Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 13’s game between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Utah State Aggies.

Fresno in late November is where Utah State has to drag its bowl hopes through the valley’s chill and noise. The Aggies limp in off a gut punch at UNLV, while Fresno comes off Boise and Wyoming beatdowns to stay on SDSU’s heels in the Mountain West race. Valley Children’s Stadium has become the league’s late-night filter, where quarterbacks feel the rush and one mistake can flip a season. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 13’s football game between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Utah State Aggies.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Utah State brings a real engine. Quarterback Bryson Barnes has thrown for 2,352 yards at 8.6 yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions, then adds 531 rushing yards on designed keepers and scrambles. They sit around 31.2 points per game, 404 yards, 6.0 yards per snap, and 0.460 points per play with a slight pass lean and about 157 rushing yards at 4.6 per carry. Red-zone work hums at 91.2% scoring, so when they cross the 20 they usually finish the drive. The problem is the opponent’s shape: Fresno State allows about 21 points, 306 yards, 4.8 yards per snap, barely 167 passing yards at 5.7 per attempt, and takes the ball away almost twice a game. Utah State’s offense is built to stress space; Fresno’s defense is built to squeeze it.

Offensively, Fresno looks unspectacular until you lay them on Utah State’s front. They sit in that 22–26 points per game band with roughly 326–344 yards and 4.9 yards per play, leaning run on just over half their snaps. E.J. Warner has 1,486 yards with ten touchdowns and nine interceptions at about 69% completions, but the staff has tilted the plan toward Rayshon Luke’s 587 rushing yards at 6.1 per carry and five scores. Josiah Freeman’s 33 catches, 378 yards, and five touchdowns keep Warner on schedule when they do throw. Across from them stands a defense allowing more than 32 points, 442 yards, 5.9 yards per snap, and a brutal 94.1% red-zone score rate while struggling against the run. Fresno plays slow, bleeds clock, and uses Luke’s cuts to drag linebackers downhill; Utah State inability to stop the run is written all over the tape and the numbers.

Utah State vs. Fresno State pick, best bet

There is still a real Utah State case, and I want it on the table. Barnes plus Miles Davis and Braden Pegan give the Aggies a higher per-play ceiling than Fresno’s raw yardage suggests: positive yards-per-play differential, explosives through Pegan’s 819 yards at roughly 16 a catch, and a quarterback who can turn man coverage into scrambles. Fresno’s offense is modest by every efficiency metric, red-zone scoring sits under 76%, and Warner’s interception count can spike if he is forced into second-and-long against pressure. Utah State plays with urgent air after a double-overtime gut punch at UNLV, and a single tipped ball or busted coverage can flip a game lined under a field goal. If the Aggies keep their red-zone standard and drag this into a track meet, their side plus the over both come alive.

I still land on Fresno State and the home chalk. The Bulldogs own the clear defensive edge, the stronger opponent yards-per-play profile, and the nastiest home environment in the conference, while their ground game hits Utah State at its softest seam. Fresno’s slow tempo, Luke’s efficiency, and a secondary that erases easy windows should force Barnes into long fields and third-and-medium against coverage that tackles. Utah State can score, but their defense is wired for shootouts, not for a methodical November grinder where every red-zone trip gets contested. This feels closer to Fresno -4 than -2.5 once you fold in defense, tempo, and venue.

I’ll ride Fresno State -2.5 with a final around Fresno State 27, Utah State 20.

Best bet: Houston -1.5 (-110) vs. TCU

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