Brian Dutcher says, “I like my pieces; I like this team.”
The computers aren’t so enthusiastic.
The three major metrics services for men’s college basketball have San Diego State listed between 69th and 77th nationally in their initial preseason rankings, the program’s lowest in seven years and outside what typically qualifies for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.
“I mean, you pay attention to everything,” Dutcher said at SDSU’s own media day Tuesday. “You see it. But you realize all the new pieces we have, and they’re unproven. The European guys metrically don’t have carryover, even though we’re adding 23-year-old transfers, we’re adding grown men.
“A lot of those metrics come from what you did in college. They don’t take into account what you did professionally.”
Bart Torvik’s T-rank is the most bullish on the Aztecs. It initially had them at No. 69 but recently elevated them to 58, presumably as rosters change with players having court injunctions overturned for an additional year of eligibility. That’s second in the reconfigured Pac-12 behind Gonzaga, and one spot ahead of Utah State at 59.
Kenpom, the oldest and best-known of the metrics, has SDSU at No. 74, fourth in the Pac-12 behind Gonzaga (14), Utah State (51) and Boise State (59).
The bad news: Kenpom’s preseason rankings have been relatively accurate over the past six seasons, with the Aztecs on average finishing within 10 spots of their projections and never improving more than 14 spots.
The good news: The last time Kenpom had them this low before the season, at No. 97 in 2019-20, the Aztecs went 30-2 with a roster full of newcomers and finished at No. 6.
Evan Miyakawa, whose analytics are available at evanmiya.com, posted a graphic dividing teams into projected levels: Title favorites, Final Four potential, hit-or-miss, happy to be here, and the rest. SDSU is among “the rest” at No. 77, fourth in the conference behind Gonzaga (6), Utah State (53) and Colorado State (73).
And how does he predict performance for guys who have never played a minute of Division I basketball?
“I have a projections model,” Miyakawa said in a recent X post, “for incoming high school, (Division II), and international players based on their box score stats, level of competition, and consensus recruiting rankings.”
With the Pac-12 not having a formal in-person media day or preseason poll, one of the only conferences in the country without either, it’s hard to say exactly where the Aztecs are projected to finish.
But this much is clear: They’re no longer the big dog in the conference for the first time in more a decade, no longer their opponent’s biggest game of the season, no longer with that giant target on their back.
Gonzaga carries that burden.
“The only expectations that matter are ours,” said Dutcher, whose team plays its first exhibition Friday at Arizona, ranked in the top five in all three computer preseason projections. “We have high expectations, I have high expectations. … I believe I can speak things into existence. I believe we’re going to be good. I’m going to demand it, they’re going to buy in, and we’re going to be a good team.
“Our intention is to win the inaugural season of the new Pac-12, and we’re going to do everything in our power to make that happen.”
After redshirting last season, Latrell Davis is expected to be one of San Diego State’s top contributors. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Injury update
It doesn’t sound like two key pieces will feature in Friday’s exhibition at Arizona.
English guard Latrell Davis missed several weeks during the summer with a separated left shoulder, then returned for fall practice and reaggravated the injury. He participated in non-contact drills last week but not live action.
The plan was to return to full practice Monday, but …
“Latrell, in typical Latrell fashion, did more than he was supposed to do (Monday),” Dutcher said. “He wants to play. But I told him when I met with him today, my intention probably is to hold him out (against Arizona), knowing that the regular season is right around the corner.
“He’s not a guy who’s going to go out there and all of a sudden let up and try not to get hurt. He only knows one way to play, and that’s full speed.”
Croatian forward Luka Skoric has missed several weeks with a groin injury. While he may return to practice later this week, Skoric is considered doubtful for Friday as well.
Nick Anderson is rehabbing offseason knee surgery, and Samson Mashebinu has a quadriceps injury that could keep him out for an extended period of time.
“That will give the other guys opportunity; let me look at them and see where they’re at,” said Dutcher, who would be down to nine healthy scholarship players. “But obviously the two (Davis and Skoric) we’re missing are potential starters for us this year.”
Recruiting update
Precious Sam, a high school senior originally from Ghana listed at (take your pick) 6-foot-11 or 7-0, cut his list of finalists to three schools: SDSU, Washington and Central Florida. Sam is expected to announce a decision later this week, with many considering the Aztecs the favorite.
Sam currently plays for Southeastern Prep Academy in Orlando, Fla., but previously played at AZ Compass Prep in Chandler, Ariz. Both Rivals.com and 247Sports.com list Sam as a three-star recruit as between the 23rd (247Sports) and 27th (Rivals)-best center in the 2027 recruiting class.
Sam would become the fourth prospect to commit of the six who took official campus visits to SDSU. Davey Harris picked SDSU. Keaundre Morris is headed to Saint Mary’s and King Rachal to Utah State. Mahamadou Diop and Lyris Robinson remain uncommitted.