By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
Is this finally the year the ducklings become the Ducks? That’s the question we’ve asked before each of the last few seasons, but this one feels different. There’s a real buzz about Anaheim.
The team’s blossoming core looks ready to take off thanks to a new coach who should have a real ability to teach them how to fly.
With many questions lingering about the roster’s underlying ability, the path ahead might not be smooth. A coach can only do so much. Still, it’s hard not to see Anaheim as a team on the rise.
The projection
Don’t mind the lack of a standings jump — there’s more substance behind it.
Last season, Anaheim had a minus-40 goal differential, but a minus-56 Net Rating to close the year. The Ducks’ 80 points were a fortunate outcome in two ways: It was better than their goal differential would indicate, and that goal differential was arguably inflated. Essentially, the Ducks graded out as a 70-point team. Now they’re at 81.
There’s a real chance they soar past that number this season with so many breakout candidates, though the x-factor is new head coach Joel Quenneville. His potential impact is factored in to an extent, and that’s part of the reason the Ducks jump to 81 points.
The possibility that Quenneville can coax even more out of this roster than expected shouldn’t be discounted either. It’s impossible to know for sure what his impact will be, but Quenneville’s presence behind the bench adds a lot of intrigue to Anaheim’s season.
The big question
How much of an impact can Quenneville have on Anaheim’s roster?
On Oct. 9, Quenneville will sit behind an NHL bench for the first time in nearly four years. In Oct. 2021, he resigned as coach of the Florida Panthers and was later suspended indefinitely over what the NHL called an “inadequate response” to allegations of sexual assault within the Chicago Blackhawks when he was coach of the team. Former player Kyle Beach alleged he had been sexually assaulted by Chicago video coach Brad Aldrich in 2010, and that members of Blackhawks leadership — Quenneville included — knew of the allegations and failed in their response.
Quenneville was reinstated, along with then-Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman and then-Chicago executive Al MacIsaac, on July 1, 2024.
After Anaheim hired Quenneville in May, he and Ducks GM Pat Verbeek spent chunks of the introductory press conference talking about the process that led to his hiring. Verbeek said that he felt enough due diligence was done to feel comfortable. “He recognizes that failing to ask further questions and that not following up and taking action were serious mistakes,” Verbeek said. “Nearly four years away from the game, he has demonstrated sincere remorse.”
Quenneville, who said he has spoken with Beach several times over the years and, he said, the morning of the press conference, called what happened to the player “horrific and inexcusable” and said he took “full responsibility for not following up and asking more questions.”
On Sept. 21, the Blackhawks settled a lawsuit with a second player — identified only as “John Doe” — who also said the team failed to act during the 2010 playoffs when informed of sexual assault allegations against Aldrich.
Quenneville, meanwhile, is free to focus on helping a talented group of young players get better at hockey. He, undeniably, is good at that portion of his job, winning more games than anyone in NHL history (969) beside Scotty Bowman and three Stanley Cups with the Blackhawks.
He works quickly, too. Quenneville’s potential impact is a model blind spot — based largely on his work in his first seasons in Chicago and South Florida — which was the primary reason we added coach effects to this season’s projections. In the Ducks’ case, Quenneville’s presence gave them a 12-goal, two-win jump, from 77 to 81 points.
In their final pre-Quenneville season, 2007-08, the Blackhawks finished with 88 points and failed to qualify for the postseason. A year later, they were a 104-point team that advanced to the Western Conference final. Beyond that, they’d improved dramatically at five-on-five (48.8 to 54.3 expected goal share) and had seen their young stars level up. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane became decent two-way players in their first seasons under Quenneville, Duncan Keith found another offensive gear, both in production and process, and Brent Seabrook took a step as a defensive star. By 2010, they’d won the Cup. Florida’s five-on-five gains in 2019-20 were a little less dramatic, but they still went from playoff observers to playoff participants. We all know what came after.
The question, especially in the case of the Blackhawks, is what portion of those glow-ups is attributable to Quenneville. There are worse fates, after all, than landing on a team with the 20-year-old versions of Toews and Kane. In strict on-ice terms, though, it made sense for Verbeek to look at his group — particularly players such as Leo Carlsson, Cuttier Gauthier, Mason McTavish and Jackson LaCombe — and see a gulf between its talent level and its overall on-ice results. Quenneville is a good bet to handle that bit of responsibility.
The wild card
Can Leo Carlsson become a true 1C?
Perhaps no player stands to benefit more from Quenneville’s presence than Carlsson. The No. 2 draft pick in 2023 made solid incremental strides in his second NHL season, playing 21 more games than he did as a rookie and scoring more efficiently (about 1 goal per 60 vs. 0.7). Anaheim also won his five-on-five minutes (though goalie Lukas Dostal had plenty to do with that) and he popped more as a contributor to shots and scoring chances in the offensive zone.
Carlsson still profiles as a do-everything, two-way center. One scout compared him to Anze Kopitar and Aleksander Barkov — strong, skilled, defensively gifted players who weren’t huge offensive producers out of the gate but improved quickly and steadily. He already projects as a high-end second-liner for 2025-26 with positive offensive and defensive ratings.
Ironically enough, Carlsson’s defensive impact dipped a bit in his final season under Greg Cronin. According to All Three Zones’ tracking data, he touched the puck and exited the defensive zone with it far less frequently than he did as a rookie. His skill is obvious, though, and the belief around the league is that he’ll put it all together relatively soon. Toews and Kane immediately found balance under Quenneville, as we said earlier, and Carlsson is Anaheim’s best bet to follow suit.
The strengths
This season, Carlsson was the lone Ducks forward to crack the top 150 in Player Tiers. Last year, it was Troy Terry.
Terry’s start to the season was slow, and so was his finish. But between December and March, he elevated his game despite his surroundings. That’s pretty much been the theme of his career: Solid play through the chaos in Anaheim.
While Terry’s power-play scoring took a hit, he still brought it at five-on-five, and that runs deeper than the scoresheet. The highlight of his game was his puck-moving. His rate of high-danger chances, according to All Three Zones, was comparable to Jack Eichel and Travis Konency.
Should Terry be the Ducks’ No. 1 forward? Absolutely not, and that’s part of the problem. But that’s the burden that has been placed on his shoulders when others were slower to produce. And most years, he’s delivered more than expected.
That should finally change if Carlsson can ascend to the next level. That would recalibrate the depth chart and slot Terry into a more fitting role.
A few other up-and-comers could be ready to take the next steps alongside Terry and Carlsson this year. When (or if) the Mason McTavish contract situation gets resolved, he is a prime bounce-back candidate.
McTavish’s plus-5.6 Offensive Rating leads the way in Anaheim, and a new coaching staff should be able to maximize that ability. That should help him follow in the footsteps of one of his close comparables, Dylan Strome. Cutter Gauthier could also emerge as a difference-maker after a promising first season in Anaheim.
Management bulked up the forward group with more veteran support in Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund. If Kreider is healthy this year, his speed and net-front presence on the power play give this offense a boost. Granlund should add more support, especially if his San Jose tenure is a sign of what’s to come. With these additions, the Ducks should have four lines to run.
The Ducks’ true backbone, though, is between the pipes with Dostal. He was Anaheim’s highest rep in this year’s Player Tiers, in 5A.
“He was playing with 21-year-old defensemen and had an unreal year,” one scout said.
That unreal year added up to 22.5 goals saved above expected in 54 games, which ranked ninth in the league among all goaltenders.
“I love Dostal,” another executive added. “I think he’s the next stud goalie.”
While Dostal has earned the hype, the second half of his 2024-25 is still a red flag.
“He had an amazing start to the season,” a former goalie said. “The numbers in the second half, they’re not the same. It’s a completely different story.”
That second half likely had less to do with Dostal’s skill and more to do with him losing gas behind such a dreadful defense. That was John Gibson’s undoing over the years in Anaheim. Eventually, a constant barrage of scoring chances against is going to weigh on a starting goalie. The difference now is that there is less of a bubble behind Dostal if his game trails off. The Ducks finally traded Gibson and replaced him with a much lesser backup in Petr Mrazek.
Still, Dostal is projected to be a top-12 goalie in the league this season due to how well he’s played across each season as a whole in Anaheim. The question is how much support he’ll have.
The weaknesses
One of the biggest offensive sparks in Anaheim came from the back end last year, thanks to LaCombe’s breakout season. But is he a true No. 1 defenseman?
LaCombe’s emergence into an all three zones threat earned him a spot in this year’s Player Tiers.
He denied opponents entry and limited chances in transition. When the Ducks were trapped in their own zone, his puck retrievals and skating helped get the team out of danger. He earned one of the highest rates of possession exits of all defensemen and contributed to Anaheim’s scoring-chance creation.
As great as LaCombe’s 2024-25 was, his projected Net Rating for next season is only a plus-4.2, which isn’t No. 1 caliber. Across the league, that role has an average value of plus-8.4 — that’s double LaCombe’s projection for this year.
Sometimes, teams can make up for weaknesses with surplus value elsewhere. But that isn’t the case in Anaheim. Radko Gudas, who usually skated on LaCombe’s right, isn’t first-pair-caliber either. He struggled to defend the rush and was exposed in tough minutes.
There isn’t much support below that first pair, either. As it stands, no one on this blue line is projected to have a positive Defensive Rating; their combined minus-13.4 ranks 32nd in the league.
Jacob Trouba absorbs big minutes in Anaheim, but that isn’t enough to shield some of their up-and-comers. Pavel Mintyukov has a team-low minus-five Defensive Rating, which is one of the worst marks in the league. Olen Zellweger hasn’t progressed enough, either. Drew Helleson doesn’t even stack up to the average No. 6 defenseman.
Few forwards in Anaheim have reliable defensive chops. With just three players in the positives — Carlsson, Ryan Poehling, and Alex Killorn — the forwards add up to a minus-17 Defensive Rating, which ranks 31st in the league. Some forwards weigh that down more than others; it’s what holds McTavish’s ceiling back (minus-3.8) and is a real weakness for Gauthier (minus-2.0). Vatrano, who was tasked with tough minutes last year, is down at a minus-3.0.
So it’s really no surprise that the Ducks finished dead last in shots and expected goals against last year at five-on-five. Since Anaheim has struggled so much to get out of its own zone, it has suppressed the offensive ability of this team.
The hope is that these players’ natural progression, plus Quenneville’s coaching, is enough to turn this group around. But it’s also possible that the instability from the last few seasons stunted some of that potential.
Could that be the case for someone such as McTavish, after his game stagnated the last couple of seasons? While Strome is one of his top comps, he has a few more concerning matches as well: Max Domi, Max Comtois, Casey Mittelstadt, and Josh Bailey, to name a few. Those are some worrisome trajectories for a player who was thought of as a franchise cornerstone when drafted. Without Trevor Zegras in Anaheim, there is even more pressure on McTavish to push past that and show that he can be a true top-six center.
On the wing, Vatrano’s scoring has helped make up for some of the young guns’ growing pains. But his scoring regressed back down to 21 goals in 81 games, after his career-high 37 in 2023-24.
Killorn’s production also took a hit, primarily due to dips in power-play scoring. He still showed some positive signs at five-on-five — he generated some rush-chances and set up his teammates with high-danger passes — but it didn’t translate on the scoresheet consistently enough.
One of this summer’s additions, Kreider, is also coming off a tough season. His scoring dropped to a career-low rate of 1.58 points per 60. So now it’s not just the rising stars that have something to prove; a handful of veterans also have to rebound. It just adds even more uncertainty to an already tricky situation.
The best case: 94 points
Quenneville is exactly what the doctor ordered behind the bench, helping Carlsson, McTavish, Gauthier, Mintyukov and Zellweger finally find their footing. LaCombe and Dostal continue their ascent and the Ducks make the playoffs in a weak Pacific Division.
The worst case: 69 points
Coaching isn’t enough to solve Anaheim’s questionable defensive game. Dostal falters without Gibson behind him and the kids once again don’t take the leap. The Ducks stay stuck in the league’s basement.
The bottom line
Anaheim’s plan might need continued fine-tuning, especially considering how much of it is based on young, still-unproven players, but there are more reasons for optimism than pessimism. A playoff push would be nice, but it’s not a necessity so long as they see reasonable growth in key spots.
References
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of Lukas Dostal: Ryan Sirius Sun / Getty Images)