Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank fired coach Raheem Morris in January after a second straight 8-9 season.
Less than a month later, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan hired Morris as San Francisco’s defensive coordinator. Since taking over, Morris has reshaped the 49ers’ defense, regularly using five-man fronts and blitzing linebackers aggressively.
So far, the changes are working. The 49ers rank fourth in the NFL in scoring defense and fifth in yards allowed per game.
Morris faces his former team Sunday in Atlanta, where the 49ers will try to improve to 7-0. With several of their wide receivers injured, Shanahan and quarterback Brock Purdy may need to lean on Morris’ defense.
What should fans expect at Mercedes-Benz Stadium? Here are our predictions:
Offensive star of the game
Kawakami: Brandin Cooks. I’m presuming that Mike Evans will either be out or extremely limited (short week, artificial turf, etc.), which should point major 49ers’ receiving responsibility to … who now? Cooks hasn’t done much in his first few games this season, but he’s a veteran and he actually had a 101-yard outing with the Bills late last season. A few big catches — maybe a touchdown? — in this game could be meaningful.
Lombardi: Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers put together their best rushing performance of the season against Washington — they just didn’t showcase the ground game enough down the stretch. That’ll have to change Sunday, especially because the Falcons (No. 3 rush EPA) are so good on the ground. The 49ers will want to hog the ball with their No. 6 attack. Enter CMC and new father Kaelon Black.
Defensive star of the game
Kawakami: Osa Odighizuwa. Let’s put Nick Bosa in the Evans Category this week — if he plays, it’ll be mostly as a cameo. Better to give Bosa extra time off with the beckoning bye. Better to give every recovering headliner that treatment, really. Without Bosa, Odighizuwa has been the 49ers’ most reliable defensive lineman. I’ll guess that he runs his sack streak to three games in a row on Sunday.
Lombardi: Dre Greenlaw. Fred Warner joked that Greenlaw just had an extra bye week (he was suspended for the Washington game). So the linebacker should be fresh. He and Warner will be strained by Atlanta star Bijan Robinson, who excels in both the run and pass games out of the backfield. But Greenlaw’s presence will also allow Jaden Dugger to move back to a specialty “big nickel” alignment that should further bolster the 49ers’ pass rush.
The 49ers’ potential X factor
Kawakami: Eddy Piñeiro revival tour. He sure could use a big moment or two after his three extra-point and three field-goal (albeit all from 50 yards or longer) misses. This game might feel similar to the 49ers’ tense 16-15 victory over Arizona last year, when Piñeiro, in his second week with the team, banged in all three FGs tries including the walk-off 35-yarder.
Lombardi: Christian Kirk. The veteran receiver is in line to make his 49ers debut following a long battle with a calf strain. Don’t sleep on Kirk; he would’ve been the 49ers’ fastest offensive ballcarrier last season. Without him, the 49ers would likely be down their top six receivers. With Kirk, at least they’ll have one of their top six available. Hey, it’s something.
The key stat to track
Kawakami: Turnover differential. The 49ers are a middling +1 in turnover differential this season. The Falcons are (yikes!) -7, second-worst mark in the league. The 49ers need to play a clean game in this one, and they’re fully capable of it. I don’t think the Falcons are — Michael Penix Jr. will put some balls up for grabs.
Lombardi: Play count and time of possession. This will be a tractor pull. Or one can call it a tug-of-war. Both defenses can keep the ball in front of them and the 49ers’ dearth of outside weapons will feed to the bar-fight style. Since two strong running games will be Sunday’s primary determinants, the rushing attack that has more chances to grind will have the edge. Convert those third downs and stay on the field to win the arm-wrestling match.
Game prediction
Kawakami: 49ers 23, Falcons 21. This is an obvious potential trap game for the 49ers, but probably too obvious. Even if the 49ers sit almost every player with an injury question mark and muddle through most of this 10 a.m. body-clock start, I think their proud veterans will squeeze out a victory.
Lombardi: Falcons 20, 49ers 19. Short week. Early body clock start. Mass receiver injuries and an opponent capable of taking the air out of the 49ers’ pass rush and the game with its rushing attack. The ingredients for an upset are there. The 49ers won’t lose often this season, but they will enter their bye week at 6-1 — unless Purdy delivers another sensational special.