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Matthew Stafford’s remarkable NFL MVP campaign continues on primetime in Week 12, as the LA Rams welcome a banged-up Buccaneers team to SoFi Stadium for a “Sunday Night Football” clash.
Sean McVay and the Rams have been connecting on all cylinders, winners of five straight. The top team in the NFC West looks primed for a deep playoff run.
Meanwhile, Todd Bowles’ Bucs can’t escape the injury bug, as Tampa Bay has dropped two games in a row.
The Rams are a 7-point favorite in this contest.
This Rams offense is on fire, averaging 32.3 points over its last three games. Stafford leads the league in passing touchdowns with 27, putting together a statistically sound season that mirrors Tom Brady’s in 2017.
At 37 years of age, a wide receiver stable led by Puka Nacua (75 receptions) and Davante Adams (10 receiving touchdowns) has Stafford turning back the clock. Notre Dame product Kyren Williams has remained steady in the ground game, too, with five rushing scores over the last five games.
On the Bucs side, key starters in cornerback Jamel Dean and pass-rusher Haason Reddick will be out for this contest. These two carry major weight in Bowles’ blitz-heavy defense, which attacks opposing quarterbacks at the league’s sixth-highest rate.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) scrambles against the Buffalo Bills. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Baker Mayfield is one of the biggest competitors in the sport, while his individual numbers of 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions are great, his lack of offensive support is astounding.
With big-play wideout Mike Evans on IR and running back Bucky Irving still out following a combination of injuries, Mayfield has had to rely on the likes of rookie Emeka Egbuka and overnight sensation Sean Tucker.
If Los Angeles can force Mayfield out of the pocket into scramble mode, mistakes are bound to happen. Jared Verse will be lined up against Tristan Wirfs in an ultimate battle in the trenches.
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The Rams’ secondary, consisting of Cobie Durant and Kam Curl, has been solid all season, accounting for 10 total interceptions (tied for fifth-best in the league).
Los Angeles ranks 2nd in defense DVOA. In Week 11, they picked off Sam Darnold four times.
I like Stafford and the offense to cover the 28.5 team total points in this matchup.
With so many different ways to score, the Bucs’ missing Dean in the secondary is critical, as Nacua and Adams will likely see more targets.
In addition, the Rams’ 64.4 percent red-zone conversion rate can capitalize on great field position created by the Bucs’ inability to move the football and potential Mayfield turnovers.
The Play: LA Rams Team Total Points Over 28.5 (-112, DraftKings)
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