With garlands adorning the cable cars, giant ornaments along Powell Street, and the Macy’s Christmas tree gleaming over a bustling ice rink, Union Square looks the part of holiday cheer.
But the tinsel and twinkly lights belie the high stakes for one of San Francisco’s most important retail corridors, which is still recovering from pandemic-era hardships. After a year of lease announcements, building sales, and unabashed optimism, the holiday season is the proving ground for whether the momentum is real or a sugarplum-soaked mirage.
The big chains either failed to respond or declined requests to share data on sales and foot traffic. But there are some objective signals that the weeks between Thanksgiving and mid-December were a bit merrier than they were last year. Union Square’s foot traffic was up 7% from 2024, according to MRI Software, which measures brick-and-mortar retail activity. The area saw a roughly 5% uptick in individual sales transactions over 2024, according to payments processor Block.
“From the retailers that we’ve been communicating with, we’re hearing that sales are up 20% to 30% month-over-month,” said Laci Ravina, a broker with Colliers who specializes in Union Square. “Everyone is feeling bullish and recognizing that it’s back.”
She’s been fielding interest from retailers who left the square and are looking to return, as well as new entrants. As Maven broker Ali McEvoy put it, there’s a Union Square “gold rush,” with national and international brands eyeing the market.
“The tour activity is insane,” McEvoy said. She’s seen “a lot of shoppers and shopping bags” around the square this holiday season and predicts that momentum through the holidays will bring a spate of new leases in 2026.
But there’s still a gap between that vision and reality. Plenty of vacant storefronts dot Powell Street, as well as Stockton, Post, and, of course, Market.
People walk around at Union Square on a weekday. | Source: Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/The Standard
While a handful of large retailers like Pop Mart and Nintendo opened Union Square locations this year, local small businesses have been an increasingly important part of the retail mix. These entrepreneurs have also been feeling the holiday cheer.
Todd Masonis, cofounder of Dandelion Chocolate, said business has been “going great” since the team opened a location on Powell this fall, enabled by the city-funded Vacant to Vibrant program.
“We were a little skeptical when they first approached us, but it’s gone way better than we expected,” he said. Seeing the mix of both steady traffic and the holiday rush has given the team the confidence to start working with the landlord to sign a longer-term lease. Masonis imagines a future in which the shop sells fresh hot chocolate and pastries, in addition to boxed goods. “It just feels like things have turned around significantly down here.”
Willy Bietak, the 78-year-old former Olympian ice skater whose company has produced Union Square’s skating rink for nearly two decades, said San Francisco feels “like a changed city.” The rink’s visitor count as of Dec. 16 was up 15% from 2024, with the usual mix of families, couples, and groups of friends, he said. “The season so far has been fantastic.”
Visitor numbers at the Union Square ice rink have increased 15% year-over-year. | Source: Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/The Standard
Activities like the rink and the 12-day “Winter Walk” activation (opens in new tab) on Stockton Street have attracted locals and tourists alike to the square, according to Michelle O’Connor, owner of the recently opened Just for Fun (opens in new tab) toy store on Maiden Lane, which has been a beneficiary of the increased foot traffic. She has also noticed a boost in office tenants in the area that has kept weekday foot traffic steady.
The vibes, in short, have been festive.
“It’s been really, really amazing,” said Paul Carr, who opened The Best Bookstore in Union Square in November with his wife, Sarah Lacy. “The square has felt so busy and so alive.”
The bookstore always has a handful of people browsing its stacks and regularly extends operations by an extra hour to accommodate shoppers; for example, during Santacon, the store stayed open until 10 p.m. to take advantage of the crowds.
The holiday shopping bump plus steady weekday sales mean the bookstore is already profitable, Lacy said. If 2026 can bring a spate of new leases to Powell and the surrounding streets — not to mention a plan for the dead mall — the duo expects even better sales next year.
“There’s already a critical mass of shoppers, and if you factor in the fact that the mall isn’t even there anymore, it’s insane,” Carr said. “It feels so busy, even though the mall is gone. There’s still so much room to grow.”