Import volumes into the U.S. dipped slightly in August, indicating that the traditional surge of drayage activity spanning late Q3 to early Q4 will not materialize for the 2025 peak season, according to a report from third party logistics provider (3PL) ITS Logistics.
That dip at the coasts follows a rush by U.S. companies to import goods before the onset of tariffs threatened by the White House. Because of that pattern, a surge of front-loaded freight is now moving inland, causing congestion in key rail lanes from the coasts and bolstering domestic truckload activity in select regions, ITS said in its “ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index.”
With so much inventory now moving across the U.S., shippers must focus on protecting it from rising rates of cargo theft as the industry enters the hectic holiday season, the Reno, Nevada-based 3PL said.
“For the most part, shippers have already moved inventory into North America during various frontloading surges throughout the year,” Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain for ITS Logistics, said in a release. “This freight is now being transported inland from coastal areas, which is reflected in high inbound ocean and domestic container volumes and higher outbound truckload rates from areas with expansive DC and warehouse footprints — including Southern California, Dallas, Chicago, and Atlanta.”
According to ITS, declining import volumes and peak season activity are occurring within another exceptionally tumultuous regulatory period for supply chain professionals. August 29 marked the last day of the de minimis exemption, subjecting 92% of all U.S. cargo shipments to new duties and causing nearly a dozen countries and global shipping companies to temporarily pause shipments to the U.S. That same day, a U.S. appeals court ruled most tariffs issued by President Donald Trump to be illegal. While the majority of shippers are waiting for the Supreme Court’s final decision — now expected in November— before making any changes, the ruling compounds the uncertainty.
In light of that background, ITS Logistics confirms that dips in demand in August will likely continue through October. By the numbers, U.S. container imports for August totaled 2,519,722 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), up 1.6% year-over-year, but down 3.9% from July’s near-record highs. The National Retail Federation projects that tariff policies will result in a 5.6% decrease in total inbound volume for 2025 — which, given year-to-date volumes, could mean a drop as stark as 17.5% is coming in the final few months of 2025.At the same time, freight that has already entered the domestic market faces its own challenges, such as a forecast of congestion to key rail lanes moving large volumes of front-loaded inventory. Also, organized cargo theft and freight fraud have reached record-high levels across both rail and trucking.
“In peak season especially, stolen inventory and fraud incidents create delays that cost shippers far more than the lost load itself,” Brashier continued. “That’s why it’s essential to partner with carriers who not only provide real-time visibility but also maintain rigorous onboarding and fraud-prevention standards to protect freight from port to final destination.”