California voters are returning their ballots ahead of Election Day at a faster pace than in the 2022 midterms, fueling expectations of higher turnout as they elect a new governor and weigh in on more than a dozen state ballot measures.
Political Data Inc., a firm that tracks voter data and ballot returns, found that roughly 800,000 more voters had returned their ballot on Monday afternoon compared to the same time four years prior. Roughly 5.8 million, or 25% of registered voters, had returned their ballot compared to 5 million, or 23%, in 2022.
In the Bay Area, voter turnout on Monday was at 27% — roughly the same pace it was the day before Election Day in 2022. The Los Angeles metro area, San Diego and the Inland Empire, which encompasses Riverside and San Bernardino counties, was seeing the biggest uptick in early voting.
Paul Mitchell, the Democratic consultant who leads the company, said it’s likely that California will have the largest raw vote in the state’s history for a gubernatorial contest. Ahead of Election Day, the California Secretary of State’s office said a record 23.3 million residents were registered to vote.
“It’s looking really strong and within that there is a significant bump in Latino turnout,” Mitchell said. “It’ll be interesting to see how that gets unpacked after the election as to what was causing that, whether it was anti-Trump echoes of 2018 when we last had really high Latino turnout, or the (former Health Secretary Xavier) Becerra kind of effect of a Latino candidate at the top of the ticket.”
Statewide, 17% of registered Latino voters had turned in their ballot compared to 13% at the same time in 2022, according to the latest data from PDI.
Voters have until 8 p.m. Tuesday to vote in person or return their completed ballots to an official ballot drop box, vote center, polling place or county elections office. Election officials encourage voters who still have their ballots to return them in person. Mailed ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day and received by county elections officials within seven days afterward. During the June primary, 93,666 ballots were rejected for being late.
Jim Irizarry, the assistant chief elections officer in San Mateo County, said voters mailing their ballots on Election Day should should go inside a post office and ask for a hand-stamped postmark.
“Sometimes it doesn’t happen the same day because it might go to a different facility,” he said of putting your ballot in the mail box.
San Mateo County has had roughly 140,000 ballots returned as of Sunday, Irizarry said, adding that voting has been “brisk” at the county’s 50 vote centers. The county currently lists wait times for each vote center on its website.
Irizarry projects that San Mateo County will see roughly 70% voter turnout, which is similar to the last open gubernatorial election in 2018 that had a 72.63% turnout.
In Santa Clara County, Registrar of Voters spokesperson Steve Goltiao said they estimate a turnout between 55% and 65% — above the 54% turnout the county had in the November 2022 election. The county, which recently launched a dashboard tracking incoming ballots, had a 28% turnout rate on Monday. More than half of voters, 53.7%, have voted by dropping off their ballot, 42.4% mailed their ballot and 4% voted in person in the county so far.
Dawn Kruger, a spokesperson with the Contra Costa County Clerk and Recorder’s office, said they are trending toward a 60% to 65% turnout in the county — higher than in 2022 when the county had a 56% turnout. The county was originally planning for a 75% voter turnout rate, but pre-Election Day returns have been lower than expected.
“We thought people were going to be more engaged and interested based on past experience, but voters surprise us in every election and do something a bit different,” she said.
As California voters cast their ballots, they’re doing so with a grim outlook on the state, country and the economy, according to a recent survey from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. In the poll, which was released Oct. 27, 55% of likely voters said the state was going in the wrong direction, while 79% said the country was going in the wrong direction.
“If you’re looking for one word to describe Californians’ mood as they are filling out their ballots, it would be gloomy — very gloomy,” Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director, said in a news release. “Affordability continues to be a central concern, with majorities across demographic groups saying their incomes are not keeping up with inflation.”
California voters will decide on Tuesday who will succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, with the choice between Becerra and Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton. They’ll also weigh in on 14 ballot propositions that include a 5% tax on the state’s billionaires, an initiative to overhaul the state’s environmental review law and a measure to implement voter ID. In the Bay Area, voters will also decide whether to raise the sales tax rate to support public transit agencies facing deficits following the pandemic.
Voters can find their nearest polling place by visiting caearlyvoting.sos.ca.gov, and can track their ballot on the Secretary of State’s website by visiting california.ballottrax.net.