokesman.
Hilton’s campaign however saw hopeful signs in the latest poll. Campaign spokesman Hector Barajas said it showed a narrower gap between the candidates than the last statewide poll. A July 15 Public Policy Institute of California poll showed Becerra leading Hilton 61% to 36%. Barajas said in a state where voters complain about affordability, Becerra is “the status quo candidate who represents more of the same failed policies that have driven up costs, crushed working people, and left California in crisis.”
“The more voters actually hear about Becerra’s record — the higher costs, the bureaucracy, the broken system he helped build and defend — the more they will choose change,” Barajas said.
In the latest poll, Becerra enjoys a nearly 3-to-1 advantage among Bay Area likely voters , and he also led in the state’s Central Coast region and around the state’s major cities of Los Angeles and San Diego. The poll found Hilton leading Becerra in the agricultural San Joaquin Valley and sparsely populated North Coast and Sierras regions.
Becerra was favored by California voters overall across all age, gender and racial and ethnic subgroups, but more so among younger voters, women and Black voters.
Becerra has pitched himself to voters as an experienced hand with his experience in politics as a former state lawmaker and attorney general, member of Congress, and U.S. health secretary. And Democratic supporters also have noted he’d be the first Latino elected governor — the state’s first governor of Mexican ancestry, Romualdo Pacheco, was elected lieutenant governor in 1871 and became governor four years later when Gov. Newton Booth resigned to serve in the U.S Senate.
But among likely voters supporting Becerra, 38% cited his support for “traditional Democratic policies” and another 38% that he would “aggressively fight Trump administration policies.” Only 6% cited Becerra’s political experience, and 1% that he is a Latino son of immigrants.
Hilton, a British immigrant and former Fox host, has campaigned as political outsider and change agent.
Among likely voters supporting Hilton, 55% cited his support for “traditional Republican policies,” almost twice the 28% who cited that he’s “not part of the California political establishment.” Only 4% of Hilton supporters cited his endorsement by President Donald Trump.
The poll found 49% of likely voters have a favorable view of Becerra while 43% hold an unfavorable view of him. It found 39% of the state’s likely voters hold a favorable view of Hilton while 50% hold an unfavorable view. Among likely voters not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties, 48% view Becerra favorably and 44% unfavorably, while 31% view Hilton favorably and 59% unfavorably.
The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from Aug. 3 to 9 among 4,207 registered voters throughout the state, of whom a weighted sample of 2,310 were considered likely voters in the Nov. 3 general election. The margin of error was 2.5 percentage points.