UFC Sacramento DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks

Discover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Sacramento on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.

If you’re hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let’s get to the action…

Main Event – Middleweight

Anthony Hernandez (15-3-0, 1NC) v. Gregory Rodrigues (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Hernandez ($8,600), Rodrigues ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Hernandez (-165), Rodrigues (+140)

Hernandez won eight straight from February 2021 to August 2025 and was closing in on a title shot. Then he met Sean Strickland in a main event in February and was dominated for two-plus rounds before finally getting knocked out. It was a highly concerning performance for multiple reasons I’ll touch on below. Strickland, despite all the success he has had, has just a pair of KO wins dating back to November 2020.

Rodrigues has won three straight and six of seven, with four of the six coming via knockout. The Brazilian is a big body for 185 pounds with an impressive all-around game. His July 2024 win over Christian Leroy Duncan in particular has aged extremely well. At age 34, I have no problem with Rodrigues in this spot.

Hernandez is known for his smothering wrestling game and elite cardio. He averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes despite the fact he didn’t land a single one against Strickland.

In the Strickland fight, Hernandez went 0-for-1 on his attempts and even the one he was credited with he didn’t fully commit to.

That simply isn’t going to cut it. Hernandez’s stand-up game is no better than average. He wins with pressure and control time. He has to go with the Merab Dvalishvili game plan to be successfu — if the first four fail, there has to be a fifth, six, and seventh attempt. 

I get Strickland is an underrated wrestler, and he’s very difficult to get a read on in the stand-up because he primarily just stands there, throws a jab and counters, but Fluffy needs to go back to his roots here if he wants to avoid a second straight loss.

I mentioned the size of Rodrigues earlier. He’s three inches taller than Hernandez. More importantly, he’s sporting a solid 75 percent career takedown defense. Gregory is extremely strong. I certainly can see Hernandez getting him to the mat, but I’m not sure I see rounds of top position and endless control time. You would hope that Rodrigues — an eight-time National BJJ champion — would be able to hang on defensively if he is taken down. 

Rodrigues is the better striker and he has more power. His striking defense is a bit inconsistent, but Hernandez isn’t a big volume guy because he’s always wrestling. He has just three career wins via knockout. 

This is a home game for Hernandez as a California native, and he’ll have the crowd behind him, but I’m not looking to back him as a favorite after the Strickland effort. I have enough respect for Rodrigues that I think he can pull the upset even if he gives up a couple rounds worth of mat control.

UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Rodrigues

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Co-Main Event – Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac (18-6-0) v. Vitor Petrino (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Spivac ($7,700), Petrino ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Spivac (+130), Petrino (-155)

Spivac is somehow still just 31 years old, which is amazing since he made his UFC debut back in May 2019. He snapped a brief two-fight losing streak his last time out with a unanimous decision win over Ante Delija. Spivac has been very consistent over the course of his career in the sense that he typically wins the fights which he’s expected to and comes up short as a projected underdog. I expect him to hover around the .500 mark moving forward.

Spinning his wheels at 205 pounds, Petrino moved up to heavyweight last July. He’s 3-0 in his new home, with a submission of Austen Lane, knockout of Thomas Petersen, and unanimous decision over Steven Asplund thus far. There’s a better than even chance we’ve already seen the best Petrino has to offer at the highest weight class, but he’s proven the ability to look good against the level of competition the UFC has matched him up against thus far. I would term Spivac slightly better than that.

The company is also doing Vitor a favor here.

In his three bouts at heavyweight, Petrino has weighed in at 248.5, 250, and 249. Now he’s going up against a guy in Spivac that typically checks in at a similar size. The UFC could have given him some monster that has to cut down to get to 265, but it didn’t do that.

Petrino should definitely have a speed advantage given the fact he’s a traditional light heavyweight. 

I think that could very well be the key to this fight considering Spivac’s stand-up defense isn’t great. He absorbs 4.23 significant strikes per minute, and while I wouldn’t say he’s a lumbering heavyweight with zero athleticism like a guy like Marcin Tybura, his movement on the feet isn’t all that swift.

More impressive than Spivac’s 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes is the fact he lands a ridiculous 59 percent of his attempts. His fight IQ is strong. In a bout scheduled for three rounds, don’t be shocked if we see Serghei try to wrestle late in a close frame. 

This is a clear dog-or-pass spot. I’m quite convinced Petrino’s early success at heavyweight is due to the competition level faced. That’s not to say he can’t get past Spivac, who has his own consistency issues, but I’m not paying $8,500 to find out.

UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Spivac
 

Light Heavyweight

Roman Dolidze (15-5-0) v. Reinier de Ridder (21-4-0)
DK Salaries: Dolidze ($7,000), de Ridder ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Dolidze (+310), de Ridder (-395)

Dolidze turned 38 years old in July and is riding a two-fight losing streak, so he’s firmly in must-win territory at this point. Roman has knockout wins over the likes of Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson and Kyle Daukaus during his UFC run, so he’s put in some good work, but Dolidze is still very much looking for his first career-defining victory. While a win over de Ridder may not exactly be that, it’s a good start.

RDR is in a really difficult spot. He’s also lost two in a row and will be 36 years old in early-September. A former two-division champion in ONE, de Ridder won each of his first four UFC bouts, including a submission of Holland, knockout of Bo Nickal and split decision over Robert Whitaker. He has since suffered back-to-back setbacks to Brendan Allen (TKO) and Caio Borralho (unanimous decision). 

Dolidze is more difficult to get a read on.

He’s typically low-volume on the feet (3.19 significant strikes landed per minute). That said, Roman landed 100 significant strikes in his win over Anthony Smith and 141 in a five-round victory over Marvin Vettori. Then you have his last time out against Christian Leroy Duncan in March in which he secured three takedowns and finished with ten significant strikes landed. There’s just no urgency on a fight-by-fight basis.

De Ridder is big and physical. At 6-foot-4, he’s two inches taller than Dolidze and will also enter with a two-inch reach edge.

In RDR’s case, the striking volume is typically low (2.47 significant strikes landed per minute) because he is so reliant on his wrestling game for success.

De Ridder has landed two-plus takedowns in five of his seven UFC appearances. The lone opponent he couldn’t get to the mat? Nickal.

Reinier’s striking is far from a strength, and his gas tank is suddenly a major question. 

To recap, there are a bunch of questions on both sides for this one. 

I feel slightly more comfortable with the de Ridder side, although you’re paying for considerably more than that at his price tag. I’d be weary of investing too heavily either way here.

UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: de Ridder

Think de Ridder gets back on track, and want to play the props for this fight on pick’em sites? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing actual betting lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.   

Heavyweight

Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-6-1) v. Shamil Gaziev (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Nzechukwu ($7,800), Gaziev ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Nzechukwu (+115), Gaziev (-135)

Nzechukwu has had a strange run since moving back to heavyweight in October 2024. He’s 2-1-1 in four fights. The loss was to Valter Walker via heel hook, so he gets a pass for that, and the draw was a fight against Marcus Almeida that he won have won via unanimous decision had he not been docked a point in Round 2 for an illegal eye poke. Nzechukwu could easily be 3-1 in his new digs with his lone setback coming against Walker and that wouldn’t seem too bad at all.

Gaziev joined the UFC in December 2023 with a perfect professional record. He knocked out Martin Buday in his company debut but is just 2-3 since, with the wins coming over Don’Tale Mayes and Thomas Petersen and all three setbacks (Brando Pericic, Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Jair Rozenstruik) coming via knockout. Set to turn 37 years old next February and staring a three-fight losing streak in the fact, Gaziev is almost certainly fighting for his job on Saturday.

You never know what you’re going to get from Kennedy on a fight-by-fight basis, but his upside is very high on the nights in which he does show up. Heck, this is a guy that has a knockout win over Carlos Ulberg on his resume.

Neither man here is a picture of perfect durability, but I would certainly wager Nzechukwu has the edge in that area.

Kennedy can be high volume on the feet under the right circumstances and this feels like a favorable matchup for that.

Gaziev is massive. He’s checked in at 260-plus pounds for each of his past three fights. Because he’s so big, his movements are labored and his striking defense non existent.

He lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute compared to 4.92 per minute absorbed. He also rarely wrestles (1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes).

A Gaziev win will probably require a ton of standing cage control. The more boring this fight is, the more it favors Shamil. 

In the end, the size difference between these two is too much for me to get past. Gaziev is probably going to weigh 30 pounds more than Kennedy on fight night. Nzechukwu is live for a KO win because of Gaziev’s durability issues, but my official pick in the latter via a dull decision.

UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Gaziev
 

Other Bouts

Lightweight
Marquel Mederos (11-1-1) v. Mason Jones (18-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Mederos ($7,200), Jones ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Mederos (+225), Jones (-280)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Jones

Women’s Flyweight
Carli Judice (6-2-0) v. Jeisla Chaves (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Judice ($9,400), Chaves ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Judice (-550), Chaves (+410)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Judice

Heavyweight
Anthony Wint (7-0-0) v. Terrance Chatman (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Wint ($9,900), Chatman ($6,300)
Vegas Odds: Wint (-1050), Chatman (+675)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Wint

Featherweight
Jamall Emmers (22-8-0) v. Lerryan Douglas (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Emmers ($6,900), Douglas ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Emmers (+295), Douglas (-375)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Douglas

Lightweight
Chris Padilla (17-6-1) v. Nasrat Haqparast (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Padilla ($8,000), Haqparast ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Padilla (+100), Haqparast (-120)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Padilla

Featherweight
Marcio Barbosa (18-2-0) v. Ryan Kuse (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Barbosa ($9,800), Kuse ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Barbosa (-950), Kuse (+625)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Barbosa

Lightweight
Gauge Young (11-3-0) v. Stan Dorsainvil (5-0-0)
DK Salaries: Young ($8,300), Dorsainvil ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Young (-135), Dorsainvil (+115)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Young

Middleweight
Jackson McVey (7-2-0) v. Wes Schultz (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: McVey ($8,700), Schultz ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: McVey (-190), Schultz (+160)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: McVey

Women’s Strawweight
Shanelle Dyer (7-1-0) v. Elise Reed (8-5-0)
DK Salaries: Dyer ($9,700), Reed ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Dyer (-750), Reed (+525)
UFC SACRAMENTO PICK: Dyer

Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.

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DraftKings MMA Scoring

Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered “Power Strikes” by official scorers.A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 PtsControl Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.