What will soon become Hurricane Marie likely won’t make it to California, but there could be some impacts far from the storm, including high surf, coastal flooding and perhaps some thundershowers in the Los Angeles Basin over the holiday weekend.
Where Marie is right now
The map above shows Marie’s current status, location and five-day forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center.
As you can see, this latest storm is well off Mexico’s Pacific coast.
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(MORE: What the forecast cone means)
Where Marie is headed
This is the part of the forecast that may have grabbed your attention on social media earlier this week.
In the past several days, there has been a split in the various computer forecast models:
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One set of models expects Marie to continue on a west-northwestward track this weekend into next week, keeping it far from land. Another set of models curls Marie on more northerly path, actually bringing whatever remains from Marie close to, if not over, parts of Southern California early next week. 
Our take
While it’s too soon to rule out either, we’re favoring the first scenario, keeping Marie far from land.
And even if Marie does move farther north, the combination of more dry, stable air and the cooler, but still much warmer than usual, water of the California ocean current would weaken it considerably, as was the case in August 2023 with what was once Hurricane Hilary.
Because of those factors, tropical cyclones are quite rare near Southern California. The only known Southern California hurricane hit San Diego before the Civil War.
Impacts, regardless
Even if Marie remains hundreds of miles away, California may still feel some impacts from Marie and the overall weather pattern in place.
High surf, rip currents, coastal flooding: As the National Weather Service noted, swells generated from Marie will push toward the Southern California coast this weekend, even if Marie stays far away. This could lead to large breaking waves and dangerous rip currents. NWS also noted there could be some coastal flooding, especially on south-facing shores. Some showers and thunderstorms: We do expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms over much of the West, including parts of California, from later this week into early next week. That’s due largely to a southward jet stream plunge into the West Coast pulling more moisture out of the tropics, including some from Marie. These thunderstorms could produce locally flooding rainfall, especially in hilly, mountainous, urban or desert terrain. 
What you should do
Those in California and the Desert Southwest should continue to monitor the forecast for Marie, in case of any forecast changes in the days ahead.
In the meantime, here are some tips:
Stay out of the ocean if you’re not either an experienced surfer or strong swimmer. If you do venture into the water, do so near lifeguards. Know if you live near any area recently burned by wildfires. Have a go-bag ready in case flash flooding and debris flows prompt evacuations of your area. Never drive into flooded stretches of roads or drive around barriers in front of flooded roads. Turn around and find an alternate route. Consider postponing any hiking or outdoor plans in canyons or mountainous terrain if thunderstorms are in the forecast. Thunderstorms miles away can trigger dangerous, fast-moving flash floods that can sweep through canyons with little advance warning.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.