Ridership on local buses and trolleys is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic much faster than the national average, but San Diego transit officials say that progress is jeopardized by a looming financial crisis.
Annual ridership on Metropolitan Transportation System buses and trolleys rose more than 7% to 81.2 million during the fiscal year that ended in June — only 4.2 million lower than the pre-pandemic ridership of 85.4 million.
MTS’s ridership recovery of 95% is the second highest for large transit systems in the nation and is well above the national average of 85%, according to surveys by the American Public Transportation Association.
Buses and trolleys have also begun to attract more riders who have cars and aren’t transit-dependent. Trips by such people, which MTS calls leisure rides, jumped by 44% in fiscal 2025 compared to fiscal 2024.
MTS officials attribute the improving ridership numbers to new services — including an express bus connecting downtown and the U.S.-Mexico border — and to more frequent trolley service and enhanced security at stations and on trains.
But in a comprehensive report given to city of San Diego officials just before Thanksgiving, MTS officials said looming deficits of more than $120 million per year could derail this progress with service cuts and fare hikes.
“Despite all these really positive ridership trends, in a few years we will hit a major budget shortage,” Julia Tuer, government affairs manager for MTS, told the City Council’s Active Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
Tuer said the fact that ridership progress comes at the same time as a looming financial crisis has put MTS at a key crossroads.
Projected deficits of $120.1 million in fiscal 2029 and $145.6 million in fiscal 2030 have prompted MTS officials to evaluate all the transit agency’s services for potential cuts.
Tuer said trolley frequencies and the viability of every one of MTS’s 100 bus routes are being analyzed by an outside consultant. A report is expected next spring.
Analysis and public outreach for a potential fare increase have also been launched by MTS and the county’s regional planning agency, the San Diego Association of Governments.
SANDAG recently finished surveying the public, and specific proposals to raise fares — which haven’t gotten an across-the-board hike since 2009 — are expected in January or February.
MTS officials have also begun exploring a possible November 2028 ballot measure that could raise the local sales tax half a cent to generate revenue only for transit projects.
The increase could generate about $300 million a year. It would be limited to areas served by MTS; North County communities would be excluded, because they are served by the North County Transit District.
Tuer noted that the Los Angeles and San Francisco transit systems already get millions from voter-approved sales tax hikes that generate revenue only for transit. It’s a 2-cent surcharge in Los Angeles and a 1.5-cent one in San Francisco.
Tuer said part of the problem has been a competitive job market that prompted MTS to raise base pay for its workers by roughly 40% over the last few years.
And although growing ridership has boosted revenues, MTS has also added discounted youth passes and free transfers between buses and trolleys in recent years.
The financial crisis comes with MTS ridership up across-the-board in fiscal 2025 compared to fiscal 2024 — 75.7 million to 81.2 million.
Bus ridership rose from 35.7 million to 38.2 million, while trolley ridership jumped from 39.6 million to 42.6 million. On the trolley, all three existing lines — blue, green and orange — saw increases.
Ridership on the Green Line jumped 7.1%, from 8.6 million to 9.2 million. Ridership on the Blue Line rose by 6.3%, from 24.4 million to 25.9 million. And ridership on the Orange Line rose 4.6%, from 6.6 million to 6.9 million.
Still, MTS’s ridership recovery figures are accompanied by a bit of an asterisk, because the Blue Line was extended in November 2021 to serve Clairemont, Pacific Beach, La Jolla and University City.
The line previously ran from the border only to Old Town. Now it runs to the UTC mall. Since the extension, the Blue Line has become one of the busiest light rail lines in the nation, according to MTS.