Hernandez’s eight-fight win streak nearly saw him fighting for UFC gold, but it was broken by Sean Strickland, the current Middleweight champion of the world. Since then, “Fluffy” has spent a camp training with “Tarzan” and aims to return to the win column in front of a hometown crowd. Meanwhile, Rodrigues has won six of his last seven to establish a spot in the Top 15. The vaunted power puncher has yet to fully break into the title mix, however, and this second main event opportunity is his chance to steal Hernandez’s spot.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 15: (L-R) Gregory Rodrigues of Brazil strikes Roman Kopylov of Russia in a middleweight fight during the UFC 322 event at Madison Square Garden on November 15, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Betting Odds
Anthony Hernandez victory: -184Anthony Hernandez via TKO/KO/DQ: +310Anthony Hernandez via submission: +270Anthony Hernandez via decision: +470Gregory Rodrigues victory: +142Gregory Rodrigues via TKO/KO/DQ: +240Gregory Rodrigues via submission: +1800Gregory Rodrigues via decision: +850Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Hernandez is one of the division’s top grinders. His entire game is built around pressure in cohesive fashion. Hernandez builds combinations on the feet that close him into the clinch, where his elbows and knees hide takedown entries. Once on the canvas, Hernandez is excellent both at controlling and beating up his opponents.
12 of his 15 wins come via stoppage.
The first round, as if often the case, will be dangerous for “Fluffy.” He’s facing a strength and power disadvantage, which means the early takedown is unlikely to score easily. For some period of time, he’ll be stranded on the feet with a heavy hitter who’s gunning for the quick KO.
How to survive that period and extend the fight? Hernandez cannot be timid. His game doesn’t work going backwards. I would rather see Hernandez actively feinting and sticking his double jab, throwing the right hand with enough heat to earn Rodrigues’ respect. Whenever it’s safely possible, Hernandez should be level changing into a shot and forcing Rodrigues to expel energy on something other than punching him in the face.
This may be a case of weathering the storm. Hernandez is a gutsy fighter who generally isn’t afraid to scrap, but victory may rest on his ability to clinch or move his feet as the situation demands.
“Robocop” is a powerhouse. The jiu-jitsu black belt marches his opponents down attempting to clobber them with short combinations of tight power punches. Every once in a while, he’ll mix in a takedown attempt and show off his ground skills.
Hernandez has lost twice in the last six years, and both defeats stemmed from a body shot. Given the obvious fact that Rodrigues hits extremely hard, it should be obvious that some his firepower is directed towards the breadbasket. Generally, hitting the body of a wrestler is a good idea, but it’s especially sound strategy given Hernandez’s history.
Otherwise, this bout will come down to cage positioning and awareness. Hernandez is likely to have trouble controlling Rodrigues in the center of the Octagon, but getting stuck along the fence could be a problem for “Robocop.” He has to use his own pressure and physicality to keep his back to the center, but he cannot get too aggressive and allow Hernandez to pivot around him either.
In a straight up trade of punches, Rodrigues has a considerable advantage.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – FEBRUARY 20: Anthony Hernandez poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-in at Toyota Center on February 20, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Prediction
This is a compelling and competitive main event, as well as a fun clash of styles. The two potential outcomes are clear, yet that doesn’t make it any easier to decide which plays out.
In such a situation, it’s best to side with the outright “better” fighter. Between the two, “Fluffy” is the more accomplished and consistent contender. He’s beaten better opponents and climbed higher up the rankings in a similar period of time. In addition, Hernandez seems rejuvenated by switching up his training camp, which will hopefully help him endure that difficult opening round.
Once Rodrigues begins to breathe a little heavy, this fight is over.
Prediction: Hernandez via knockout
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