Politically mismatched couples face higher separation rates, UC Berkeley study finds | Research And Ideas

A recent study from UC Berkeley researchers found that politically mismatched couples are less likely to stay together than politically matched couples, with politically charged events emphasizing those differences.

Researchers Ernesto Tiburcio and Rachel Funk Fordham, both postdoctoral scholars at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy, examined voter file data from six elections across 35 states to track politically matched and mismatched couples over time.

Couples were identified using information such as addresses, names, current relationship status and age, while party registration was used to determine political differences between partners.

The study found that politically mismatched couples experienced a 14% lower likelihood of remaining together from one election cycle to the next. However, the researchers cautioned that political differences alone may not be responsible for the higher separation rate.

“Voters who enter into a politically mismatched relationship, and the relationship itself, might differ in ways we cannot observe, which can themselves affect its duration,” Tiburcio said.

The study revealed two key findings. First, couples in which the individuals are part of different parties are less likely to stay together. Second, after the 2022 Supreme Court Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overturned the legal right to an abortion, there were more newly formed mismatched couples separating, specifically in states with abortion bans.

According to the study, the ruling provided a natural experiment where there were two groups created: the states where abortion had been banned and states where abortion continued to be protected. In states where abortion was banned, there was an increase in couples separating. However, in states where abortion remained protected, there were relatively more politically mismatched couples remaining after the abortion ban.

According to Tiburcio, the research team was interested to find out “how prevalent (the connection between political differences and romantic relationships) was and how it had evolved over time.”

Party registration also cannot show how strongly or consistently someone holds certain political beliefs. Additionally, the findings represent averages across the couples studied rather than predictions or assumptions for individual relationships.

“Being mismatched does not necessarily doom a relationship,” Tiburcio said in an email.