LOS ANGELES — As October looms, I’m buying the Padres as a dangerous team.
The Dodgers occupy their own category.
If they play close to their immense talent, they’ll make it three World Series titles in a row.
But the Padres have a lot going for them. Setting aside the Dodgers, the Padres are no less capable than anyone else in the National League field. And they actually do hold two keys advantages over their L.A. rival.
For almost three months now, the Padres have played good baseball across the board.
Pitching? Going into Thursday night’s game against the Dodgers, a staff headed by Michael King, Adrian Morejón and Mason Miller posted the National League’s best ERA (3.59) in the nearly 70 games since the team’s early-summer swoon.
Yuki Matsui (1.71) and Bradgley Rodriguez (2.36) maintained their sharp form for a bullpen that, for now, looks more capable than any relief crew.
Hitting? They corrected course in a big way. Dating back to early July, they sit third of 15 National League teams in runs scored, first in batting average and second in adjusted runs created.
Defense? FanGraphs analytics placed them third in the league, behind the Cubs and Diamondbacks over the 69-game stretch.
Here’s a stealth strength that, if it holds up, will carry more value in the postseason: San Diego, over the same stretch, leads the majors in defending the stolen-base game.
Like the smarter franchises tend to do, this veteran-studded team has solved problems at a high rate over the season’s final half.
“We’re clicking on all cylinders and playing the style of baseball we expected to play,” said first baseman/cleanup hitter Ty France, 32, who gets my vote as the team’s MVP.
Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill made swing changes during the season that have paid off.
The front office has shored up left field several times.
After moving on from inexpensive offseason addition Nick Castellanos, who provided a monumental home run against the Cardinals, A.J. Preller and staff found enormous returns on the dollar with Samad Taylor, Luis Rengifo and Dustin Harris.
Catcher Ethan Salas, 20, has provided several clutch hits in recent games and defended well since arriving Sept. 1.
Another pro-Padres development, one that deserves more attention: They moved toward October in relatively excellent health, while health-and-sharpness questions have arisen for several potential opponents.
The Cubs, whose pitching staff has been hit harder than most by injuries this year, lost one of their stars, Alex Bregman, to a foul ball-to-the-face injury this week. It’s an open question whether he’ll regain form soon.
Last week, the Phillies shut down a good starting pitcher in Jesús Luzardo due to a shoulder ailment. And second baseman Luis Arraez left Thursday’s game with a sprained ankle.
The Braves won’t be regaining a pair of mid-to-upper-tier starting pitchers who’ve been sidelined this season.
Coping with physical ailments that could be a factor through the postseason, Dodgers star hitters Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are attempting to round into form.
The Padres, meantime, have seen all three of their projected core hitters — Tatis, Machado and Merrill — enjoy a full season of health availability.
And Thursday night, Nick Pivetta furthered his comeback from an elbow ailment that shut him down for most of the season.
The right-hander once again showed the basic characteristics of the rising fastball and 12-to-6 curveball that made him a top-20 starter in MLB last year, pitching 4⅔ scoreless innings.
Pivetta’s performance came one night after Machado, as he did at Dodger Stadium in July, bounced back from a few tough moments to hit a home run that helped beat the Dodgers. I’d give Miller and Morejon the edge over any two Dodgers relievers, although Tanner Scott, the ex-Padres closer, has had a very good season.
“We’ve just got to keep playing our game, Machado said. “We’ve been playing good baseball for a couple months now.” He added: “That’s what we got to continue to do and continue to rely on those strengths that we have as a group.”
This is a sturdy club, able to match up across several phase. It’s rich in October experience. With homefield advantage still attainable for the wild-card round, Padres fans may be in for another thrill ride.