For some die-hard customers, the holiday shopping season in the San Diego area kicked off before dawn Friday.
Bleary-eyed bargain hunters stood in lines at retail stores to nab the best deals. Others devised precise buying strategies ahead of time, while some just came to soak up the post-Thanksgiving vibe.
“It’s a Black Friday shopping tradition,” said Erin Shetler of Del Cerro, one of a party of five girlfriends plus a baby in a stroller who made their first stop at Target in Mission Valley at 6:34 a.m., with plans to descend on the Fashion Valley mall to wrap up their day-long retail therapy excursion.
“It’s like the beginning of the Christmas season,” she said. “Thanksgiving’s over, we’ve now officially embraced Christmas.”
The holiday outlook for consumers and store owners this year is a mixed bag.
“Santa Claus is going to show up, kids are not going to be too disappointed,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser for market research company Circana. “But don’t look for the tree to be overflowing with boxes underneath.”
Some shoppers waited as early as 4:30am to wait in line to take advantage of the huge sales savings at the Best Buy store in Mission Valley during Black Friday. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
On one hand, the National Retail Federation’s annual holiday forecast predicts retail sales in the U.S. in November and December will grow as much as 4.2% compared to last year. If that materializes, it will mark the first time that holiday spending will exceed $1 trillion.
But on the other, consumers are still coping with inflation that eats into their everyday budgets. Also, a combination of financial factors that include trade and tariff uncertainty have kept the nation’s economy from moving into high gear.
Two days before Thanksgiving, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to its lowest reading since April.
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“Holiday ’25 is going to be a really tricky one,” said Cohen, who anticipates many retail customers will still spend as much money as they have in past, but they’ll buy fewer items this season.
“Average prices are up across many, many industries. Very few actually have lower prices than before,” Cohen said. “So we’ve got the consumer who’s basically saying, ‘I know prices are higher. I’ll still buy for everyone on my list, but I’m going to be buying less.’ “
Chris Bigsby, a 55-year-old sheet metal worker from Clairemont, was among 42 people who lined up in the dark before the Best Buy in Mission Valley opened its doors at 6 a.m.
“I may spend a little more” this holiday season, Bigsby said. “I’ve got a better job now.” He bought his 11-year-old son, Jason, a pair of Apple AirPods Max and saved $150 on a Black Friday deal.
“San Diego is just getting more expensive,” Bigsby said. “I used to take him to McDonald’s and get a meal and used to be about $10. Now it’s like $30.”
Brian Miller, owner and president of the nine locally owned Geppetto’s toy stores, said tariffs have shaken things up.
“Business is fine,” he said during a recent tour of his store in downtown La Jolla. “It’s good. But it’s made this year very tumultuous — figuring out how to navigate the pricing.”
Miller said his stores are not stocking one board game after its price went up more than 30% because it’s manufactured in China.
“I thought nobody was going to pay $60 for this board game, which is what we would have had to sell it for. So I skipped it,” he said.
While Miller said Geppetto’s sales are up year-over-year, other toy retailers he’s talked to in other parts of the country are not faring as well. San Diego, with more affluent shoppers, might be in a bubble, somewhat buffered from the economic turmoil hurting households.
Holiday shopping is the cornerstone for most retail businesses in the U.S., with an estimated 40% of all sales typically coming in the fourth quarter of the year.
Joseph Manneh was among the early morning shoppers at at the Best Buy store in Mission Valley. Manneh was being assisted by Darrion Leggette with Best Buy with selecting a new desktop computer suitable for video gaming. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
A customer carries a 55-inch large-screen television while shopping early at Best Buy in Mission Valley during the annual Black Friday sales. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Not the traditional Black Friday shopper, Donald Li took advantage of Best Buy’s early store hours to tire out his daughter, Naomi Li, 2, who woke up early and was unable to go back to sleep. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Jason O’Connor Bigsby, 11, of Clairemont, was excited to pick up a pair of Apple AirPods on sale at Best Buy in Mission Valley during Black Friday. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Christian Reyes and his wife, Pricilla Reyes, of Chula Vista took advantage of the huge savings during Black Friday sales at Best Buy. The couple was shopping for Christmas gifts for their kids and smart devices for their home. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Ramon Gomez of Golden Hills took advantage of the huge savings during Black Friday sales at Best Buy to purchase items he’ll need when he moves out on his own. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
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Joseph Manneh was among the early morning shoppers at at the Best Buy store in Mission Valley. Manneh was being assisted by Darrion Leggette with Best Buy with selecting a new desktop computer suitable for video gaming. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Natalie Maltezos lined up nearly two hours before the Target store at the Mission Valley Mall opened to redeem a ticket for a shiny silver swag bag, an enticement reserved for the first 100 people who came through the doors.
“I’m spending less” this year, the 33-year-old nurse said, “because of the way everything is now. … We have the same money available. We’re just choosing to save it for other things.”
To stretch their dollars, a lot of holiday shoppers have become more strategic. They go on their mobile phones to scout the best deals and comparison shop before making any purchases.
Joseph Manneh, a 29-year-old who works in construction, even used Chat GPT while browsing for a computer with his girlfriend, Daniella Mora.
“I went online and saw they had deals going on, and I wasn’t sure if I could get a better one in the store or not, so I decided to come here and see what happens,” Manneh said.
“I go on Meta on Instagram and ask when this website is going to have a sale, and it usually tells me,” Mora said, who estimated she saved 30% on hair care products.
A national survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics found that consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. That’s the second-highest amount in the survey’s 23-year history.
U-T reporter Roxana Popescu contributed to this story.