Michael Smolens: Democrats want to party like it’s 2018 – San Diego Union-Tribune

Two years ago, improved Republican results in San Diego and elsewhere were widely noted.

In California, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris significantly underperformed compared with her predecessor Joe Biden in 2020, even though she won the state while losing the 2024 national election to Donald Trump.

This might not qualify as the bright side for Democrats, but as Republicans held their slim majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats flipped three California GOP seats.

The 2024 elections were part of the political ebb and flow that saw partisan swings in the last several elections. With the caveat that much can still change, Democrats have the clear momentum in California and nationally going into this November’s midterms that would be consistent with those swings.

Historically, the party out of power usually gains seats in the House and often the Senate in midterm elections. But there’s more to it than that when it comes to the intensity of the swings.

Each election is different, but it’s instructive — or at least interesting — to look at those previous elections, especially the midterms in 2018 and 2022.

Prognosticators seem cautious of talking about a “blue wave” this year, but they weren’t in 2018 as Election Day approached. In the end, it turned out to be a blue tsunami, as some described it, with Democrats picking up a net total of 40 House seats and gaining a majority. Republicans held on to the Senate.

Republicans lost seven House seats in California, including one straddling the San Diego-Orange County line that had been held by Rep. Darrell Issa.

Despite Biden’s victory in 2020, California experienced what CalMatters called a “red riptide” and Republicans won some of those seats back. Democrats retained a smaller House majority, but, crucially, gained control of the Senate by a slim margin.

In 2022, the absolutely certain “red wave” was largely a bust. Some projections had Republicans gaining more seats than Democrats had in 2018. It turned out to be a total swing of nine districts, but that was enough to give the GOP a bare House majority, though the party failed to regain the Senate.

This year, Democrats likely would be happy having that kind of result, which would return them to the House majority. Still, some analysts have pointed to 2022 as a cautionary tale for Democrats.

Biden’s approval rating was way down, inflation was way up, and he was still facing the fallout from the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal.

Nevertheless, “it was one of the strongest midterm performances by a governing party in decades,” wrote Newsweek.

Republicans won, but the trend still shook the GOP.

There are parallels, but Trump’s political situation this year is demonstrably worse. His approval ratings are at historic lows, and Americans are burdened by the high cost of living, which has been exacerbated by rising gas prices resulting from his unpopular war with Iran.

Voter enthusiasm also came into play. In 2018, Democrats — fired up in part by Trump’s assault on healthcare — had it, Republicans did not. In California, at least, the dismal Republican turnout was a big factor in the blue wave.

In 2022, the Republican wave was offset by heightened abortion rights activism, according to Thad Kousser, political science professor at UC San Diego. In June of that year, the Supreme Court struck down the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that established the constitutional right to abortion for nearly 50 years.

“That’s one of the biggest, most salient issues in our lifetime,” Kousser said.

In addition to responding to the court decision, Democratic-leaning voters were further driven to the polls by ballot measures protecting abortion rights in several states, including California.

Further, Golden State Republicans lacked any top-of-the-ticket pizzazz with the virtually unknown Brian Dahle presenting no competition for incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom.

It remains to be seen whether the higher-profile Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator running for governor this year, can motivate more Republicans to vote, with Democrat Xavier Becerra expected to win hands down.

In 2024, Trump brought more Republicans to the polls, while Democratic turnout lagged.

Folks who measure such things say Democrats have a clear advantage in voter motivation this year, pointing to special election and primary election turnout and results.

Trump has tried to boost GOP voter enthusiasm in various ways, but so far the needle hasn’t moved. He has repeatedly urged Republicans to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” His proposal to buy the election with tax dollars by giving Americans a $5,000 check if Republicans win the House and Senate was quickly forgotten.

At the moment, there doesn’t appear to be any galvanizing issue to spark Republicans, like Trump does for Democrats.

Kousser noted that Trump likely will try to shift the narrative, perhaps in a dramatic way, to turn the election around. The president for some time has tried to undermine confidence in the election and has made moves that, if carried out, could manipulate voting and election results.

Barring that or some other October surprise, Kousser said the dynamics of this election fit the past pattern that would favor Democrats.

“Every election since 2012 has been a change election in America,” he said.

We’ll find out soon if this is one of them.

Until then, San Diego political tea-leaf readers could mull this over. In 2018, longtime incumbent Issa’s once sure-thing Republican district had by then morphed purple. Trump’s unpopularity further fueled the political shift.

Issa’s prospects were grim, and he decided not to run for re-election as the blue wave swept over the country.

In 2020, he ran and won in what became the 48th Congressional District, based in solidly Republican East County. His reign there seemed certain for years to come until the redistricting wars among several states led to a redrawn 48th that now has a slight Democratic voter registration advantage.

Issa again decided not to run.

What they said 

Neil Stone (@DrNeilStone), infectious diseases doctor.

“Shuts down Ebola research – Massive Ebola outbreak. Closes CDC Parasitology division – Huge parasitic diarrhoea outbreak. Defunds screwworm research – screwworm comes back to the US. Bashes vaccines – measles roars back. Ladies and gentlemen I give you Health Secretary RFK Jr.”