Cities next to the Lower Pajaro River have experienced five major floods since a levee system was built in 1949. Now, researchers are building a dynamic virtual version of the region as a case study to simulate flooding scenarios over time, while taking account of a variety of factors such as climate risk.
Led by UC Berkeley researchers Anna Serra-Llobet and Adda Athanasopoulos-Zekkos — with members of the Vienna Research Center for Visual Computing, or VRVis, contributing — the project is developing a digital twin, or a dynamic virtual simulation model, of the Lower Pajaro River Valley.
The model will allow researchers and planners to simulate flooding in three dimensions over time and test different flood-management strategies such as setback levees, according to a UC Berkeley News article on the digital twin.
In March 2023, the Pajaro River breached a levee, resulting in flooding, damaging many strawberry fields and the local agricultural economy. More than 8,500 people in Monterey County were under evacuation orders, including about 1,700 residents of the community of Pajaro.
The digital twin is designed to give researchers a way to monitor infrastructure over time. The model simulates how water could move through the region under different scenarios instead of relying only on traditional two-dimensional flood maps.
“Flooding is spatial and dynamic, but conventional two-dimensional maps can remain quite abstract, particularly for non-experts,” said VRVis member Irmgard Fuchs, who works in communication and public relations. “Interactive 3D visualization makes it easier to understand where water goes, which buildings or roads may be affected and how a situation develops over time.”
Researchers can use the digital twin to examine how potential changes such as modifications to the levee or other flood-management strategies could “change the picture,” according to the UC Berkeley News article.
The goal is to understand how different decisions could affect the communities, agricultural land and ecosystems surrounding the river.
“Pajaro is a particularly relevant test case because the area experienced severe flooding after a levee breach in 2023 and is currently undergoing major flood-protection upgrades,” Fuchs said in an email.
The stakes extend far beyond Pajaro. Approximately 1.4 million Californians live in areas at high risk of flooding annually. UC Berkeley researchers say climate change is altering floods’ patterns by changing precipitation and contributing to stronger atmospheric rivers in California.
This article was authored by Keerthi Eraniyan and Marein Terfort, participants of The Daily Californian’s High School Journalism Intensive.