Updated Sept. 2, 2026, 8:48 a.m. ET
The Fresno State Bulldogs (0-0) and No. 14 USC Trojans (1-0) meet Friday for a prime-time showdown in Los Angeles, California. Kickoff from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is set for 9 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze college football odds around the Fresno State vs. USC odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
The Bulldogs open the season with only 1 newcomer starting on the offensive side of the ball, but it’s a big one — QB Khristian Martin, who transferred from Maryland after playing just 5 games as a freshman. The 6-4, 240-pound sophomore has thrown only 17 passes (completing 11 with 1 TD). Fresno State, led by coach Matt Entz, finished 9-4 and 5-3 in its last season in the Mountain West. Fresno State is in its first season with the Pac-12 Conference.
Expectations are high for coach Lincoln Riley in his fifth season with the Trojans. USC beat the San Jose State Spartans 42-26 Saturday, but failed to cover as a 37.5-point home favorite as the Over (61.5) hit. QB Jayden Maiava threw for 286 yards and 2 TDs, building upon a Big Ten-best 3,711 passing yards in 2025. He has 2 of the top 10 receivers in the Class of 2026 — Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (4 catches, 36 yards, TD vs. San Jose) and WR Ethan Feaster (1 catch, 8 yards).
The teams have met 6 times with USC leading 4-1 (with 1 win vacated), including a 45-17 win in 2022.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
Watch NCAA football on Fubo!Fresno State at USC odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 12:55 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Fresno State +1250 (bet $100 to win $1,250) | USC -2500 (bet $2,500 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Fresno State +21.5 (-108) | USC -21.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Fresno State at USC picks and predictionsPrediction
USC 42, Fresno State 21
PASS.
Avoid this play. Fresno State (+1250) is far too risky to expect it to pull off the upset. Similarly, USC (-2500) is significantly too expensive to consider.
BET FRESNO STATE +21.5 (-108).
The Trojans failed to cover at home in their first game, and it wasn’t because they couldn’t score enough. USC’s defense, allowing 26 points against San Diego State, took the foot off the gas late, giving up 23 fourth-quarter points. This should be another blowout game in which the road side can cover late.
Fresno State has a capable, if inexperienced, quarterback in Martin, but it has a slew of returning players that know Entz’s system well. The Bulldogs were 4-2 straight up on the road last season and 2-1 ATS as an away underdog. Expect it to keep things within 3 TDs Friday night.
BET OVER 51.5 (-115).
Fresno State went 3-1 O/U in non-conference regular season games last season, putting up an impressive 36 points on the Oregon State Beavers on the road. The Bulldogs return 5-foot-11, 207-pound RB Bryson Donelson, who is a talented lead back and will keep pressure on the Trojans’ defense. He carried 140 times for 600 yards (4.3 average) and 5 TDs in 13 games last season.
USC should do its part here. It took the gas off in the second half, but tallied 28 points in the first half. With 341 passing yards overall, the Trojans will move the ball up and down with ease and should hit at least 35 points on their own Friday.
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