While new development in San Francisco remains perennially stagnant, the condo market has begun to rebound after four years of declining appreciation, with starved buyers—many fueled by AI wealth—pushing up prices for turnkey properties in the most desirable neighborhoods.
“The market is hyper-competitive,” said Krysen Heathwood, Compass head of new development in the Western U.S., who noted that from June 2025 to June 2026, the monthly supply in the city was only around 500 units. “The turnaround started in February 2026 when the overbid rate doubled from 24% to 54%.”
In the first half of the year, she said, 20 condos, most of them on the north side of the city, sold for $1 million over asking price.
The stifled inventory has been exacerbated by homeowners who are holding onto their properties—and their low-interest mortgage rates, putting sales at all but a standstill. It’s estimated that 50% of homeowners have interest rates of 4% or less at a time when U.S. rates for a 30-year loan are hovering near 7%, Heathwood said.
And the scenario is not likely to change any time soon.
“The new-development pipeline in San Francisco remains constrained due to entitled site bottlenecks, high construction costs and lengthy permitting timelines,” Heathwood said. “There are just a couple of developments that may put a shovel in the ground in 2027. ‘May’ is the word here, as those projects have hurdles in front of them.”
Buyers have a few more options in the Bay Area. One of the areas where some new developments are cropping up is Marin County, where there’s strong demand and a severely constrained supply.
“The state’s requirement for new housing is helping developers get approval more quickly by the local jurisdictions,” Heathwood said. “These developments are in highly desirable locations. With inventory even more tight in San Francisco and overbidding at an extreme, buyers are repeatedly failing in the offer process. Therefore, we are seeing buyers cross the Golden Gate Bridge for these new homes.”
Those who are lucky enough to close a deal are buying turnkey units in the best neighborhoods that are within walking distance of restaurants and shops and that come with stunning views and that have lifestyle amenities ranging from pet grooming areas to bicycle storage.
Here are three projects in Marin County that have recently launched sales or will do so early in 2027.
Mallard Pointe Belvedere, 1 Mallard Road, Belvedere
For the first time in decades, new-construction homes are being offered on Belvedere Lagoon, a neighborhood a few miles north of the Golden Gate Bridge and San Francisco.
The development, which includes single-family and attached condominium residences, is designed to blend in with the natural landscape.
Sales are launching in September.
Number of Units: 23
Price Range: $3 million to more than $14 million
Developer/Architects: Thompson Dorfman/Sutton Suzuki Architect and Hunt Hale Jones Architects
Home Sizes: 1,200 to 4,000 square feet
Amenities: The front of the homes offer direct access to the lagoon and feature water views. The residences have elevators, large patios and waterfront yards, private garages with driveways, and are solar- and EV-ready.
Legacy at Lucas Valley, 7 Erin Drive, San Rafael Compass Development Marketing Group
This collection of 28 single-family homes, in the works for decades, offers new semi-custom residences, a rarity in Marin County, north of San Francisco.
Close to George Lucas’s Skywalker Ranch, the hillside homes overlook the valleys and hills of the Lucas Valley neighborhood.
Sales were relaunched in June.
Number of Units Still Available: 15
Price Range: $3 million to $5 million
Developer and Architect: Haven Development/Dahlin Group
Residence Size: 3,000 to 3,800 square feet
Amenities: Set on a private hillside, the homes offer an elevator option and are solar- and EV-charger ready. The interiors can be customized to suit each buyer. Each home comes with a one-bedroom accessory dwelling unit.
Compass Development Marketing Group Compass Development Marketing Group Compass Development Marketing Group Compass Development Marketing GroupMagnolia Village, 1141–1163 Magnolia Ave. and 7–13 Estelle Ave., Larkspur
Set a mile from the shops, boutiques and cafes of downtown Larkspur—also in Marin County—this collection of new-construction three- and four-bedroom townhomes encompasses five buildings joined by a pair of street-front retail spaces.
“Larkspur hasn’t seen a new for-sale community in more than a decade,” said Kyle Frazier, sales and marketing director of the development. “And Magnolia Village is something rarer still: new homes woven directly into the fabric of the town rather than set apart from it.”
Sales will launch in spring 2027.
Number of Units: 20
Price Range: To be announced
Developer/Architect: Edge Development Group and AJ Craig Development/WHA
Sizes: 1,400 to 2,400 square feet
Amenities: Each home has a balcony and a two-car attached garage; select residences have roof decks and mezzanine-level living spaces. Most plans have dedicated office and flex spaces.
Discover more stories. Read the latest luxury real estate news at Mansion Global.
Get real estate news in your inbox
Sign up now