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UC San Diego and the County of San Diego have teamed up to forecast hospitalizations for flu, COVID-19 and RSV, helping hospitals prepare for surges.
The forecasts are now part of the County’s updated respiratory virus report, which also tracks infections and emergency department visits.
Flu activity is rising unusually early in San Diego County this year, underscoring the importance of getting vaccinated.
A partnership between the University of California San Diego and the County of San Diego is helping local hospitals prepare for respiratory virus surges with new forecasts of hospitalizations for flu, COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
Developed through Resilient Shield, an initiative to improve public health decision-making and response to disease outbreaks, the forecasts are now featured in the County’s revised Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report. The team uses local hospitalization data to project admissions over the next two weeks, giving hospitals and other health care partners an indication of whether admissions are likely to rise or fall.
“Public health officials and hospitals need to know both what is happening now and what may be coming next,” said Eliah Aronoff-Spencer, MD, PhD, head of Resilient Shield, professor of medicine at UC San Diego School of Medicine, faculty in the university’s Design Lab and affiliate of UC San Diego Qualcomm Institute. “Working directly with our county partners helps us focus our research on the challenges they need to address. Here, that means helping hospitals anticipate a surge before it reaches their doors.”
The tools arrive as the County reports an unusually early increase in seasonal flu activity.
“The addition of the forecast to the Respiratory Surveillance report is another advance for public health created as part of the collaboration,” said Seema Shah, MD, MPH, medical director of County Epidemiology and Immunization Services.
A clearer picture of respiratory illness
The revised report from County Public Health Services is available online and as a downloadable PDF. Graphics at the top offer a snapshot of respiratory virus activity across the region, with details on the percentage of tests that are positive and emergency department visits for COVID-19, flu and RSV. Forecasts appear farther down in the report.
The County is resuming weekly reporting as flu season begins.
Resilient Shield,part of the Insight Net network funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, draws on expertise from multiple universities, national laboratories and public health agencies to develop tools that help communities prepare for and respond to disease outbreaks.
The new forecasts build on earlier work through the Resilient Shield partnership with the County of San Diego. Last year, the collaboration produced an interactive dashboard that combines environmental data sources to help South Bay residents understand the Tijuana River Valley sewage crisis. The partnership has also helped guide the County’s surveillance of the New World screwworm threat.
An early rise in flu activity
The County’s October 8 report shows that 8.0% of flu tests were positive during the week ending October 3, with 58 flu-associated hospitalizations that week. Since the surveillance season began July 5, the County has recorded 262 flu-associated hospitalizations and eight reported deaths.
“It is vital that if you haven’t gotten the flu shot or if you’ve been thinking about it to make the appointment or walk in as soon as possible,” County Public Health Officer Sayone Thihalolipavan, MD, MPH, said. “The vaccine looks like it will be highly effective against the strain of flu now circulating.”
Flu season generally starts around October 1, with health care providers typically urging vaccination by Halloween. In San Diego County, activity often increases in mid-November, though the timing varies from year to year.
Flu vaccines are available through health care providers and, for people who are uninsured, the County’s public health clinics. More information is available on the Public Health Services Immunization Unit website.
Additional information about Resilient Shield, part of CDC’s Insight Net, is available on the Resilient Shield website.
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