The Billionaire Tax is losing support ahead of the Nov. 3 election, according to a poll published Oct. 29 by the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, or IGS.
The poll found that 5o% of likely voters intend to vote “no” on the proposition, with 42% voting “yes.” 8% of voters remain undecided.
Appearing as Proposition 40 on the ballot, the Billionaire Tax would impose a 5% wealth tax on California residents with a net worth more than $1 billion, estimated to be about 260 individuals. Combined, these individuals hold approximately $2 trillion in wealth.
The recent poll marks a shift in the electorate’s opinions from mid-September, when a previous IGS poll found that 45% of likely voters intended to vote “yes” on the tax and 42% intended to vote “no.”
The mid-September poll also showed a decline in voters’ backing for Prop. 40 from an August IGS poll, in which 48% of voters indicated support for the tax.
Together, these polls suggest a “gradual increase in the proportion of voters voting ‘no’ over time,” said Berkeley IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, who authored the three studies.
The poll, conducted between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25, also found that voting preferences for the tax differ greatly depending on voters’ ages. According to DiCamillo, younger voters are “very much in favor” of the tax, with 67% of voters under 30 in favor and 22% opposed.
However, for voters 65 and up, support is significantly lower, with 32% backing the measure and 60% opposed.
Prop. 3, another proposition measured in the poll related to progressive taxation, is projected to earn the majority of voters’ support, with 54% of voters currently in favor, according to October’s poll.
Of the seven propositions surveyed in the poll, Prop. 3 was the only one to receive the majority’s support.
Prop. 3 calls to extend a current tax on individuals earning more than $371,000, which would otherwise expire in 2031.
The high percentage of voters in favor of Prop. 3, according to DiCamillo, shows Californians’ “support of the progressive taxation structure” for state income taxes.
DiCamillo contrasted the support for Prop. 3 with the lower percentage of voters in favor of Prop. 40. He explained that Prop. 3, as an income tax, differs from the newfound asset tax proposed by Prop. 40, which voters are “more hesitant” about putting into practice.
Despite declining support, proponents of the Billionaire Tax have rallied to take the proposition across the finish line, including Lorena Gonzalez, the president of the California Federation of Labor Unions. She said in a virtual press conference advocating for Prop. 40 that polls historically underpoll Latine voters and young people.
“We’re going to continue to get out the vote for those people who traditionally are underpolled — Latinos, young people and working class voters,” Gonzalez said.