Three thoughts after San Diego State’s 23-17 double-overtime loss to New Mexico on Friday at University Stadium.
1. Does this compute?
SDSU’s loss created 40 hours of uncertainty as everyone waited for Saturday’s games to play out and the computers to process the updated data and spit out the results.
The Mountain West will reveal the championship matchup and site on Sunday morning.
Early findings did not look promising for the Aztecs.
SDSU came into the weekend ahead of Boise State, New Mexico and UNLV in the average of four computer rankings — Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI Rankings and SportSource — used by the Mountain West.
In updated metrics for the ESPN SOR and KPI Rankings, SDSU fell to fourth. Connelly SP+ isn’t usually updated until Sunday morning. The fourth metric, SportSource, is proprietary and not revealed publicly.
So there is some guessing involved here.
Connelly SP+ was most favorable to the Aztecs last week, which provides some hope for them. According to a Mountain West official, Connelly and SportSource are both considered “predictive” rankings, so that would benefit the Aztecs if SportSource mirrors Connelly.
This is like trying to solve an algebra problem with two unknowns (and two knowns still being tweaked). Or trying to project an election winner with half the precincts still to report.
Educated guess: If UNLV beats Nevada late Saturday night — the game was still being played when the Union-Tribune went to print — then the Rebels surge to the top of the metrics and play at Boise State in the title game.
SDSU’s best chance is if UNLV loses and the Aztecs somehow finish ahead of one of the other two teams.
A Boise State-SDSU game would be played in San Diego, since the Aztecs won the head-to-head matchup.
A New Mexico-SDSU matchup would be played in Albuquerque, N.M., since the Aztecs lost head-to-head.
New Mexico was far enough behind SDSU that it could be too much ground to make up in one week.
At least that’s what Aztecs fans are hanging on to as Sunday nears.
2. Bowl bound
Regardless of what happens Sunday, SDSU will still play football in December.
The Aztecs still have a bowl game in their future.
Which bowl? Now we’re back to equations with unknowns or incomplete election results.
There are seven bowl-eligible teams in the Mountain West this season — SDSU, New Mexico, UNLV, Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii and Utah State.
The Mountain West has direct tie-ins with the Arizona Bowl, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, L.A. Bowl, and New Mexico Bowl.
The MW also could place teams in ESPN-owned bowls, likely in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.
The Mountain West champion is expected to play in the L.A. Bowl.
Hawaii is expected to stay home in the Hawaii Bowl and New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl, unless the Lobos play in — and win — the MW championship game.
This could be a year that Boise State, if it doesn’t win the title, stays home for the Potato Bowl.
Fresno State played in the Potato Bowl last year and Utah State in 2023, so both teams are likely headed elsewhere. Aggies fans would probably travel the best to Boise, Idaho, though.
SDSU hasn’t played in the Potato Bowl since 2013, so the Aztecs could be a candidate. San Diego’s proximity to Arizona as a travel destination makes the Aztecs appealing to the Arizona Bowl.
An ESPN bowl, like the Frisco Bowl, is also a strong option for the Aztecs.
Bowl matchups will be revealed Dec. 7 during the Selection Show on ESPN.
3. Early signing period
As SDSU awaits word on its present, the Aztecs also have an eye on their future.
The NCAA’s 72-hour early signing period begins Wednesday.
SDSU currently has 20 verbal commitments and is expected to sign nearly two dozen players for the class of 2026.
Half of the commitments are from linemen. Eight others are skill players. The group includes 14 players from California as well as others from Texas (3), Washington (2) and Hawaii (1). La Jolla High School wide receiver Carson Diehl is the only local commit at this point.
The Aztecs are without a quarterback in the class. They could add one in the next few days, or simply use the transfer portal to fill out the QB room.
The opening of the transfer portal overlapped with the early signing period last year. The portal period has been pushed off a month — and shortened — this cycle. The 10-day winter window opens Jan. 2. The spring portal window has been eliminated.