Tropical storm Marie won’t hit California, but some of its leftover rain might
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Marie strengthening but staying well away from any land into this weekend.
Talk continues to swirl around newly-formed Tropical Storm Marie. Landfall is not in the forecast for California, but some indirect impacts are still possible in parts of the state.
Tropical Storm Marie formed off the coast of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The storm will get pulled northward and likely strengthen into a hurricane over open water.
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This map shows the forecast track for Tropical Storm Marie, which is centered in the bottom right of the frame. Hurricane Karina is shown on the left side of the image. That storm will also continue to move to the west.
As the storm drifts northwestward at the end of the week, it will hit cooler waters and weaken. This is when and area of low pressure to the north and an area of high pressure to the east could combine to draw upper level moisture from Marie towards Southern California.
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Marie’s center will stay well away from land, but winds high in the atmosphere could still pull moisture from the storm towards Southern California as early as Sunday.This frame shows one model’s projection of what Labor Day could look like. If this prediction is true, the Los Angeles area could see widespread soaking rain.
As of Tuesday evening, some forecast models continue to show the potential for at least an inch of rain somewhere between Santa Barbara County and Los Angeles County on Labor Day, with higher amounts possible in the mountains.
Rain of that intensity could lead to localized flash flooding. On the other hand, that amount of rain would put a prolonged pause on wildfire season in Southern California.
This outlook is likely to change repeatedly over the next couple of days as forecast models get a better sense of where Tropical Storm Marie is headed.
Impacts are not expected in Northern California. Depending on where the storm goes, a little bit of beneficial rainfall is possible in the central Sierra.
Anyone with plans in Southern California this holiday weekend or next week should monitor the forecast carefully.
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