Nancy Pelosi remains popular with voters in the San Francisco district she has represented in Congress for nearly four decades. But a new poll shows limitations to what that support has done for her preferred successor, Supervisor Connie Chan.
State Sen. Scott Wiener leads the race for Pelosi’s seat with 47% of likely voters, versus 41% for Chan and 9% undecided, according to the University of Southern California survey (opens in new tab). Shared exclusively with The Standard, it is the only independent poll that has been released and shows that the Nov. 3 race remains a tossup.
Pelosi has campaigned heavily for Chan since endorsing her last spring. But voters who view Pelosi favorably aren’t flocking to Chan. Instead, pollsters concluded, Pelosi’s base is “splitting their votes,” with Wiener winning a slight majority who approve of the outgoing congresswoman.
That paradox highlights a possible disconnect between Pelosi and Chan’s bases, said Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC and the lead pollster. Although both women are close allies of the labor movement, the former speaker is less popular among ultra-progressive voters who are the backbone of Chan’s coalition, while Wiener is viewed as a more establishment Democrat.
“Pelosi has endorsed the person who has far left support … so her endorsement is not translating to Chan support,” Grose said. “On the other hand, Chan might be losing by a lot without the endorsement.”
While Wiener holds a slight edge even among Pelosi fans, Grose stressed that his lead is within the survey’s margin of error — with less than two weeks until Election Day.
“On toplines, it looks like Wiener is in the right place to win,” Grose said. “I wouldn’t rule her out, but I would rather be Scott Wiener than Connie Chan based on these results.”
The survey shows that Wiener’s support is strongest among voters who strictly identify as Democrats, while support for Chan is strongest among independents and those who identify as “very liberal” or supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Income level is another clear dividing line. Wiener’s support is greatest among voters with annual income of more than $100,000. Chan is more popular among voters with lower incomes, including those who self-identify as “working class.”
Those fractures closely mirror Wiener and Chan’s ideological divide. Wiener is considered a moderate Democrat, at least by San Francisco standards, and has campaigned heavily on his record of passing pro-housing legislation in Sacramento. Chan hails from the city’s progressive camp, and she’s closely aligning herself with labor unions and liberal activists who argue that Wiener is too close to business interests.
Grose said those ideological and demographic splits likely work in Wiener’s favor, noting that higher-income people and Democrats are more likely to vote in a non-presidential year.
“He’s drawing support from the kinds of people who tend to vote in midterm elections and who tend to have higher turnout in general,” Grose said. “Her base seems to be really progressive, very liberal.”
The poll, conducted by USC’s Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, surveyed 454 likely voters via email in English, Chinese, Spanish, Korean, and Vietnamese. The survey was conducted in the field Oct. 16-19, and its margin of error is plus/minus 4.6%.