Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 12’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Carolina Panthers.

Levi’s gets another Monday night and it feels more like an evaluation than anything else. San Francisco is trying to prove this version still deserves NFC contender status after a year of wobble and renovation. Carolina arrives as the supposed undercard with a young quarterback who just dropped his first real haymaker. Christian McCaffrey’s old employer walks into his current cathedral with a division race unexpectedly attached. That’s not a sleepy cross-conference date; it’s a measuring stick for both franchises. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 12’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Under the hood, the 49ers offense owns the structural edge. They sit at +0.049 EPA per play with a 48.43% success rate. The passing game is the engine at +0.143 EPA per dropback while the run game sits at -0.080. Carolina lives at -0.046 EPA per play with a 43.74% success rate. Their passing EPA is worse at -0.076, their rushing at -0.010. That gap explains why McCaffrey leads this offense in both rushing and receiving while San Francisco still feels balanced. He’s at 707 rushing yards and 712 receiving yards with eleven total touchdowns and 546 yards after the catch. Kendrick Bourne, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, and rookie Ricky Pearsall stack four more players above 250 receiving yards. The Panthers can’t match that distribution. They lean heavily on Tetairoa McMillan’s 748 yards and 75.44 total EPA, then hope Xavier Legette or Tommy Tremble wins the auxiliary downs.

The chalk argument says those numbers alone should shove us toward the favorite. Bryce Young’s offense is underwater on every primary efficiency measure. The Panthers’ rushing EPA at -0.010 is the closest thing to neutral; everything else drifts negative. San Francisco dominates situationals, converting 45.65% on third downs and scoring touchdowns on 64.10% of red-zone trips. Carolina sits at 36.96% on third down and 52.78% in the red zone. That drop-off matters when the field shrinks and playbooks tighten. The 49ers also hold their own defensively on third down, allowing 41.54% conversions compared to Carolina’s 43.38%. Pair that with a nearly 0.10 EPA per play offensive edge, and you get a profile that usually justifies laying a touchdown. Add Brock Purdy’s three-touchdown return and McCaffrey’s three-score eruption on Arizona. Kittle’s five touchdowns on only thirty targets help explain why the market reflexively grades San Francisco higher.

I still want the points. Carolina’s defense is slightly better by the global numbers. They allow +0.069 EPA per play against San Francisco’s +0.077. The Panthers force unsuccessful snaps at a much higher clip, with only 41.94% of plays against them graded successful. San Francisco sits at 48.76%, which is a big difference in down-to-down friction. Carolina has faced 639 defensive snaps to San Francisco’s 687 and still allowed fewer total yards. Their defense has 16 sacks and seven interceptions, beating 12 sacks and three interceptions from San Francisco’s side. Rico Dowdle sits at 5.0 yards per carry with 833 rushing yards and 532 after contact. He lets them call real offense instead of spin into pure dropback survival. When Young is protected by run efficiency rather than abandoned, his ceiling looks closer to Atlanta than those 100-yard clunkers. The Panthers allow touchdowns on only 52.94% of red-zone trips versus 63.89% for San Francisco. That combination of better success rate allowed and tighter red-zone defense keeps this from feeling like a blowout profile.

Panthers vs. 49ers pick, best bet

he market is hanging 49ers -7.5 with a total around 49.5 and a heavy San Francisco moneyline tax. It basically dares you to trust the helmet. San Francisco deserves to be favored, and the EPA plus situational edges feel more like -6 than -7.5. Their defense ranks near the bottom in pressure rate and sits in the mid-20s by coverage grade. That’s dangerous against a quarterback finally pushing the ball downfield to a true alpha. Young’s 448-yard, three-touchdown week still matters, even with volatility baked into his line. Combine Carolina’s slightly better defensive EPA, stronger success rate allowed, and more efficient run game. That hook above seven becomes precious. I’m comfortable fading a defense with 12 sacks over 687 snaps when the other side brings a better rush and a receiver driving 75.44 EPA.

Script-wise, I expect both coordinators to lean into what the numbers endorse. Shanahan should ride 21 personnel with McCaffrey and Brian Robinson handling volume while Purdy hunts that +0.143 passing EPA on play-action shots. They’ll try to live in manageable thirds where that 45.65% conversion rate stretches drives and drains possessions. Dave Canales should answer with Dowdle on duo and inside zone, chasing light boxes and forcing heavier bodies onto the field. From there he can build RPO and play-action shots to McMillan and Legette against a secondary that allows nearly half of opponents’ plays to succeed. Young doesn’t need another 448-yard masterpiece for this number to matter. If Carolina’s defense keeps forcing empty snaps at its usual rate, this stays tight. Their run game just has to keep them ahead of the sticks.

I’m locking in Panthers +7.5, expecting the 49ers to escape more than dominate. San Francisco’s passing efficiency and red-zone edge should win the leverage moments. Carolina’s defensive EPA and success-rate profile should keep the treadmill moving and avoid three-and-out purgatory. Dowdle’s ground efficiency is the glue.

Call it 49ers 27, Panthers 23, with San Francisco sweating the final possession instead of coasting through garbage time.

Best bet: Panthers +7.5 (-110) at 49ers

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For a prop lean, I like Christian McCaffrey 6+ receptions at +110, and I’d play it down to even money. He’s already at 74 catches on 96 targets for 712 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns, averaging about 6–7 grabs a night with 7.4 yards after the catch per reception. San Francisco’s profile screams pass-centric usage for him: +0.143 passing EPA per play versus -0.080 rushing EPA, while Carolina’s defense sits at -0.028 rushing EPA allowed but +0.147 against the pass with a 41.94% success rate allowed, which encourages Shanahan to treat throws to McCaffrey as extended handoffs. In competitive scripts where the 49ers can’t just hand it off and bleed clock, his target counts spike on choice routes, option routes, and screens, especially on third down where San Francisco converts 45.65% and wants the ball in his hands. With Brandon Aiyuk out and the rest of the receiver room more role-based than dominant, McCaffrey is still the cleanest matchup win against linebackers and safeties, and a number that he regularly lands on in neutral or trailing game states.

Best prop lean: Christian McCaffrey 6+ receptions (+110)

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